VY - In"vince"ible?

Following the Titans embarrassing overtime loss to the Washington Redskins, there was an apparent locker room exchange in which QB Vince Young disrespected Head Coach Jeff Fisher in front of the entire team. The Titans are reeling, sitting at 5-5 in the ultra-competitive AFC South. They essentially have the opportunity to control their own destiny, playing 5 of their remaining 6 games against AFC South opponents (including the Colts twice). However, they have major issues that need to be settled.

Vince inappropriately was making comments and laughing as Fisher was addressing the team at halftime of the Redskins game, and then proceeded to walk out. When told by Fisher to not walk out on his teammates, Young replied that he was walking out on Fisher, not his teammates. In the fallout since:

• VY has been placed on injured reserve with a thumb injury.
• Jeff Fisher has stated that even if Vince had not gone on IR, he would be benched for his conduct.
• Bud Adams (owner) has stated that VY and Fisher needed to "learn to get along".....neither condemning Vince's behavior nor supporting Fisher's decision.
• Vince sent a text message to Fisher attempting an apology.
• Fisher publicly questioned the genuity of the apology, claiming that he isn't big on texting, and that face-to-face is a "man thing".

Below is a breakdown of each side in this brewing feud:

Jeff Fisher

There is no coach in the NFL more respected than Jeff Fisher. In today's NFL, it is unusual for a coach to last longer than 5 years with a team. Fisher has been there so long, he actually coached the franchise for 2 1/2 years as the Houston Oilers before they moved to Tennessee. Overall, he has coached 17 seasons, compiling a record of 141-115.

Jeff Fisher has been coaching Bud Adams team since 1994 when they were the Houston Oilers. He has rebuilt the team numerous times, around players like Steve McNair (pictured).

The knock on Fisher is that the Titans never seem to be able to get it done in the playoffs. They were within a 1/2 yard of winning a Super Bowl in 1999 (Fisher's first winning season). In Fisher's 16 years prior to this season, the team made the playoffs only 6 times. His playoff record is 5-6, and his record includes 2 seasons in which the Titans entered the playoffs at 13-3 and lost at home in the divisional round (one and done).

Bud Adams, the Titans owner, has shown both loyalty to and patience with Fisher:

• It was not until Fisher's FIFTH full season that the Titans had their first winning record under him.
• The team has undergone three separate rebuilding phases under Fisher, without once winning a Super Bowl (1994-2000....2001-2003....2004-2008). The argument could be made that they are in the midst of their fourth.

Titans owner Bud Adams sends a message to Bills fans in 2009. Will he send a similar message to Jeff Fisher?


Perhaps Bud Adams is merely growing tired of waiting for Fisher to deliver a Super Bowl and is considering going in a different direction after the season.

Vince Young

Young's stock and popularity was at an all-time high coming out of Texas. He had led the Longhorns to a thrilling Rose Bowl victory over the USC Trojans in one of the greatest college football games ever played. He was rumored to be in the mix to be drafted #1 overall by his hometown Texans, before being taken third by the Titans.

In one of the greatest college football games ever played, Vince Young led the Longhorns to the 2006 Rose Bowl and the national championship. He was subsequently drafted #3 overall in the 2006 draft by the Titans.

He burst onto the NFL scene in his rookie season, taking over as the Titans starter and guiding the team to a win in 6 of their last 7 games. He was selected to the Pro Bowl as he threw for 2,200 yards and ran for 550.

The following season, he led the Titans to a 10-6 record and a berth in the AFC playoffs. Although unspectacular statistically (9 TD, 17INT), VY showed leadership ability and led the team to 3 straight wins to close the regular season and make the playoffs. His reward, a place on the cover of Madden 2008.



Vince graced the cover of Madden '08. Is the Madden curse alive and well?

 Since that time, Vince's career has taken a sharp nosedive. In 2008, he was replaced due to injury in the season's first game, and Kerry Collins stepped in and took over the team. Collins remained the starter after Young became healthy, and Young went through a series of off-the-field personal problems (suicide, weapon allegations, etc.). He watched as Collins led the Titans to a 13-3 record and a Pro Bowl selection. The Titans were now Kerry Collins' team.

Going into 2009, Collins was the unquestioned starter, but Fisher publicly asserted that he believed in Vince Young. Collins stumbled as the starter, as the Titans opened up with an 0-6 start. Fisher turned to Vince, and he led the team to an 8-2 record over the final 10 games. Vince had reclaimed the Titans as his team going into 2010. As described in the introduction, the 2010 season has been up and down for both the team and for Vince.

The Titans have a lot of money invested in Vince, and seem as though they would like to see the VY era through to its (some would say "bitter") end.

Pep's Vibe

It's impossible to defend Vince Young's conduct in the locker room. Anyone who has played on a team with a coach like Fisher understands how out of line VY was in his behavior. Fisher has been able to sustain an unusual balance as a head coach. He expects and demands the best from his players (and they do not see the field if it doesn't happen), and at the same time, he is a player's coach. His team loves him. The fans love him.

Some players just are not used to being told that they aren't doing the right things, or that they need to adjust what they are doing. Some players just want to do their own thing. Some players can only handle being told positive things when all is well, but not "hearing it like it is" when things are not going so well. This is Vince Young.



Is Vince heading down the path of former NFL Draft "busts" Akili Smith (pictured on top) and Ryan Leaf (pictured on bottom)? He cannot return to Tennessee and be successful. As it stands now, he has been villified by the fans for this incident. Imagine what it will be like next year if he runs out onto the field as the guy who forced Jeff Fisher out. Multiply the disdain for him by 50. If Bud Adams fires Jeff Fisher, he will be putting Vince in an even more impossible situation. And Fisher will be unemployed for about 5 minutes.

There are two possible solutions for the Titans that would enable them to avoid looking ridiculous:
1) Cut Vince Young after the season, and retain Fisher.
2) Vince apologizes to Fisher man-to-man, addresses the team and apologizes to the team, addresses the fans and apologizes to the fans, and takes full responsibility for his actions.

