AFC seasons past have been characterized by dominant teams. The Tom Brady-led Patriots. The Peyton Manning Colts. The smashmouth Steelers. Along with these perennial winners, other teams have cycled in showing some dominating seasons over the course of the last ten years (Ravens, Chargers, Titans to name a few). It seems as though each of the past few years, we have watched as an AFC team flirts with perfection. This year however, no AFC teams have emerged from the pack as dominating.
Even though the Jets & Patriots sit atop the pack at 8-2, each has not given fans a reason to proclaim them the favorite. The Steelers, Ravens, and Colts have flirted at times with being the top AFC dog, but have also sputtered in other spots. Other teams with roles worth mentioning are the overachievers (Chiefs & Raiders), the red hots (Jaguars), the underachievers (Chargers & Titans).
The parity in the AFC this year is unlike any year we have seen in recent memory. If the Chargers pull off a win tonight – as predicted by the pre-game “vibe” of this blogger, the AFC would have an incomparable 11 teams with a .500 or better record. You read that right. ELEVEN out of SIXTEEN.
This blog will focus on the teams that appear to be the cream of the crop at this time. A discussion of the “others” will be included, as many of them must be considered factors in the race. Comments are always welcome!
 |
| One of these guys will lead the Pats to the AFC East title. Both have awful hair. |
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (8-2)
What to like…
OK. I had to join the Brady-Bieber humor bandwagon (see pic). Insert Justin Bieber hair joke.
Would anyone who has an accurate read on this year’s Patriots please stand up? OK….sit down, you friggin' liars! We have watched this year as the Patriots dropped the early season “Best in the AFC” showdown to the Jets (who had dropped their own “Best in the AFC” showdown to Baltimore the week before). The Pats then went on a tear, ripping off 5 wins in a row, looking like champs. Consecutive signature wins over the aforementioned Ravens, the Chargers, and the Vikings (Randy Moss’s Vikings….err Brett Favre’s Vikings….err Brad Childress’s Vikings?). And then came the Browns game. The lowly Browns, with rookie Colt McCoy, unheralded Peyton Hillis, and no other offensive skill players worth mentioning (I can’t mention Ben Watson as a legitimate skill player and keep a straight face). They have since rebounded by shellacking the Pittsburgh Steelers and winning a marquee showdown with the Colts.
With their schedule to date, they are easily the most battle-tested team in the AFC, with quite inarguably the most battle-tested quarterback and most battle-tested head coach in recent memory. Tom Brady has a way of elevating the play of those around him. If they keep rolling, in a few weeks we will look back at this blog and scratch our heads at how PepeVibe did not designate them as the unquestioned cream of the crop.
What not to like…
Where is this magical bowl of pixie dust that Bill Belichik has? The Pats constantly add “no name” players to their mix, only to see them blossom into legitimate factors on their team. You could make the argument that aside from Tom Brady, all of their offensive “weapons” are Belichik creations – Wes Welker, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, Julian Edelman. Welker is established, but are we really to believe that a Super Bowl Champion team will be led by a rushing attack of BJGE and Woodhead? It’s tough to ignore the success they have had so far. The Patriots are statistically the NFL’s highest scoring team. That said, they hold an unusual distinction of going this whole season so far with never once having a game’s leading receiver. When it’s time to step up and make plays in the passing game, will they have someone to answer the bell?
If there is one notable point of concern for this team, it is the team’s defense and special teams. Their defense ranks in the bottom half of the league in almost every defensive category. While they have some playmakers (Mayo, Merriweather & McCourty), they also have difficulty stopping the pass and have been susceptible to the big play. If anyone is going to beat the Pats, it will be via a solid air attack. The loss of Stephen Gostkowski hurts. He was not having his most consistent year, but had been more solid in the games leading up to his season-ending injury. Shayne Graham has traditionally been accurate, but is not going to help in the field position game with his kickoffs.
