NFL Conference Championship Weekend

Green Bay (12-6) at Chicago (12-5)           
Sunday 3:00PM



What if Da' Bears were all 14 inches tall?

Is there even a question as to who I am picking in this game? Loyal blog followers are privvy to my feelings on Jay Cutler, so they know what is coming here. The Pack is the trendy pick in NFL circles, and so far, I've resisted hopping aboard. But this time, I'm going all in on them.

Aaron Rodgers is playing at a level that would (if they end up winning a championship), catapult him into "elite quarterback" discussions. James Jones had a big game versus Atlanta, and if he emerges even further in this passing attack, the Pack will be tough to stop.

You could make the argument that Chicago has had the most consistently solid defense in the NFC this year, but that Green Bay's defense has been playing the best of late. I'm calling the defenses a wash in this one, and placing the game solely on the shoulders of the quarterbacks. Advantage Green Bay. Especially with me.

There is no way this guy is beating Aaron Rodgers and the Pack. Yes, that is King Douche Jay Cutler in all his glory!

This one will be hard-fought and low scoring, especially on the shores of Lake Michigan.

I thought it was a mini-Ditka!

THE PICK: Packers 17, Bears 13

NY Jets (13-5) at Pittsburgh (13-4)                

Sunday 6:30PM


All week I've been hearing the Jets fan call up radio circles and cautiously predict a Super Bowl appearance. Believe it or not, they seem to not be too scarred from previous disappointing finishes. Why?

One man - Rex Ryan - has changed the mindset of the Jets fan...

I lauded Rex's arrogant approach in my "Best in the AFC" blog, then killed it the week that they crashed in New England. Truthfully, Rex makes me want to root for the Jets to do well. Especially since I've always loved to see the Steelers go down.

I've gone two consecutive Jets blogs without mention of their greatest asset, so in this blog I'm bringing him into the discussion. There were countless calls to WFAN this week about the Jets involving this offensive weapon (not Tony Pepe...that's a different weapon)...enough to warrant mentioning him here.

BRAD SMITH!

The Jets have been bringing in the Brad Smith package on 2nd & short for most of the year (yes, that's a down on which most teams throw downfield). Some have predicted that Brad Smith would be throwing it downfield out of that set this week, but I don't see the Jets taking that kind of risk.

Will Brian Schottenheimer call this guy's number this week? Some are counting on it!

They will run the ball, run the ball, run the ball....as will Pittsburgh. The X-factor is that Pittsburgh has a two-time Super Bowl winning quarterback, while the Jets have a 2nd year quarterback in the process of finding his way.

Logic says the Steelers will win. An experienced, proven, playoff winner at QB. A solid running game. The best safety in the NFL healthy again, and ready to lead one of the league's best defenses.

But sometimes, you just have to go with your heart. The Jet fan deserves this one, and I will be happy to see them get it......

THE PICK: Jets 20, Steelers 17   

NFL Divisional Weekend

Baltimore (13-4) at Pittsburgh (12-4)           
Saturday 4:30PM



The newly engaged (Yes...you read that correctly) Ben Roethlisberger leads the Steelers on their home field against the high-flying Baltimore Ravens. How great are the AFC playoffs this year? This is the matchup I most look forward to this weekend, as both teams have the balance on both sides of the ball consistent with a Super Bowl team.

The Ravens are hoping these two can lead them to dominance on each side of the ball.

The Ravens have just a few more offensive weapons than the Steelers, but Big Ben is the great equalizer. With the Saints and Colts both eliminated last weekend, the Pats and Steelers are the only remaining teams that run out a Super Bowl Champion QB this week. In the playoffs, that matters a lot. By the way...he seriously is engaged.

In the year's greatest underdog story, Big Ben managed to nab this chick as the one he can molest for the rest of his life. Way to go, bro. You've come a long way since your "Drink Like a Champion" days (see "Best in AFC" blog).

This is a must-see game that could end up as a playoff classic. Many are picking the Ravens (and some have picked them as the AFC Super Bowl representative) but I find it very hard to pick against the Steelers at home in the playoffs. Both teams have very good defenses, and since they are both AFC North teams, they know each other well. Translation - low scoring game.