Scenario #2 is the only way in which Fisher and Young can co-exist in Tennessee. Sorry for my pessimism, but I'll believe that when I see it. I'll gladly blog about being incorrect if it does happen.

I'm betting that Bud Adams feels a different vibe and Fisher will be out in Tennessee.

Jilted by Jeter?



The Yankees have won 5 world championships since Derek Jeter became their everyday SS in 1996. Since the beginning of the Steinbrenner era in 1973, the Yankees have committed to putting the best product on the field for their fans – nearly to the tune of a “win at all costs” approach.

After the 2000 season, the Yankees rewarded their 26 year-old shortstop with a 10-year, $189million contract. Jeter had come off three of his best seasons as a professional:

1998 – .324 average, 19 HR, 84 RBI, 127 Runs, 203 Hits, 30 SB

1999 – .349 average, 24 HR, 102 RBI, 134 Runs, 219 Hits, 19 SB

2000 – .339 average, 15 HR, 73 RBI, 119 Runs, 201 Hits, 22 SB

On top of that, he was the unquestioned leader on a team that had won 4 world championships in 5 years. He was a career .300+ hitter over the course of his 5 postseason appearances, and had come up with big clutch hits time and time again. At the time, going into the 2001 season, Jeter’s contract was the richest deal ever signed by a Major League Baseball player.

The YANKEES Camp

The Yankees have made Derek Jeter a very rich man. At the time Jeter was a free agent, they signed him to a contract well above market value in order to ensure that he would be a career Yankee, and that they rewarded him for his contributions to the 4 (at the time) world championships.

Derek Jeter has made over $20 million per year over the last 5 years. Since the 1999 season, he has not hit higher than .349, or more than 24 HR, or driven in more than 102 runs, or scored more than 134 runs, or had more than 219 hits.

While remaining a very productive player, a perennial all-star, and someone who has etched an iconic chapter in Yankee history, he has been overpaid based on his statistics alone. He has been the highest paid shortstop in baseball since 2004, but has not been considered by the majority to be the best statistical SS in baseball during that time. He has driven in over 80 runs only once since signing the contract.

There is criticism about his range in the field, and he has come under scrutiny for grounding into double plays.



"Uggh Jeter....Good luck getting your 3,000th hit with the Pirates!!"
Some fans became frustrated this year with Jeter's GIDP numbers.



The Yankees feel a responsibility to their fans to put the best product on the field. While they recognize the high esteem with which many fans hold Derek Jeter (evidenced by their 3-yrs/$45million offer), they cannot afford to hamstring themselves from signing future free agents to compensate a 37-40 year old shortstop. 

The JETER Camp

While Derek Jeter has been rewarded handsomely by the Yankees over his time in pinstripes, he has played the role of “good soldier” as much as a $200 million man can. He has batted all over the lineup for the good of the team. Despite the fact that he plays like a natural #2 hitter, he spent many years batting leadoff because the Yanks lacked a true leadoff man. The argument could be made that this cut into his RBI numbers. As previously mentioned, he has topped 80 RBI only once since 2000.

He has watched as the Yankees signed high priced free agents, with no postseason track record, to salaries above what he was making – even as he made $20 million a year. Alex Rodriguez, C.C. Sabathia, Jason Giambi of recent. Chuck Knoblauch, Orlando Hernandez before he had signed this contract.



Did Chuck Knoblauch deserve more respect as a free agent than Derek Jeter?

He watched Alex Rodriguez dis’ the Yankees by opting out of his contract, only to have the Yankees swoop back in (while nobody else was going after A-Rod) and give him 10 years/$275 million. Alex will make $31 million in 2011.

It is not even a question that Jeter has been more vital to the Yankees success over the last 15 years than Alex Rodriguez, or any other player (even Mariano Rivera).  So, while he has been the most vital cog, others have been getting paid more.

PEP’S VIBE

I can’t get on board with anyone who’s going to kill Jeter’s play on the field. The guy produces, and has produced. Despite hitting .270 this year with only 10 HR, he still scored 111 runs – batting leadoff the whole year. He had a .340 on-base percentage, stole 18 bases, and made only 6 errors in 553 chances.

His last two statistical years at SS have been the best of his career. The en vogue criticisms of his defense are that he does not get to as many balls as other shortstops and that he can’t get to balls to his left. You’re still a pretty damn good shortstop if you play in 150+ games and make under 10 errors.



Jeter patented the jump throw from the hole, but people are quick to kill his defense.

He is the most iconic New York Yankee in the 37-year history of the Steinbrenner era, and is clearly in the discussion with Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, and Yogi Berra as among the greatest Yankees of all time. Jeter is at a level above the Reggie Jacksons, Bill Dickeys, Ellie Howards, Phil Rizzutos, etc. of the Yankee retired numbers.

Billy struggled writing "Rizzuto". I wonder what would happen if he tried to write "Jeter" (cursive J's are hard!)

I originally scratched my head as to why Jeter would make waves at a deal that would pay him $15million a year. But I’ve started to change my mind.

The exchange between Jeter’s agent and the Yankees is disappointing:

·         Yankees offer what many thought was a fair deal.

·         Jeter’s agent publicly calls the deal “baffling”

·         Brian Cashman urges Jeter publicly to “test the market”

·         Hank Steinbrenner says:

"As much as we want to keep everybody, we've already made these guys very, very rich, and I don't feel we owe anybody anything monetarily," the Yankees co-chairman said Tuesday. "Some of these players are wealthier than their bosses."

Hank Steinbrenner was quick to throw money at A-Rod. Will Jeter get the same treatment?

This is what kills me about the situation. Keep it behind closed doors! It does not benefit the Yankees to throw mud on Derek Jeter and paint him as greedy (even if they feel that way). It does not benefit Derek Jeter to publicly come across as greedy. This should all be discussed behind closed doors, especially because of the long history they have together. Both sides want to get the deal done, and Jeter is not talking with any other teams. Just be patient and talk behind closed doors.