Predicted Record: 13-3 (1st in AFC East…#1 seed in the AFC)
 |
| The Sanchize is starting to play with some serious chutzpah. |
NEW YORK JETS (8-2)
What to like…
Rex Ryan. I’m on board with his style. If you’re not, it doesn’t matter because his players are. When the players buy in to the coach’s style and system, usually good things happen. Confidence and swagger is infectious, and the Jets are evidence of that in 2010.
The game is on the line in the fourth quarter. Your team needs to march down and score. Name your top 5 quarterbacks you would want leading your team. If Mark Sanchez isn’t on your list, you haven’t been paying attention this year. Sanchez has that intangible way of showing his team “I got this” in a big spot. His pocket presence has improved, and he makes quality decisions more often than not. His improvement this year can be evidenced by comparing his stat line with his line after 10 games in 2009.
2009: 1,791 yards, 10 TD, 16 INT
2010: 2,306 yards, 15 TD, 7 INT
LaDainian Tomlinson was jettisoned from San Diego as slower, injury prone, ineffective, and washed up. He averaged 3.8 and 3.3 yards per carry, respectively, in his final two seasons in San Diego. The Jets took a flyer on him to add a veteran presence and to compliment “lead back” Shonn Greene. After 10 games, it’s Greene who is doing the complimenting. LT has averaged a robust 4.5 yards per carry in racking up nearly 700 rushing yards. Moreover, he has rediscovered his passing game prowess, leading the team in receptions with 43. If the Jets are going to win the AFC, they will need LT to remain healthy and their defense to step up.
As a final note, if Santonio Holmes continues at his current pace (and stays away from Mary Jane), he could be one of the great offseason acquisitions in recent memory – traded to the Jets for a 5th round pick. Wow.
What not to like…
There is an enormous bulls-eye on their back. Everyone likes to think that professional athletes don’t ever need “extra” motivation to get amped up for a game. I’m not buying it. The “Hard Knocks” fallout is ongoing, and teams will be gunning for them the rest of the year to get a chance to shut Rex up.
In their remaining games, Braylon Edwards will drop at least one pass in a big spot that costs the Jets a game. Jets fans just have to hope it’s not in the playoffs.
Their defense was dubbed “All-World” prior to this season, but has been remarkably ordinary. OK, so they’ve been above average and have even turned in an occasional dominating performance. But there are holes. They are there. If you want proof, see last week’s game when their defense collapsed in the 4th quarter before getting bailed out by the offense.
Predicted Record: 11-5 (2nd in AFC East…#5 seed in the AFC)
 |
| Explosive Rutgers product Ray Rice could be the key to the Ravens playoff run. |
BALTIMORE RAVENS (7-3)
What to like…
Joe Flacco has really come into his own at quarterback for the Ravens. He’s making smart decisions, putting up numbers, and earning “W’s”. He’s got a few new toys to play with in Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Todd Heap has experienced a renaissance.
Ray Rice is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. Even though he’s been slightly inconsistent this year, he still has a legitimate chance to approach last year’s production if he stays healthy and gets hot.
The Ravens traditionally have a good defense, and having Ed Reed healthy helps. He created an INT-to-lateral-to TD in last week’s game in Carolina. Vintage Ed Reed. Although not as dominant as some of their defenses of previous years, they are above average in a league with no “great” defenses.
Lastly, John Harbaugh can flat out coach. It’s rare that a guy replaces a Super Bowl winning coach (Brian Billick) and actually elevates the play of the team. The Ravens were in danger of fading back into the “Cleveland Browns Land of Mediocrity” before hiring Harbaugh as their head coach.
What not to like…
While young on offense (Flacco & Rice), the Ravens are getting older on defense. Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs provide some young playmaking ability, but it’s only a matter of time before Ray Lewis and Ed Reed succumb to old guy syndrome (losing a few steps). At this point, the Ravens are glad to just have Reed on the field.
Have had one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL this year, and it will wear this team down by the end of the year.