THE PICK: Steelers 17, Ravens 13

Green Bay (11-6) at Atlanta (13-3)                

Saturday 8:00PM


Everybody LOVES the Pack in the NFC (except me last week, apparently). They are the trendy pick to make a run and quite honestly, the fact that James Starks went nuts in Philly last week is a very good sign for them. They have the best defense of any remaining team in the NFC, and they could be playing their best football at the right time.

James Starks saw the field so little this regular season, it was hard to even find this picture of him IN uniform. He proved last weekend that he can be a difference maker, and he could be the key to the Packers hopes of advancement.

The Falcons have almost been a forgotten team this year when some mention the league's elite. They have been extremely successful, but seem to lack that defining moment this year that makes people say "Wow, the Falcons are the real deal..." Just to give you an idea, the Packers had that moment (beating the Giants and Bears in consecutive weeks to make the playoffs). They had some quality wins (Ravens), but did not seem to gain much notoriety, despite winning the most competitive division in the NFC.


Maybe the Falcons haven't gotten that much recognition because their coach's name is "Mike Smith".  As vanilla as his name is, this guy can coach.

I picked them weeks ago to go to the Super Bowl in my "Best in the NFC" blog, and I'm sticking with the pick. They control the time of possession clock with Turner, and Matty Ice is able to find White and Tony Gonzalez enough in the passing game to get the Falcons to the NFC Championship.

THE PICK: Falcons 35, Packers 28   

Seattle (8-9) at Chicago (11-5)                  
Sunday 1:00PM

 I'm going to make this statement with a straight face, and with some conviction. The Seattle Seahawks have a legitimate shot to HOST the NFC Championship game. If they are able to keep it rolling against Chicago, and the Packers upset the Falcons, Qwest Field is getting the NFC title game.

Hmm..In school they always taught me that a "u" must come after a Q....what the hell? 

So that's the rah-rah involving the Seahawks, but did you seriously think that I would blog about this game without pointing out that Bears QB Jay Cutler is a total douche. My loyal readers know exactly how the Pepevibe feels about Cutler, and I'm sticking to it. He stinks, takes risks, and is not a Super Bowl QB.

Rumor has it that the Seahawks D will be wearing these under their pads this weekend to properly greet Jay Cutler. See the "Best in the NFC" blog for a particularly douchey picture of Cutler.

Unfortunately, the Bears D is just too damn good for Seattle to do to it what it did to New Orleans. And so, we wait another week for Cutler to be exposed. Make no bones about it, I'll be rooting HARD for the Seahawks in this one, but it will take another miracle...

THE PICK: Bears 31, Seahawks 10

New York Jets (12-5) at New England Patriots (14-2)                
Sunday 4:30PM



OK, here we go. All week long, Jets fans have BEGGED me not to pick the Jets to win. Maybe it had something to do with my 0-4 showing in the wild card games. I dogged both the Jets and Nick Folk, and both proved me wrong....thanks in part to Jim Caldwell's Herman Edwards-like clock management.

Sorry Jets fans, but this guy screwed me so many times as a Cowboy that I just figured it was inevitable. I guess he screwed me again by making the kick that sent me to 0-4 on my picks.

This game has generated such a buzz in the New York area, but the Jets are honestly up against it this week. In Week Two, the Jets thumped the Pats 28-14 and looked good doing it. At the time, it looked as though the balance of power was shifting in the AFC East. However, after some uninspired wins (Broncos, Lions, Browns) that were almost losses, the Jets hardly looked like an AFC power.

True to form, Brady and company embarrassed and humiliated Gang Green on a national stage. The Jets looked lost and the Patriots looked unstoppable. They might be. The amazing thing is that the Pats are rolling with almost no other "big names" on offense. They are a collection of role players with puppet master Tom Brady orchestrating a well-oiled offensive machine.

Tom Brady promised to throw at Antonio Cromartie 10 times on Sunday - once for each of his kids. Wait, where are the other 7?

The Jets need a big day on the ground in order to control the clock and keep it out of Brady's hands. They have proven that they are capable of going into Foxboro and winning, but they haven't done it in the playoffs. They get their shot this weekend to change the tide.


Moxie, swagger, and confidence go a long way at this stage in the game, and the Jets have the playoff experience to hang (within 30 minutes of the Super Bowl last season).