As for the deal itself, I’ve changed my stance. I think they need to pay him more. In writing this blog, I reacquainted myself with some of the “off-the-field” financial escapades of the New York Yankees over the last 15 years.

The Yankees severely underpaid Jeter for quite a few years before signing this deal. They almost brought him back at the league minimum again in 1997 after he won the AL Rookie of the Year and a World Series. He made $750,000 in 1998 while putting up the numbers shown above, and finishing 3^rd in AL MVP voting. Pretty good bargain if you ask me.

Meanwhile, the Yankees have wined and dined free agents over the years and shown them more financial respect than they are showing Jeter. Jason Giambi made $23.5 million each of his last 2 years in pinstripes. JASON GIAMBI!!!

We all liked the mustache. But there was little else to like about Jason Giambi's time in New York.

I don’t think $20 million a year would be too steep, or maybe concede the 4^th year and pay him less per.

GET IT DONE!

Best in the AFC

AFC seasons past have been characterized by dominant teams. The Tom Brady-led Patriots. The Peyton Manning Colts. The smashmouth Steelers. Along with these perennial winners, other teams have cycled in showing some dominating seasons over the course of the last ten years (Ravens, Chargers, Titans to name a few). It seems as though each of the past few years, we have watched as an AFC team flirts with perfection. This year however, no AFC teams have emerged from the pack as dominating.

Even though the Jets & Patriots sit atop the pack at 8-2, each has not given fans a reason to proclaim them the favorite. The Steelers, Ravens, and Colts have flirted at times with being the top AFC dog, but have also sputtered in other spots. Other teams with roles worth mentioning are the overachievers (Chiefs & Raiders), the red hots (Jaguars), the underachievers (Chargers & Titans).

The parity in the AFC this year is unlike any year we have seen in recent memory. If the Chargers pull off a win tonight – as predicted by the pre-game “vibe” of this blogger, the AFC would have an incomparable 11 teams with a .500 or better record. You read that right. ELEVEN out of SIXTEEN. 

This blog will focus on the teams that appear to be the cream of the crop at this time. A discussion of the “others” will be included, as many of them must be considered factors in the race. Comments are always welcome!

One of these guys will lead the Pats to the AFC East title. Both have awful hair.

 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (8-2)

What to like…

OK. I had to join the Brady-Bieber humor bandwagon (see pic). Insert Justin Bieber hair joke.

Would anyone who has an accurate read on this year’s Patriots please stand up? OK….sit down, you friggin' liars! We have watched this year as the Patriots dropped the early season “Best in the AFC” showdown to the Jets (who had dropped their own “Best in the AFC” showdown to Baltimore the week before). The Pats then went on a tear, ripping off 5 wins in a row, looking like champs. Consecutive signature wins over the aforementioned Ravens, the Chargers, and the Vikings (Randy Moss’s Vikings….err Brett Favre’s Vikings….err Brad Childress’s Vikings?). And then came the Browns game. The lowly Browns, with rookie Colt McCoy, unheralded Peyton Hillis, and no other offensive skill players worth mentioning (I can’t mention Ben Watson as a legitimate skill player and keep a straight face). They have since rebounded by shellacking the Pittsburgh Steelers and winning a marquee showdown with the Colts.

With their schedule to date, they are easily the most battle-tested team in the AFC, with quite inarguably the most battle-tested quarterback and most battle-tested head coach in recent memory. Tom Brady has a way of elevating the play of those around him. If they keep rolling, in a few weeks we will look back at this blog and scratch our heads at how PepeVibe did not designate them as the unquestioned cream of the crop.

What not to like…

Where is this magical bowl of pixie dust that Bill Belichik has? The Pats constantly add “no name” players to their mix, only to see them blossom into legitimate factors on their team. You could make the argument that aside from Tom Brady, all of their offensive “weapons” are Belichik creations – Wes Welker, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, Julian Edelman. Welker is established, but are we really to believe that a Super Bowl Champion team will be led by a rushing attack of BJGE and Woodhead? It’s tough to ignore the success they have had so far. The Patriots are statistically the NFL’s highest scoring team. That said, they hold an unusual distinction of going this whole season so far with never once having a game’s leading receiver. When it’s time to step up and make plays in the passing game, will they have someone to answer the bell?

If there is one notable point of concern for this team, it is the team’s defense and special teams. Their defense ranks in the bottom half of the league in almost every defensive category. While they have some playmakers (Mayo, Merriweather & McCourty), they also have difficulty stopping the pass and have been susceptible to the big play. If anyone is going to beat the Pats, it will be via a solid air attack. The loss of Stephen Gostkowski hurts. He was not having his most consistent year, but had been more solid in the games leading up to his season-ending injury. Shayne Graham has traditionally been accurate, but is not going to help in the field position game with his kickoffs.

Predicted Record: 13-3 (1^st in AFC East…#1 seed in the AFC)

The Sanchize is starting to play with some serious chutzpah.

NEW YORK JETS (8-2)

What to like…

Rex Ryan. I’m on board with his style. If you’re not, it doesn’t matter because his players are. When the players buy in to the coach’s style and system, usually good things happen. Confidence and swagger is infectious, and the Jets are evidence of that in 2010.

The game is on the line in the fourth quarter. Your team needs to march down and score. Name your top 5 quarterbacks you would want leading your team. If Mark Sanchez isn’t on your list, you haven’t been paying attention this year. Sanchez has that intangible way of showing his team “I got this” in a big spot. His pocket presence has improved, and he makes quality decisions more often than not. His improvement this year can be evidenced by comparing his stat line with his line after 10 games in 2009.