Predicted Record: 10-6 (2nd in AFC North…#6 seed in the AFC)
 |
| Who has 2 super bowl rings? This guy! |
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-3)
What to like…
Ben Roethlisberger has never played this well in his career. Ever. He has found a consistent big play guy in Mike Wallace, while Rashard Mendenhall has proven that he can stay healthy. The Steelers have proven that they can put points up and move the ball through the passing game, but can also control the clock through the running game.
Mike Tomlin has a more reserved swagger than the aforementioned Rex Ryan, but has a swagger nonetheless. He exudes a sense of expectations for excellence and attention to detail. His players love playing for him and he demands their very best.
Their 3 losses are to high quality teams (BAL, NO, NE), and they have a quality win over Atlanta while beating the teams they are supposed to beat.
What not to like…
Ben Roethlisberger. Just can’t get past the details of the club sexual assault story. Truly one of the guys I will never root for again.
Now on to their team. Their defense has been above average-to-outstanding for most of the year, but has had their hiccups. The Patriots hung 39 on them on primetime in Week 10. You have to ask yourself if Tom Brady & Company have the antidote to slow down the Steelers D. The Pats are one of the only teams this year that have been able to run the ball on Pittsburgh…and they are not a running team.
Depth is a question in some spots. Hines Ward is aging and has been banged up. Can you name another WR on their team besides Mike Wallace? What’s that, Antwaan Randle-El you say? Let me remind you that it’s not 2003 anymore. By doing this blog, I just found out that Arnaz Battle is on their roster. How ‘bout that? If Rashard Mendenhall gets hurt, they are screwed.
Predicted Record: 11-5 (1st in AFC North…#2 seed in the AFC)
 |
| "Pocket Hercules" is feelin' the MoJo right now. |
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (6-4)
What to like…
Slice it any way you want. MJD is just money. He’s been inconsistent at times this year, but “Pocket Hercules” is one of the few players in the NFL capable of dominating a game.
The Jags are on a 3-game winning streak and have shown how dangerous they can be with an effective passing game. This has been one of the great turnaround stories of this NFL season. The Jags QB situation was so bad that they started “Trentative” Edwards in one game and HS quarterbacks coach Todd Bouman in another. Since Garrard has returned healthy, their offense has exploded. Garrard is staking claim to the job beyond this year, and has turned Marcedes Lewis into a Pro Bowl-caliber tight end.
The Jags have their mojo working right now, and are one “signature” win away from being in the discussion of contenders. A win over the Giants this week could serve that purpose.
What not to like…
David Garrard, as well as he has played, will always be a question mark. Rarely do 32 year-old quarterbacks who have been historically mediocre undergo a renaissance that lasts more than a few games. Garrard will be looking to do just that. I just think it’s pie in the sky to expect him to keep rolling, and Jags fans know that. Right now they have to feel like they are waiting for the carriage to turn back into a pumpkin.
Although they have had some good games, I do not have a lot of confidence in their defense to come up with big plays when the game or season is on the line.
Their fan base is just – well, awful. They can’t sell tickets and appear to be on their way out of Jacksonville. A team like them needs to generate and rely on momentum, and a rabid fan base helps in that regard. They do not have such a fan base.
IF they get by the G-men this week, they could extend their streak to 6 with some cushy matchups going into a Week 15 showdown with the Colts. Make no bones about it. The AFC South Title goes through Indianapolis.
Predicted Record: 9-7 (2nd in AFC South…miss playoffs)
 |
| Hank Baskett wonders: "How come Peyton couldn't turn me into a star?" |
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (6-4)
What to like…
Peyton Manning is on their team. See the capsule on the New England Patriots and the discussion about how Tom Brady makes everyone around him better. Replace Welker, Green-Ellis, Edelman and Woodhead with Collie, Garcon, Tamme, and Blair White. The same observation applies. I feel like if things could’ve broken a different way for “bust” 1st round-pick wide receivers like Troy Williamson, Freddie Mitchell, or Reggie Williams, they could’ve been household names. If I were a marginal free agent wide receiver, I’d give my right arm to play for the Colts. But I guess I wouldn’t be much of a receiver, what with one arm and all. (….I’d still be better than Freddie Mitchell). The only receiver immune to the Peyton Manning effect that I can think of is Hank Baskett. But hey, it’s hard to hate on a man who’s married to Kendra.
