That is the question...
Not that I've had much vested interest in any Super Bowl since January of 1996, but it's particularly troubling to watch two teams I've come to despise play in the big game.....for the second time in 4 years. I can deal with a Packers-Steelers Super Bowl. I can get behind an underdog story like the 2008 Cardinals or 2009 Saints. What I can't deal with is having no dog in the fight. Not even one to be dog for a day.
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| Who can't appreciate a feel good underdog story like the 2009 Saints? Re-energizing a city ravaged by Hurricane Katrina, Brees and the Saints were easy to root for against the Colts. |
As much as the fan in me wants to hate on these two teams, there clearly needs to be credit given where credit is due. It's not easy to make it to a Super Bowl. You have to be good, and you have to be lucky. The Patriots and Giants have made their respective runs through the playoffs with a healthy combination of the two.
THE GOOD
Each team is here because they got hot as the playoffs ensued, albeit the Pats had sustained success in the regular season. These teams have had prolific quarterback play all season long, and their defenses are playing well at the right time. A Patriots defense who was among the worst statistically of all-time, yielded just 15ppg in two playoff games. Meanwhile, the Giants defense has re-emerged as a dominant pass rushing force, making the Falcons, Packers, and 49ers offenses look inept (13ppg in three playoff games).
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| Even though they've annoyingly modified Naughty's "O.P.P." for this guy, he's an absolute beast on the field. The continuity of monster pass rushers on the Giants D-line (Strahan to Osi to Kiwanuka to Tuck to JPP) is uniquely spectacular. |
THE LUCKY
Neither team is here because they "made a play" in a big spot in the championship game. Each team is here because their championship game was handed to them. Don't get me wrong, you don't get to a Super Bowl without making a play at some point in your league championship game. It's just that coming down to the wire of each game, it was a costly miscue that yielded the championship result.
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| Lee Evans was brought in to give the Ravens a viable target to replace Derrick Mason opposite Anquan Boldin. Instead, he did nothing all season, and waited until the worst possible moment to remind Ravens fans he was still on the team. |
For the Patriots, it was Ravens WR Lee Evans who didn't maintain possession of the sure-to-be game winning TD. Sure, Pats corner Sterling Moore got a piece of it once Evans had caught it. But an NFL WR makes that catch 9 times out of 10.
The saving grace for Pats fans is that the Ravens then had a chance to send it to overtime after the miscue, and botched the FG attempt.
For the Giants, it was the referees who gave them a chance to advance. Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled in the waning minutes of the game. A fumble that would have given the 49ers a certain chance at winning the game in regulation with a FG. Inexplicably, the zebras blew it dead for forward progress. Even though 99 times out of 100 they let the defense make the tackle in that spot. If that was forward progress, there should be no such thing as a "good second effort" on short yardage. It should be blown dead on the initial contact. Mini rant complete.
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| Not to be believed...this non-fumble left 50% of the 49er fans in America (data based on a controlled sample size of 2) on the ledge the morning after the game. |
The saving grace for Giants fans is that the 49ers also had a chance to seal the game out, but their rookie kick returner handed the ball back to the Giants in two key spots. The last of which set up the game-winning FG in overtime.
SUPER BOWL OUTLOOK
With the sour grapes out of the way, I think this is going to be a very competitive Super Bowl. Having listened to talk radio the last 2 weeks in NYC, the Giants fans have soured me on them even more. Many are not giving the Pats the respect they deserve, assuming that victory is a foregone conclusion. Luckily for Eli and Co., they are likely preparing for the Pats as they have for each playoff game this postseason. While their fans might be taking the Pats lightly, it's certain the actual Giants are not.
The Patriots offensively are going to exploit the Giants weak linebacking corps. Yes, they have played improved football of late. However, it is still the weak link of their defense. Expect Belichick to gameplan for that. You might think they will be hurt by the absence of a healthy Gronkowski (he'll be limited, at best), but you can be sure that Tom Brady will find other targets to pick up the slack. I can see someone like Danny Woodhead coming out of nowhere and having a big impact on the game.
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| Unheralded Jake Ballard made a number of clutch receptions in the Giants 24-20 victory over the Pats earlier this year, including the game-winning touchdown. Expect an unsung hero like Ballard or the Patriots Danny Woodhead to step up and become a household name on Sunday. |
The Giants offensively will attack the Pats secondary. Opposing QB's have blown away the Patroits all season long, and expect a quality performance from Eli Manning. They will have to find a way to control the clock too, to keep Brady and his offense on the sidelines. I'd expect Cruz and Manningham to have a big role in the possession game, with Eli taking periodic shots down the field to Nicks. A sleeper player for the Giants heading into this game is TE Jake Ballard. Eerily #85 (David Tyree?), Ballard was an important part of the Giants regular season win over the Patriots. He'll make an impact again today.
I hate myself for doing this, but....
The Pick: GIANTS 38, PATRIOTS 35