2009: 1,791 yards, 10 TD, 16 INT

2010: 2,306 yards, 15 TD, 7 INT

LaDainian Tomlinson was jettisoned from San Diego as slower, injury prone, ineffective, and washed up. He averaged 3.8 and 3.3 yards per carry, respectively, in his final two seasons in San Diego. The Jets took a flyer on him to add a veteran presence and to compliment “lead back” Shonn Greene. After 10 games, it’s Greene who is doing the complimenting. LT has averaged a robust 4.5 yards per carry in racking up nearly 700 rushing yards. Moreover, he has rediscovered his passing game prowess, leading the team in receptions with 43. If the Jets are going to win the AFC, they will need LT to remain healthy and their defense to step up.

As a final note, if Santonio Holmes continues at his current pace (and stays away from Mary Jane), he could be one of the great offseason acquisitions in recent memory – traded to the Jets for a 5^th round pick. Wow.

What not to like…

There is an enormous bulls-eye on their back. Everyone likes to think that professional athletes don’t ever need “extra” motivation to get amped up for a game. I’m not buying it. The “Hard Knocks” fallout is ongoing, and teams will be gunning for them the rest of the year to get a chance to shut Rex up.

In their remaining games, Braylon Edwards will drop at least one pass in a big spot that costs the Jets a game. Jets fans just have to hope it’s not in the playoffs.

  Their defense was dubbed “All-World” prior to this season, but has been remarkably ordinary. OK, so they’ve been above average and have even turned in an occasional dominating performance. But there are holes. They are there. If you want proof, see last week’s game when their defense collapsed in the 4^th quarter before getting bailed out by the offense.

Predicted Record: 11-5 (2^nd in AFC East…#5 seed in the AFC)

Explosive Rutgers product Ray Rice could be the key to the Ravens playoff run.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (7-3)

What to like…

Joe Flacco has really come into his own at quarterback for the Ravens. He’s making smart decisions, putting up numbers, and earning “W’s”. He’s got a few new toys to play with in Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Todd Heap has experienced a renaissance.

Ray Rice is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. Even though he’s been slightly inconsistent this year, he still has a legitimate chance to approach last year’s production if he stays healthy and gets hot.

The Ravens traditionally have a good defense, and having Ed Reed healthy helps. He created an INT-to-lateral-to TD in last week’s game in Carolina. Vintage Ed Reed. Although not as dominant as some of their defenses of previous years, they are above average in a league with no “great” defenses.

Lastly, John Harbaugh can flat out coach. It’s rare that a guy replaces a Super Bowl winning coach (Brian Billick) and actually elevates the play of the team. The Ravens were in danger of fading back into the “Cleveland Browns Land of Mediocrity” before hiring Harbaugh as their head coach.

What not to like…

While young on offense (Flacco & Rice), the Ravens are getting older on defense. Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs provide some young playmaking ability, but it’s only a matter of time before Ray Lewis and Ed Reed succumb to old guy syndrome (losing a few steps). At this point, the Ravens are glad to just have Reed on the field.

Have had one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL this year, and it will wear this team down by the end of the year.  

Predicted Record: 10-6 (2^nd in AFC North…#6 seed in the AFC)

Who has 2 super bowl rings? This guy!

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-3)

What to like…

Ben Roethlisberger has never played this well in his career. Ever. He has found a consistent big play guy in Mike Wallace, while Rashard Mendenhall has proven that he can stay healthy. The Steelers have proven that they can put points up and move the ball through the passing game, but can also control the clock through the running game.

Mike Tomlin has a more reserved swagger than the aforementioned Rex Ryan, but has a swagger nonetheless. He exudes a sense of expectations for excellence and attention to detail. His players love playing for him and he demands their very best.

Their 3 losses are to high quality teams (BAL, NO, NE), and they have a quality win over Atlanta while beating the teams they are supposed to beat.

What not to like…

Ben Roethlisberger. Just can’t get past the details of the club sexual assault story. Truly one of the guys I will never root for again.

Now on to their team. Their defense has been above average-to-outstanding for most of the year, but has had their hiccups. The Patriots hung 39 on them on primetime in Week 10. You have to ask yourself if Tom Brady & Company have the antidote to slow down the Steelers D. The Pats are one of the only teams this year that have been able to run the ball on Pittsburgh…and they are not a running team.

Depth is a question in some spots. Hines Ward is aging and has been banged up. Can you name another WR on their team besides Mike Wallace? What’s that, Antwaan Randle-El you say? Let me remind you that it’s not 2003 anymore. By doing this blog, I just found out that Arnaz Battle is on their roster. How ‘bout that? If Rashard Mendenhall gets hurt, they are screwed.

Predicted Record: 11-5 (1^st in AFC North…#2 seed in the AFC)

"Pocket Hercules" is feelin' the MoJo right now.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (6-4)

What to like…

Slice it any way you want. MJD is just money. He’s been inconsistent at times this year, but “Pocket Hercules” is one of the few players in the NFL capable of dominating a game.

The Jags are on a 3-game winning streak and have shown how dangerous they can be with an effective passing game. This has been one of the great turnaround stories of this NFL season. The Jags QB situation was so bad that they started “Trentative” Edwards in one game and HS quarterbacks coach Todd Bouman in another. Since Garrard has returned healthy, their offense has exploded. Garrard is staking claim to the job beyond this year, and has turned Marcedes Lewis into a Pro Bowl-caliber tight end.

The Jags have their mojo working right now, and are one “signature” win away from being in the discussion of contenders. A win over the Giants this week could serve that purpose.

What not to like…

David Garrard, as well as he has played, will always be a question mark. Rarely do 32 year-old quarterbacks who have been historically mediocre undergo a renaissance that lasts more than a few games. Garrard will be looking to do just that. I just think it’s pie in the sky to expect him to keep rolling, and Jags fans know that. Right now they have to feel like they are waiting for the carriage to turn back into a pumpkin.

Although they have had some good games, I do not have a lot of confidence in their defense to come up with big plays when the game or season is on the line.

Their fan base is just – well, awful. They can’t sell tickets and appear to be on their way out of Jacksonville. A team like them needs to generate and rely on momentum, and a rabid fan base helps in that regard. They do not have such a fan base.   

IF they get by the G-men this week, they could extend their streak to 6 with some cushy matchups going into a Week 15 showdown with the Colts. Make no bones about it. The AFC South Title goes through Indianapolis.