The Colts can’t run the ball or play any defense (see below), but are always in the game because of their All-Pro quarterback.
What not to like…
Is Jim Caldwell a good coach? I don’t think anyone knows. The best I can give you is that he hasn’t managed to screw much up or get in Peyton Manning’s way since arriving in town. He had a 14-2 season in his first year, and has managed a 6-4 mark this year while battling key injuries. Will he thrive in a big spot, or will he be exposed as just the shepherd tending to Peyton Manning’s herd?
Joseph Addai being out really hurts. Mike Hart did a nice job filling in, but now he’s hurt. Donald Brown pretty much looks like a first round bust, and runs with no zip or authority. Javarris James is a short yardage back who warrants no more than 5 touches per game. They may need to utilize the short passing game to circumvent the need for a running game.
On a good day (with the scouts watching), I feel like I could rush for 100 yards against the Colts. Arian Foster will be sending them a Christmas card this year. Jacksonville poses a serious threat to them if they continue their hot streak. If MJD runs wild (and they are able to keep the ball out of Peyton’s hands), the Jags could give the Colts fits. With Foster, MJD, and CJ2K in their division, it’s a miracle the Colts are able to consistently win the AFC South. Maybe this is the year they don’t. The Jags are in first as of this blog.
Predicted Record: 10-6 (1st in AFC South…#3 seed AFC playoffs)
 |
| The Chiefs aren't going anywhere with Matt Cassel at QB. |
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (6-4)
What to like…
There really isn’t much I like about the Chiefs. They are winning the games they are supposed to win. They can run the ball pretty well, and Dwayne Bowe is the hottest receiver in the NFL right now.
I think on the whole Todd Haley is a good coach, and he has assembled a nice staff. I’m just not convinced that they are a playoff team right now. Maybe they can get hot, win some games, and prove me wrong. Maybe they are catching my blog at a bad time (demoralized by the Broncos 2 weeks ago….beat the Cardinals last week). If you don’t catch my drift, the Cardinals suck, and a win over them does not impress me.
That said, they have a very favorable schedule down the stretch with 3 winnable home games and road games in Seattle, St. Louis, and San Diego. They will have to hold off a hard-charging (no pun intended) Chargers team.
What not to like…
Matt Cassel’s just not going to get it done. The best thing he has going for him is that he is not Brodie Croyle. The Chiefs have often run gadget plays as their “go to” plays in running their offense this year, and a major reason why is that Cassel is incapable of making them an offensive threat. I often think they should line up Jamaal Charles at QB and run their offense with him and Jones in the backfield. But then I guess they’d have to get it to Dwayne Bowe somehow.
Prediction: 9-7 (2nd in AFC West….miss playoffs)
“THE REST”
 |
| Will Ronnie Brown continue to annoy Dolphins fans the way Roni Deutch annoys the human race? |
The Dolphins have showed signs of life this year, but unfortunately it’s not the right kind of life. Chad Henne has been dreadful after a promising 2009. Now that he is banged up, the Dolphins may have to turn to Tyler Thigpen at quarterback. That’s not something any team wants written about them. Ronnie Brown runs the ball like Roni Deutch (bah-zing!) and they do not get Ricky involved enough. I love Tony Sparano, but the Dolphins will be on the outside looking in this year. Prediction: 8-8 (3rd in AFC East…miss playoffs)
 |
| Are the Raiders cursed by "un-slighty righty" draft bust JaMarcus Russell? |
The Raiders have some good wins, but they lost to the San Francisco Deep6ers this year. In case you don’t understand the humor, Wikipedia says that the expression “Deep Six” means:
“A nautical expression indicating a water depth of 6 fathoms (36 feet) as measured by a sounding line; "deep six" acquired its idiomatic definition from the fact that something thrown overboard at or greater than this depth would be difficult if not impossible to recover.”
