Fantasy WR Preview

The wide receivers…the ultimate fantasy draft wild card. The dilemma on the doorstep of any owner drafting late in the first round – Do I take a borderline first round RB, or do I jump on one of the “Can’t Miss” receivers likely still on the board? The answer to that question depends on what type of faith you have in your drafting skills.

If you play it safe and take the RB (and no one can argue that it’s a sound pick), you need to make sure you do your due diligence to the WR depth out there. You are likely banking on your ability to grab a sleeper WR with upside later in the draft, once your RB spots are set. If you jump on the WR, it’s likely that you have more confidence in your ability to evaluate the running back depth that will be out there in rounds 4-6. Either way you play it, this is how these guys shake out.

HOUSHMANDZADEH!! Remember when this guy was a Can't Miss WR?

Due to the high volume of WR’s available, it is impossible to rank and adequately comment on each. Therefore, the focus of this blog will be geared toward which guys could be targeted in which spots.  And let me be clear. These are NOT rankings. Any savvy blogger could look up the rankings of someone else and post them as his own. These guys are sorted out based on their consensus draft projections, but the comments below each group give you some insight as you evaluate each group.

First/Second Round

(listed alphabetically)

·        Larry Fitzgerald

·        Greg Jennings

·        Andre Johnson

·        Calvin Johnson

·        Roddy White

Expect Andre Johnson and Roddy White to both go in the first round of your draft (12+ team leagues). Their consistent production over the last few years make them absolute studs, especially in a PPR league. Greg Jennings may not go until the second round, but he’s another one from whom you should expect consistent production.

Just to be up front...I consistently underrate Greg Jennings year to year. You can't dispute the value of a #1 WR who plays in an offense with arguably the best fantasy QB. You won't be too disappointed with Jennings as your top wideout.

Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson should make you think twice about taking either very highly. Fitz is Arizona’s only proven offensive weapon, which means defenses will be keying on him like it’s their job (actually, it is). On top of that, the unproven Kevin Kolb and an anemic running game anchored by a fragile Beanie Wells give me doubts about Fitz’s fantasy potential. It’s sad, because he is clearly the best wide receiver in football. Calvin’s value is tied to Matthew Stafford’s health. You really won’t see him put up terrible numbers, but you may not get 1^st/2^nd round return if you jump on him early.

Second/Third Round

(listed alphabetically)

·        Miles Austin

·        DeSean Jackson

·        Vincent Jackson

·        Hakeem Nicks

·        Mike Wallace

·        Reggie Wayne

I really like Hakeem Nicks and Miles Austin of this group.  Manning will be gunning to Nicks all year, and Nicks has the ability to take it to the house on any given touch. Austin should see a resurgence with Romo back under center, and has proven that he can put up monster numbers. Reggie Wayne is a perennial 1^st/2^nd rounder whose value is being hurt only by Peyton’s injury status. If Wayne happens to be there going into your third round, you should be salivating. Even if Peyton has a slow beginning to the season, Manning-to-Wayne has been a fantasy staple that you can expect to fire back up when Peyton is in there.

It's a safe bet that Eli Manning will complete some passes to his own players this year. Sorry for that burn Giants nation, but it should be some consolation that I think Nicks will be a fantasy beast this year.

Mike Wallace is a guy who’s been rated very highly, and I’m not sure it’s warranted. Big Ben ALWAYS finds him downfield for big plays. And don’t get me wrong, I expect him to have a very good season, but if you are expecting 2^nd round value out of him you may be disappointed.

Good lord! Karma's a... Anyway, you're taking a big risk that D-Jax will be healthy all year. On the flip side, he's playing for his money so he could be one to shine.

I’m not crazy about the Jacksons. V-Jax has one of the best QB’s in fantasy throwing to him, but we didn’t get a great look at what he can do last season. He could be a tremendous risk/reward pick. D-Jax just annoys me. But I have to be objective, so here it is. He is capable of putting up 40 points on any given week. He is also capable of putting up a dud on any given week. His presence on special teams also means that his risk for injury is greater than others.

Third/Fourth Round

(listed alphabetically)

·        Dwayne Bowe

·        Dez Bryant

·        Marques Colston

·        Percy Harvin

·        Santonio Holmes

·        Steve Johnson

·        Brandon Lloyd

·        Brandon Marshall

·        Wes Welker

·        Mike Williams (TB)

I’ll mention a few guys in this group. Steve Johnson needs to prove to me that he was not a fluke. I’m staying away unless he falls into the 5^th round. I mean, who expects anything out of a guy with a generic name like Steve Johnson. Any Johnson outside of Andre that doesn't change his name to something more interesting is asking to be a bust. Brandon Marshall would be first round talent on many other teams…unfortunately he has Dave Brown (uhh…I mean Chad Henne) at quarterback. Wes Welker is a monster in PPR leagues, and I don’t expect the presence of Ochocinco to change that.