Predicted Record: 9-7 (2^nd in AFC South…miss playoffs)

Hank Baskett wonders: "How come Peyton couldn't turn me into a star?"

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (6-4)

What to like…

Peyton Manning is on their team. See the capsule on the New England Patriots and the discussion about how Tom Brady makes everyone around him better. Replace Welker, Green-Ellis, Edelman and Woodhead with Collie, Garcon, Tamme, and Blair White. The same observation applies. I feel like if things could’ve broken a different way for “bust” 1^st round-pick wide receivers like Troy Williamson, Freddie Mitchell, or Reggie Williams, they could’ve been household names. If I were a marginal free agent wide receiver, I’d give my right arm to play for the Colts. But I guess I wouldn’t be much of a receiver, what with one arm and all. (….I’d still be better than Freddie Mitchell). The only receiver immune to the Peyton Manning effect that I can think of is Hank Baskett. But hey, it’s hard to hate on a man who’s married to Kendra.

The Colts can’t run the ball or play any defense (see below), but are always in the game because of their All-Pro quarterback.

What not to like…

Is Jim Caldwell a good coach? I don’t think anyone knows. The best I can give you is that he hasn’t managed to screw much up or get in Peyton Manning’s way since arriving in town. He had a 14-2 season in his first year, and has managed a 6-4 mark this year while battling key injuries. Will he thrive in a big spot, or will he be exposed as just the shepherd tending to Peyton Manning’s herd?

Joseph Addai being out really hurts. Mike Hart did a nice job filling in, but now he’s hurt. Donald Brown pretty much looks like a first round bust, and runs with no zip or authority. Javarris James is a short yardage back who warrants no more than 5 touches per game. They may need to utilize the short passing game to circumvent the need for a running game.

On a good day (with the scouts watching), I feel like I could rush for 100 yards against the Colts. Arian Foster will be sending them a Christmas card this year. Jacksonville poses a serious threat to them if they continue their hot streak. If MJD runs wild (and they are able to keep the ball out of Peyton’s hands), the Jags could give the Colts fits. With Foster, MJD, and CJ2K in their division, it’s a miracle the Colts are able to consistently win the AFC South. Maybe this is the year they don’t. The Jags are in first as of this blog.

Predicted Record: 10-6 (1^st in AFC South…#3 seed AFC playoffs)

The Chiefs aren't going anywhere with Matt Cassel at QB.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (6-4)

What to like…

There really isn’t much I like about the Chiefs. They are winning the games they are supposed to win. They can run the ball pretty well, and Dwayne Bowe is the hottest receiver in the NFL right now.

I think on the whole Todd Haley is a good coach, and he has assembled a nice staff. I’m just not convinced that they are a playoff team right now. Maybe they can get hot, win some games, and prove me wrong. Maybe they are catching my blog at a bad time (demoralized by the Broncos 2 weeks ago….beat the Cardinals last week). If you don’t catch my drift, the Cardinals suck, and a win over them does not impress me.

That said, they have a very favorable schedule down the stretch with 3 winnable home games and road games in Seattle, St. Louis, and San Diego. They will have to hold off a hard-charging (no pun intended) Chargers team.

What not to like…

Matt Cassel’s just not going to get it done. The best thing he has going for him is that he is not Brodie Croyle.  The Chiefs have often run gadget plays as their “go to” plays in running their offense this year, and a major reason why is that Cassel is incapable of making them an offensive threat. I often think they should line up Jamaal Charles at QB and run their offense with him and Jones in the backfield. But then I guess they’d have to get it to Dwayne Bowe somehow.

Prediction: 9-7 (2^nd in AFC West….miss playoffs)

“THE REST”

Will Ronnie Brown continue to annoy Dolphins fans the way Roni Deutch annoys the human race?

MIAMI DOLPHINS (5-5)

The Dolphins have showed signs of life this year, but unfortunately it’s not the right kind of life. Chad Henne has been dreadful after a promising 2009. Now that he is banged up, the Dolphins may have to turn to Tyler Thigpen at quarterback. That’s not something any team wants written about them. Ronnie Brown runs the ball like Roni Deutch (bah-zing!) and they do not get Ricky involved enough. I love Tony Sparano, but the Dolphins will be on the outside looking in this year. Prediction: 8-8 (3^rd in AFC East…miss playoffs)



Are the Raiders cursed by "un-slighty righty" draft bust JaMarcus Russell?

OAKLAND RAIDERS (5-5)

The Raiders have some good wins, but they lost to the San Francisco Deep6ers this year. In case you don’t understand the humor, Wikipedia says that the expression “Deep Six” means:

“A nautical expression indicating a water depth of 6 fathoms (36 feet) as measured by a sounding line; "deep six" acquired its idiomatic definition from the fact that something thrown overboard at or greater than this depth would be difficult if not impossible to recover.”

Translation, the 49ers suck and any team that loses to them is not going to the playoffs. Prediction: 7-9 (3^rd in AFC West….miss playoffs)

In Rusty they trust...

TENESSEE TITANS (5-5)

The Titans have had games in which they’ve looked like they were among the cream of the crop…and they’ve had games in which they’ve looked like they were the cream of mushroom (no charge for these zingers guys).

Vince Young is a disaster and will soon etch his name in the annals (or is it anals?) of history next to names such as JaMarcus Russell, Akili Smith, Ryan Leaf, and Tim Couch. Even Randy Moss knows that you don’t disrespect Jeff Fisher like he did. He will turn up someday as a quarterbacks coach at West Texas State University or something.

With VY now out for the year and Kerry Collins in bad shape. The Titans are prepared to turn to Rusty Smith at QB. Yeah, that’s really his name. Sounds like the punchline to a bad joke (Rusty “Trombone” Smith) or like he should be quarterbacking a team in a made-for-TV football movie.