Translation, the 49ers suck and any team that loses to them is not going to the playoffs. Prediction: 7-9 (3rd in AFC West….miss playoffs)
 |
| In Rusty they trust... |
TENESSEE TITANS (5-5)
The Titans have had games in which they’ve looked like they were among the cream of the crop…and they’ve had games in which they’ve looked like they were the cream of mushroom (no charge for these zingers guys).
Vince Young is a disaster and will soon etch his name in the annals (or is it anals?) of history next to names such as JaMarcus Russell, Akili Smith, Ryan Leaf, and Tim Couch. Even Randy Moss knows that you don’t disrespect Jeff Fisher like he did. He will turn up someday as a quarterbacks coach at West Texas State University or something.
With VY now out for the year and Kerry Collins in bad shape. The Titans are prepared to turn to Rusty Smith at QB. Yeah, that’s really his name. Sounds like the punchline to a bad joke (Rusty “Trombone” Smith) or like he should be quarterbacking a team in a made-for-TV football movie.
The Titans have lost 3 in a row and face a tough schedule down the stretch. Rusty or no Rusty. Prediction: 8-8 (3rd in AFC South…miss playoffs)
 |
| Damn. I can't stand this guy. But damn, is he good. Who the hell makes a face like this? |
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-5)
Boy, do I loathe Phillip Rivers. His arrogance without substance (The Chargers have rarely won in a big spot), is rivaled only by the Bears’ Jay Cutler. The difference is that Phillip Rivers is actually good. Really good.
I’m including the Chargers in this blog in anticipation of them winning tonight’s MNF game against Denver. The Chargers are starting to peak. At the same time, the AFC West early season overachievers (Chiefs, Raiders) are starting to come back down to Earth. The Chargers lack a dominant, clock controlling rushing attack, but Rivers is going to finish with Dan Marino numbers. The Chargers have a nice schedule, and I predict they will make a run and sneak into the playoffs. Prediction: 10-6 (1st in AFC West…#4 seed in AFC)
___________________________________________________
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS (as of Week 11):
Wild Card Round
#5 Jets over #4 Chargers
#3 Colts over #6 Ravens
Divisional Round
#1 Patriots over #5 Jets
#2 Steelers over #3 Colts
AFC Championship
#1 Patriots over #2 Steelers
SUPER BOWL XLV
New England Patriots over Atlanta Falcons
Ok...I love this post. I hate your super bowl tho pep. To be perfectly honest im lovin the jets and the whole rex ryan style. What can I do. I can't beat them so I join them. They remind me of the 86 giants.. a lot of cardiac wins. Then it clicked and it was over. I see this in my crystal ball. Good job on both conferences tho pep. Im calling jets vs. Saints. And not just because drew brees is the poster child for the Droid. Hahaha. Two in a row for the aints!
ReplyDeleteI can't believe you are lovin' the Jets! Never thought I would see the day! The AFC playoffs will be better than any of us can ever remember. I think I could see a scenario in which any of my playoff teams could win the conference. The winner of the AFC North (Ravens or Steelers) will have a huge advantage.
ReplyDeleteI almost think Jackie snuck on here and posted under "Nicholas" to give the Jets some love.
BTW, after the Eagles-Giants game, I feel even better about my NFC pick. I think the NFC champ is coming out of the South (Falcons or Saints).
DAMN!!! I knew I shouldn't have given her my password!! Haha
ReplyDeletePuleio I can't wait to slice you up in my next blog!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteI can't believe Nick jumped ship so quick either...what's next? Mets jersey to go with his Phillies one? WOW I think Pat's fall somewhere along the way...
ReplyDeleteGiants over the Steelers in the big dance!