I picked the Patriots earlier in the year to come out of the AFC and win the Super Bowl, but I have to take this opportunity to tweak the Jet fan. Especially after receiving so many "0-4" texts after last weeks picks.

Sorry Jets fans, but...

THE PICK: Jets 31, Patriots 21

NFL Wild Card Weekend

New Orleans (11-5) at Seattle (7-9)           
Saturday 4:30PM

Pete left USC in shambles (with NCAA sanctions) for the greener pastures of the (7-9) Seattle Seahawks. If Justin Forsett's fantasy owners could get their hands on you...

The 5^th seeded Saints visit the 4^th seeded NFC West Champion Seahawks. That just sounds odd to say. If Seattle had lost to St. Louis in Week 17 (to finish 6-10), they would have the EIGHTH pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. Wow…

Drew Brees has a proven track record as a winner in the playoffs. New Orleans is decimated at running back (Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas both on IR), but they have been succeeding with different faces all year long. Expect Julius Jones to get 10-13 carries, and Brees to supplement the running game with short passes out of the backfield to Reggie Bush.

Pete Carroll thinks he is sly by withholding who their starting QB is going to be, but it doesn’t matter because they both suck. Look for Seattle to target a QB in this year’s draft (might have been easier to do if they had lost that last game….eh?) Expect the Seahawks to stay in the game until the opening kickoff.

This game has to be played at some point, so might as well get it out of the way first. At least there is a marquee game in prime time…

THE PICK: Saints 38, Seahawks 3

New York (11-5) at Indianapolis (10-6)                

Saturday 8:00PM

Peyton and Rex square off. This should be a good one!

Another game in which the road “underdog” actually has a better record than the host – yet a much different situation. ..

This home division champion has a QB who has taken them to 2 Super Bowls, winning once. They have had a small army of faces take turns in their backfield this year (Joseph Addai, Donald Brown, Mike Hart, Javarris James, and now Dominic Rhodes.

Sidebar – Did anyone expect to see Dominic Rhodes running productively in the NFL ever again?

Peyton seems to have some type of magical pixie dust that he sprinkles on little known players which makes them good. OK, what I just typed came out really wrong.  You get the picture. Any team with Peyton Manning has a real shot to win any game in which it plays. Period. That said, their defense has given up over 200 points the past 7 games, so they need to stop somebody at some point if they expect to win.

The Jets, on the other hand, have been both lauded and killed by Pepevibe this year. They have a question “mark” in the health of Mark Sanchez (bahhh-zing). They’ve had some key injuries, but some of their most important offensive weapons (LT, Greene, Braylon, Holmes, Keller) have stayed healthy.

Expect a heavy dose of Tomlinson and Greene in this one, and not just because Sanchez is banged up. The Jets need to dominate time of possession to keep it out of Peyton’s hands.

Prediction: Nick Folk will miss a big kick in a big spot that costs the Jets dearly…

THE PICK: Colts 31, Jets 28   

Baltimore (12-4) at Kansas City (10-6)                  
Sunday 1:00PM

KC needs Jamaal Charles to take the game over if they want to have a shot at knocking off the Ravens - the preseason Super Bowl pick of many a sports analyst.

And here we have another matchup in which the higher seeded home team has a worse record than the visitor. Some might say this is the “Seahawks-Saints” of Sunday’s slate, but I’m giving the Chiefs more than a puncher’s chance here.

Their offense has really come into its own late in the season (excluding the Brodie Croyle game), and they are capable of moving the ball and keeping it out of Flacco & Co.’s hands. They have their own version of Ray Rice in Jamaal Charles, who they have kept fresh by having him split carries with Thomas Jones.

Expect the Chiefs to unleash a heavy dose of touches for Charles in this one, and it will be up to Ray Lewis and the defense to stop them. I guess I have to mention the blossoming Matt Cassell-Dwayne Bowe romance from this year, but I am still bitter that Bowe did not show up in the playoffs for my fantasy team. Cassell is legit and so are the Chiefs.