The Titans have lost 3 in a row and face a tough schedule down the stretch. Rusty or no Rusty. Prediction: 8-8 (3^rd in AFC South…miss playoffs)

Damn. I can't stand this guy. But damn, is he good. Who the hell makes a face like this?

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-5)

Boy, do I loathe Phillip Rivers. His arrogance without substance (The Chargers have rarely won in a big spot), is rivaled only by the Bears’ Jay Cutler. The difference is that Phillip Rivers is actually good. Really good.

I’m including the Chargers in this blog in anticipation of them winning tonight’s MNF game against Denver. The Chargers are starting to peak. At the same time, the AFC West early season overachievers (Chiefs, Raiders) are starting to come back down to Earth. The Chargers lack a dominant, clock controlling rushing attack, but Rivers is going to finish with Dan Marino numbers. The Chargers have a nice schedule, and I predict they will make a run and sneak into the playoffs. Prediction: 10-6 (1^st in AFC West…#4 seed in AFC)

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PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS (as of Week 11):

Wild Card Round

#5 Jets over #4 Chargers

#3 Colts over #6 Ravens

Divisional Round

#1 Patriots over #5 Jets

#2 Steelers over #3 Colts

AFC Championship

#1 Patriots over #2 Steelers

SUPER BOWL XLV

New England Patriots over Atlanta Falcons

Best in the NFC

From 2000-2007, the AFC proved to be the more dominant of the two NFL conferences year in, and year out. During that time period, an AFC team won the Super Bowl every single year. Since that time, the AFC has sustained the public perception of being the more dominant conference, boasting the New England Bradys, the Indianapolis Peytons, the Baltimore Ray Rays, and the Pittsburgh Polamalus.

However, the NFC’s elite teams have held their own over the past 3 seasons, and have captured 2 of the past 3 Super Bowls (within a Santonio Holmes toe-drag of capturing all three). While the depth of the AFC is what many people cite when proclaiming it the better conference, the elite in the NFC have proven that they have what it takes to contend for Super Bowl titles.

This season, more so than usual, has produced extreme parity. Currently, there are 7 NFC teams with a record of 6-3 or better. With the NFC West occupying an unfortunate automatic playoff spot (hard to believe one of those teams will host a Wild Card game), the rest of the field will be battling for 5 berths in the postseason.

Two of these teams have a Super Bowl Champion QB, three of them have veteran QB’s who light up the stat sheet, but have never been to the Promised Land, and the other has a young QB who is polished and plays well in big spots.

 Without further ado, here is a breakdown of these NFC elite:

ATLANTA FALCONS (7-2)

What to like…

The Falcons have turned into quite the offensive threat with Matt Ryan showing the leadership it takes to go deep into the playoffs. Roddy White has emerged as a Top 3 wide receiver in the NFL. Tony Gonzalez has continued to be a threat in the passing game, while also providing the team with playoff-experienced leadership on the offensive side of the ball.  Yeah, the Chiefs used to go to the playoffs every year, remember? The Falcons make plays when it counts, and own 2 “signature” wins this year (Ravens, Saints). The defense is tough against the run, and though unspectacular, is solid overall.

They have a relatively easy schedule down the stretch, playing Carolina twice and the NFC West twice.

What not to like…   

The Falcons have not had success in the state of Pennsylvania this year (losses to both Pittsburgh and Philadelphia), and what’s more telling is that both losses were outdoors to playoff-caliber teams.  Securing home-field advantage throughout the playoffs would be HUGE for this team, as they have yet to prove they are capable of winning big games outdoors. They have two major tests (GB, NO) on their slate down the stretch, but both of them come at home.

Predicted Record: 12-4 (1^st in NFC South…#1 seed in the NFC)

CHICAGO BEARS (6-3)

What to like…

The Bears defense has been stellar this season, although not at a level that they had been a few years ago.  Their QB has a big arm and is operating in a Mike Martz system that seemingly suits him (throw it downfield, don’t worry about turnovers). If things click with Cutler, the Bears could be a dangerous team that could score at any moment (especially if they get Devin Hester going).

What not to like…   

The Bears are running the Mike Martz “Greatest Show on Turf” offense without the “Greatest Show on Turf” players. Kurt Warner maintained a respectable 2:1 TD to INT ratio in his heyday under Martz. I’ve only seen Jay Cutler have that kind of season once ever – when I simulated a season in “Franchise Mode” on Madden 2007 and had traded Randy Moss from the Raiders to the Broncos for a future 1^st round draft pick. Their running game is on life support. Chicago has become the home base for “tease fans-then-flop” running backs (Curtis Enis, Anthony Thomas, Cedric Benson).

They have the best kick returner in the history of the NFL, and they take him off the kick return team so they can get him more involved on offense. Then, they don’t get him more involved on offense. And – oh by the way, still don’t have him return kicks regularly. I also question the decision-making ability of the Lovie Smith/Mike Martz/Jay Cutler triumvirate when the game is on the line.

The Bears are looking at a tough remaining schedule (at MIN & GB, home to PHI, NWE, and NYJ)

Predicted Record: 8-8 (tied for 3^rd in NFC North…miss playoffs)

GREEN BAY PACKERS (6-3)

What to like…

The Packers passing attack under Aaron Rodgers has been one of the most potent in the NFL. Rodgers also clearly possesses the intangible leadership qualities that make a winner. The Packers have proven that they can move the ball and score at a very high rate.  They possess one of the most consistent kickers in the NFL in Mason Crosby.

Their defense was highly touted coming into the season, but it took a little while for things to click. Recently, they have been flying around the field and harder to score on than Lindsay Lohan on a night out (hey-oh!). They have allowed fewer than 10 points in 3 games this season, and have allowed more than 25 points only once. Clay Mathews is making a run at Defensive Player of the Year, and Charles Woodson keeps the secondary formidable.

The Packers have one of the most dynamic home field advantages in the league. The open air, natural grass Lambeau truly becomes a “frozen tundra” come playoff time. This is not an environment that many teams in the NFC are used to.