Brandon Marshall (right) is hurt tremendously by the "factors" around him in Miami. He "took his talents" there, but didn't quite have the supporting cast to warrant selection in the first 3 rounds of a fantasy draft.

Santonio Holmes is one of the more dynamic players here, but the Jets offense will not be slinging it all over the field. So, he’ll have some big games and some ho-hum games. The rest of this list is riddled with question marks. The dynamic but unproven – Harvin, Bryant, Williams. And the veteran but somewhat risky – Bowe and Colston.

Fourth/Fifth Round

(listed alphabetically)

·        Kenny Britt

·        Austin Collie

·        Jeremy Maclin

·        Mario Manningham

The list dwindles a bit entering the 4^th/5^th rounds. This is typically when most #1’s have been taken, and teams are looking to start shoring up other spots (QB or TE…or if you have an idiot in your league, DEF). I can’t imagine why anybody would draft Kenny Britt earlier than the 8^th round, but that’s where he’s projected. Don’t be stupid. Let someone else grab him.

Kenny Britt plotting his next move. If you own him just hope it's a legal one and that it involves the football field.

Manningham and Collie are nice security blankets for their respective Mannings. Just note that Collie has the better Manning. Plus, Eli seems to love his slot receiver more than his #2, and Victor Cruz has been playing extremely well this preseason. Maclin possesses big play ability, but his health is a major question mark. For my money, I’m passing.

Sixth – Eighth Round

(listed alphabetically)

·        Anquan Boldin

·        Michael Crabtree

·        Braylon Edwards

·        Malcolm Floyd

·        Pierre Garcon

·        Devin Hester

·        Robert Meacham

·        Lance Moore

·        Randy Moss

·        Santana Moss

·        Chad Ochocinco

·        Sidney Rice

·        Steve Smith (CAR)

·        Mike Thomas

·        Roy Williams

Some of these guys on this list would have been killer picks in 2007. Anquan Boldin. Chad Ochocinco. Steve Smith. Santana Moss. Randy Moss. YES you read that correctly. Moss has been going in drafts, and might be worth a late (10^th or later) pick if he’s still there. Sidney Rice has 2^nd-3^rd round talent, but his value his hurt by two words – Tavaris Jackson. Want two more words? Charlie Whitehurst.

"Who dat?!?!..I'm going to try to get the ball to each one of you today, OK? Also, if you scored a TD last week, I'm getting it to someone else in the end zone this week." Brees keeps us on our toes when it comes to the Saints WR2. I, for one, am sick of being jerked around.

One of the more frustrating things for fantasy owners over the past few years has been evaluating the Saints WR’s after Colston. Moore had flashes of brilliance 2 seasons ago, and Meacham is finally healthy. Devery Henderson is thy thorn. Any Saints WR you take comes with risk that Drew Brees will spread it around like Scott’s Turfbuilder.

Late Draft Fliers

(listed alphabetically)

·        Danny Amendola

·        Davone Bess

·        Deion Branch

·        Steve Breaston

·        Plaxico Burress

·        Lee Evans

·        Jacoby Ford

·        Julio Jones

·        Derrick Mason

·        Jordy Nelson

·        Emmanuel Sanders

·        Mike Sims-Walker

·        Hines Ward

·        Mike Williams (SEA)

This could be where championships are won. Almost every year a late round WR emerges as a go-to guy, and helps a team reach the fantasy playoffs. This year, there are no shortage of candidates. Call me crazy, but I really like Steve Breaston in KC. Emmanuel Sanders put his name on the map in the Super Bowl, and could emerge as a Ben favorite. Problem is, this cuts into the value of “dewey” (think about it) extraordinaire Hines Ward. In Seattle, Mike Williams goes to #2 with the Sidney Rice acquisition, and has also lost the only QB (Hasselbeck) to ever make him fantasy-relevant. We shall see. Evans and Mason are looking to prolong their careers in new digs, but both play in a “run first” offense. Temper your expectations.

Best NFL bromance? Almost... Brady always seems to find Branch and Welker. I don't forsee the presence of Chad OchoJohnson to change that much.

Tom Brady and Deion Branch could have the second best bromance in the league (next to Romo and Witten), and I’d expect Branch to get the ball when he’s on the field. I wouldn’t touch Sims-Walker, Davone Bess, Jacoby Ford (or any other Raider for that matter) with a 10 foot pole.

Last, but not least, is the return of Plaxico Burress. No player's progress will be as watched this year as Plax. If you grab him this late, there really isn't much risk. I can't really see him having a terrible year. However, expect some excited arrogant Jet fan to jump on him earlier than he should go. Let them have him. Again, the Jets will not be flinging it all over the field this year.

Plaxico's performance against the Bengals likely got Jets fans' knickers in a bunch. Don't get sucked in to taking him earlier than he should be taken. If you grab him late, fine. But don't expect consistent WR2 production out of him.