The Ravens offense has looked potent at times and very average at other times. If they get Ray Rice in a rhythm, the Ravens could very well be the team that has the best chance of beating New England in the AFC. However, they also have to play 3 road games in hostile environments if they plan on doing that. I think they have their hands full here. Upset special…

THE PICK: Chiefs 35, Ravens 31

Green Bay (10-6) at Philadelphia (10-6)                
Sunday 4:30PM

Michael Vick has won in the playoffs against the Packers in the past. Eagles fans (generally dirtbags) are hoping that he can recapture that success. Just kidding my Eagle fan friends (about the dirtbag thing....for some of you). 

This is – by all accounts – the best game of the weekend. The Pack is rolling with consecutive wins over the Giants and Bears. The Bears gave them a full blown effort, and the Packers pulled it out.

Sidebar – Didn’t I tell you that Jay Cutler sucks?

The Packers seem to have some momentum, while Michael Vick and the Eagles are a little banged up. I should say… Michael Vick is a little banged up. The Eagles are coming off two horse-pooh efforts against two of the NFC’s worst – Minnesota & Dallas. Will they be able to regain the moxie that fueled their comeback against the Giants?

Vick has won a big playoff game against the Packers previously, and this time he’s at home. If he is able to dominate like he has showed at times this year, the Eagles are a tough out. LeSean McCoy has opened plenty of eyes this year as a playmaker out of the backfield, and DeSean Jackson/Jeremy Maclin could score any time they touch the ball. The Pack will have their hands full in stopping Philly’s playmakers.

The Pack has functioned at times without a running game, and expect no different here. Aaron Rodgers is healthy and is playing like a quarterback who badly wants playoff success. A win on the road in Philadelphia would make the Packers as solid a pick as any to get to the Super Bowl.

In order to pull this one out, they will have to keep the ball out of Vick’s hands and control the clock. Rodgers at times shows the ability to surgically pick apart a defense, but they will need to get some kind of running game going in order to do so. If Vick, McCoy, Jackson, and Maclin are on the field long enough, it’s only a matter of time before they make plays – against any defense.

As much as it pains me…

THE PICK: Eagles 31, Packers 20

Imminent QB Carousel

The following blog originated from a friend's "I told you so" e-mail to me about Josh Freeman. He had lauded Freeman all year as a solid fantasy play, and I dogged him. The time is here to take my medicine...Freeman was solid, throwing 25 TD's with only 6 INT's. It's rare for an NFL QB to have fewer than 10 INT's these days, especially one who is in only his 2nd season.

Josh Freeman is the real deal. I sure as hell can't do that with a football.

The next question posed to me was about his draft stock for 2011 fantasy leagues. He finished as the 7th overall QB fantasy-wise. You'll get some people who are high on him, some who laud him as a sleeper, and some who will declare him a one-year-wonder. By my estimation, he’ll probably go between rounds 6-9 in most leagues. Guys like Matt Schaub, Matt Ryan, and Eli Manning will get taken ahead of him based on sustained success alone, but he could start to sneak up the ladder.

More interesting, I think, is TIM TEBOW for next year. He scores 20 points even when he throws picks….he rushes for 60-80 yards a game, sometimes with a score. He's essentially their goaline back, which boosts his value, and hurts that of Knowshown Moreno. I'm hailing Tebow as a sleeper starting QB, maybe someone to take late as a QB2 but could surprise by year’s end…

Is Denver ready for full-time Tebow Time?

There are some bold ideas kicking around here, so it got me to thinking. There are A LOT of unsettled QB situations out there to go along with the one in Denver. Solution? BLOG ABOUT IT!!!!Without further ado, here are the most burning QB issues around the league as we head into this offseason:

Will the Bills stay with Fitzpatrick?

Fitzpatrick was above average at times this year, and has earned the Pepe Vibe "You Could Do Worse" tag. I think they will, but they'll make a push to trade up to #1 to grab Andrew Luck.

So this is what Ryan Fitzpatrick looks like...

Will the Dolphins give Henne another year before pulling the plug?

They have to...Henne showed signs of life last year, but regressed big time this year. Something has to happen with this offense. They are too good to be as inept as they were at the end of 2010. Look for the Dolphins to bring in someone to compete with Henne (a la Alex Smith)

Is Colt McCoy the midseason version that led the Browns to strong performances against the Saints, Pats, and Jets, or the late season version that struggled yesterday versus the Ravens?