What not to like…   

Rodgers has not yet proven that he can perform well in a big spot.  There is no team in the NFL that has been as decimated by injuries as the Packers have. They have not consistently run the ball against a good team all year without Ryan Grant, and have still not replaced Jermichael Finley in the passing game (Although James Jones has taken on a bigger role). It’s questionable whether Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn can fill in for Grant at a high level, and if the loss of Finley in the vertical passing game will be overcome with the emergence of Jones.

While Lambeau Field boasts playoff aura and mystique, it is not as taboo as it once was to think that the Packers could lose there.

Predicted Record: 10-6 (1^st in NFC North….#3 seed in the NFC)

 

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (6-3)

What to like…

They are the defending Super Bowl Champions.

They’ve been down this road before. They have the best quarterback in the NFC, and he has a Super Bowl Championship ring under his belt (err…I guess it’s probably on his finger). Drew Brees is capable of putting the team on his back, and Sean Payton is a confident head coach who has the tools to keep the team in a proper state of mind as they try to repeat.

Their passing attack has been above average this year (although not as prolific as in previous years). They are able to move the ball down the field as well as any team in the NFC, and have an assortment of deep threats (Robert Meacham, Devery Henderson) and red zone weapons (Jeremy Shockey, Marques Colston, Lance Moore).

They have one of the most well-respected defensive coordinators in Gregg Williams who has kept the Saints defense playing semi-well.

They could be getting two-headed rushing monster Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush back at just the right time.

What not to like…   

They are the defending Super Bowl Champions.

They’ve been down this road before, and the “Super Bowl hangover” is a scientifically proven phenomenon, with a few exceptions.

Their woes in the running game cannot be ignored. Reggie Bush is due back soon, but may take a few weeks to get back to full speed. There is no guarantee that Pierre Thomas comes back this season. And if he does, how productive will he be? Is a backfield that consists of Chris Ivory, Julius Jones, and Ladell Betts capable of producing for a Super Bowl winning team? If the Saints pull it out, they could end up being the Super Bowl winner that has the lowest yardage for a leading rusher ever.

Their defense has also taken a step back and while still solid, has not been able to create turnover opportunities like they had been last year.

Can they win outdoors on the road in the playoffs?

Predicted Record: 11-5 (2^nd in NFC South…..#5 seed in the NFC)

NEW YORK GIANTS (6-3)

What to like…

They have a Super Bowl champion quarterback who appears to have come into his own this season. If Eli Manning’s receivers had more consistent hands, you could wipe 5-7 interceptions off his stat line for the year. Eli is playing like an All-Pro, and the Giants offense has performed at a very high level all year long.

Their rushing attack has been a revelation. Questions about Brandon Jacobs’ ability to handle the feature back role have allowed Ahmad Bradshaw to seize the starting role, emerging as one of the most elusive running backs in the NFC. Bradshaw’s ability to stop and cut on a dime causes football fans everywhere to cringe and reach for their ACL. Jacobs has shaken off some early season disdain to turn into a force as a bruising, change-of-pace back.

Hakeem Nicks has blossomed into one of the NFL’s best playmakers in the passing game, and has shown the ability to make big plays on a consistent basis. Eli’s ability to involve auxiliary parts (Manningham, Boss, Bradshaw on screens) in the passing game has contributed to the success of the offense.

The Giants defense has looked at times like the best defense in the NFL. They absolutely abused Charlie Whitehurst in Seattle, and Jay Cutler is still tossing and turning at night seeing Big Blue monsters charging at him. Their secondary has shown the ability to create turnovers, and they have no shortage of athletes on the defensive side of the ball.

The Giants have leadership in the right places coupled with young, explosive talent that is hungry to win.

What not to like…   

They are the capable of coming out and laying a dud at any time, without warning. Last week many experts hailed the Giants as the “best in the NFC” after they thumped the Seattle Seahawks with an offensive fireworks display. This week, the right mix of injuries, penalties, mistakes, and a rejuvenated Dallas Cowboys team resulted in a Giants loss.

As much as their passing game has been stellar this year, it is crazy to think where they might be had their receivers learned how to catch the ball properly. Not only do the Giants receiving corps drop passes, but they drop them in a way that has often created interceptions for the opposing defense. Even the usually sure-handed Steve Smith had difficulty being consistent this year. A costly WR drop at the wrong time could spell doom for Big Blue.

The Giants have MAJOR injury issues. Their offensive line is decimated without Shaun “Scarlet (Knight)” O’Hara, David Diehl, and Will Beatty. While fill-ins have performed respectably at times, the absence of these de facto leaders could hurt the Giants in the playoffs. Pro Bowler Steve Smith could be lost for up to 8 weeks, and Ramses Barden just broke his ankle. The fallout? Derek Hagan has a job again. The bad news: Derek Hagan is no David Tyree (the best 5^th string WR in Giants history). Kevin Boss is also banged up, depleting the passing game even further.

Predicted Record: 11-5 (1^st in NFC East….#2 seed in the NFC)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (6-3)

What to like…

They turned in quite possibly the single most explosive offensive performance of the season last week at Washington.  They have arguably (but not really arguably…they pretty much are) the best duo of playmakers in the league in Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson.

Andy Reid’s west coast game plan has helped Vick in making smarter, high percentage decisions both inside and out of the pocket. Vick’s pocket awareness is unlike anything he showed in Atlanta. He has a very legitimate chance to enter the NFL MVP discussion, despite having missed 3 games.

DeSean, although a serious Ryobi (that’s a tool….get it?), runs deep routes better than anyone in the league, and is a threat to score a touchdown every single time he touches the ball. Maclin and he are a scary task for any defensive secondary, especially if you have to sacrifice someone in coverage to shadow Michael Vick.

What not to like…   

How many characters am I allowed to type? They are the Eagles. There is A LOT not to like. They lack an on the field leader with significant playoff experience. Michael Vick getting injured would make them into a completely different team (and a less explosive one). Why mention that? Vick’s style of play lends itself to injury at some point. As team’s begin to see more and more film on Vick, someone is bound to find a way to keep him at bay. After all, he had the same skill set in Atlanta that he does now, and his play was erratic to say the least.  