He's somewhere in between. I see McCoy as a potential Chad Pennington type - a good leader who doesn't have blue chip physical skils, but will be a winner at the NFL level.

Is Carson Palmer done in Cincy? Does he get cut and become the hottest free agent commodity for teams like OAK, CAR, SF, SEA?

Boy, he sure looks like he's done there. If you saw the end of the Cincy-Baltimore game, you know what I am talking about. Something tells me he will be back, but they need to find some way to give themselves a "fresh start". Consider Marvin Lewis, Benson, TO, and Ochocinco on alert.

What will the Broncos do? Do they trade Orton, or keep him around as an unhappy camper and backup who would start for a lot of teams?

One thing is certain - Brady Quinn will definitely be there as a backup. The question is, does Orton remain also, or do they jettison him to give Tebow a shot. That's my bet. Regardless of how you feel about Tebow, you don't take a first round pick and send him to the bench when he's started games for you (end of this year). Orton will be QB-ing in the NFC West next year. 

Raiders…do they give Campbell one more year before cutting their losses?

Campbell stays, but they'll draft a QB in the second/third round - perhaps a Jake Locker type. They'll have to trade up to land any of the big names, as New England has their first round pick from the Seymour trade. 

Will the Eagles shop Kevin Kolb to one of the QB-needy teams?

The only way they don't is if they are not confident in Michael Vick's ability to stay healthy. If they plan on getting anything for Kolb in a trade - now is the time. They may have a hard time finding a suitor, but Kolb lands somewhere out west (SF or AZ).

Is Rex Grossman the future (hahahahhahahaha) in Washington?

Starting to think Shanahan is just a really average NFL coach who happened to encounter John Elway and Terrell Davis at the same time. Grossman opens the season as Washington's starter, and Shanahan arrogantly defends the decision.

Right on Rex! Rex Grossman seems ready to take over in Washington.

Will Matthew Stafford ever be healthy?

No. Detroit's hands are tied. They better hope that he can. He's a rarity in that he shows the intangibles of a winning QB, but he's in danger of becoming a "bust" because he can't stay healthy. 

Vikings….what a mess…Should they start from scratch at QB?

Introducing the new starting quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings - Donovan McNabb. Why not? They are in the business of reviving aging QB careers. Vikes will be a team to watch this offseason....anything is possible.

Will the Panthers go after Andrew Luck, or continue to try their “luck” with Jimmy Clausen, perhaps bringing in a Carson Palmer/Donovan McNabb-type to help him develop?

Andrew Luck, welcome to Carolina. Tony Pike, Matt Moore, and Brian St. Pierre are out the door. Clausen stays as a QB3 (in training to be a QB2), and the Panthers sign a 2nd/3rd tier veteran to help get Luck ready to start (Alex Smith, Sage Rosenfels).

Maybe they should've been practicing their throws instead of their handoffs. A whopping 9 TD and 21 INT for the Panthers QB's this season. 2300 yards and an eye-popping QB rating of 57.0.

The NFC West will have a huge overhaul. Matt Hasselbeck, Troy/Alex Smith, Derek Anderson, and even Charlie Whitehurst could all be gone. Will we see a McNabb-Orton matchup next year when the 49ers play the Cardinals?

You can count on every NFC West team having a new QB at the start of next season (except the Rams, of course). The question is, who lands where? I think Orton's a foregone conclusion to join one of those teams, while McNabb lives in Arizona in the offseason.



I don't even think they eat Chunky Soup in Arizona!

2011 - Who will start?
Teams of Interest
Bills: Ryan Fitzpatrick (draft Blaine Gabbert #3)                                 
Dolphins: Chad Henne                                 
Bengals: Carson Palmer                                  
Browns: Colt McCoy                                                              
Jaguars: David Garrard                                 
Titans: Vince Young
Raiders: Jason Campbell
Broncos: Tim Tebow
Redskins: Rex Grossman (draft Ryan Mallett #10)
Vikings: Donovan McNabb (draft Cam Newton #12)
Panthers: Andrew Luck
Seahawks: Charlie Whitehurst
49ers: Kevin Kolb
Cardinals: Kyle Orton (draft Jake Locker in 2nd Round #37) 

It’s going to be an interesting offseason….Coaching vacancy blog is next up...