Predicted Record: 10-6 (2^nd in NFC East….#6 seed in the NFC)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (6-3)

What to like…

Josh Freeman. The kid can play the position of quarterback in the NFL. He has shown poise all year long, and is near the top of the list of QB’s whose hands you want on the ball when the game is on the line. In a clutch spot, you’d take Freeman on your team.

Their defense is opportunistic and has forced 19 turnovers this year in 9 games, including 14 interceptions. If their offense successfully protects the ball, they should win the turnover margin routinely.

What not to like…   

They are the Bucs. They are in the NFC South, which means they would have to make the playoffs as a 3^rd place team. This is very hard to do, especially in a year like this in which there are so many contending teams.

Hofstra’s own Raheem Morris put a bullseye on his team’s back by declaring them the “best in the NFC” earlier in the year. Act like ya’ been there dude…you almost got fired last year.

They’ve had a nice year, but will start to sputter very soon. 9-7 is well above what most expected from them this year.

Predicted Record: 9-7 (3^rd in NFC South….miss playoffs)

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS (as of Week 10):

We can all agree that the NFC West could send an All-Star team to the playoffs to represent them as the #4 seed, and they are not advancing in the playoffs. Especially since they will likely match up with the high-powered runner-up team of either the NFC East or NFC South.

Wild Card Round

#5 Saints over #4 NFC West All-Stars

#6 Eagles over #3 Packers

Divisional Round

#1 Falcons over #6 Eagles

#2 Giants over #5 Saints

NFC Championship

#1 Falcons over #2 Giants

Wade Phillips - A Soothing Epilogue

I remember very clearly the week leading up to the Cowboys hiring of Wade Phillips in 2007. The Bill Parcells era had just come to a somewhat disappointing close. Don't get me wrong ... I was very happy that the Tuna led the Cowboys out of the dreadful Dave Campo/Chan Gailey era, but I felt like the team needed a different voice to take it to the next level. Jason Garrett's stock at the time was through the roof, so much so that he was signed to a contract in an undefined capacity as the Cowboys continued to search for a head coach.

Enter Wade Phillips. Fresh off a 14-2 season as the defensive coordinator of the San Diego Chargers, he brought to the table a brilliant defensive mind and a "player's coach" reputation that was a change from the icy, crass demeanor of Bill Parcells. Jerry Jones made it no secret at his introductory press conference why Wade was the choice:

"We needed to get it right," Jerry Jones said, pausing as tears welled up in his eyes. "In my mind, we got it right."

.......................................................................NOT!

Phillips tasted success early in Dallas, going 13-3 in his first season, and running away with the NFC East. The defense flew around the field to the tune of  46 sacks (3rd most in the NFL). On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys boasted the 2nd ranked offense in the NFL. Tony Romo, who had emerged as a young star during the last 10 games of 2006, blossomed into a Pro Bowl player under the watch of Jason Garrett.

Everything changed on January 13th of that year. The Cowboys had finished 3 games ahead of the New York Giants in the NFC East. Hosting the divisional playoffs as the NFC's top seed, the Cowboys fell 21-17 on a late Brandon Jacobs touchdown run.

The questions swirled....questions from which Wade Phillips would seemingly never recover:

• How long would the playoff win drought continue? (last playoff win in 1996)
• Could Tony Romo play well in a big spot? (fumbled as holder on last play of wild card game at Seattle in 2006)
• Did Wade simply achieve this succcess with Bill Parcells' team?
• Did the Cowboys miss the "presence" of a coach with "presence" come playoff time?

 The next two and a half years were plagued by good, yet unspectacular football. Flashes of greatness broke through the clouds at times, but would always be washed away by other things that were going on.

• Flozell Adams leading the league in holding penalties.
• Terrell Owens walking around the locker room with his "gasoline can" in hand.
• Roy E. Williams costing us first day draft picks for his "potential".
• "Pacman" Jones & "Tank" Williams - stupid nicknames, stupider people
• Mike Jenkins poor tackling & effort.
• Atrocious kicking game (Shaun Suisham, Nick Folk, Graham Gano...and Buehler...Buehler...Buehler)
• Costly turnovers and dumb penalties cost the 'boys games at the worst times.

Cowboys fans such as myself began to yearn for a more disciplined culture, the exact type of culture that was vacated in 2007 when Bill Parcells stepped down. Wade was on his way out in 2009, when the Cowboys made a late season run to make the playoffs, then won their first playoff game since '96 with a win over the Philadelphia Eagles. This was enough to save his job, even with a 34-3 defeat to the Vikings in the divisional round.

The 2010 season was a perfect storm for the Cowboys. In many ways, the opening game in Washington set the tone for the beginning of the end for Wade Phillips in Dallas. A Tashard Choice fumble (in a kneel down situation) before halftime was scooped up for a Redskins touchdown. Penalties plagued both sides of the football, the running game was nonexistent.

Mistakes, mistakes, mistakes....culminating in the game winning touchdown being nullified on a holding penalty that will probably make the NFL Referee Training Video as a textbook case of a hold. The season spiraled out of control, and the Cowboys were outscored 80-24 by the Jacksonville Jaguars and Green Bay Packers in Weeks 8 & 9.

Prior to Week 10, both the fans and Wade were put out of their misery, as Phillips was fired and replaced by Jason Garrett, who had grown into a source of blame by many Cowboys fans over the course of the Phillips era. It is now up to Garrett to steer the ship in the right direction.

When people look back statistically at Wade Phillips, they will see credentials that indicate a stellar run in Dallas:

• 2 NFC East titles
• NFC top seed 2007 playoffs
• .614 winning pct. (higher than Jimmy Johnson)

 But the fans who suffered through the Wade era know the true tail of the tape. Mistakes, mistakes, mistakes, and underachievement.

Good defensive coordinator......good man.....but good riddance!