Championship Vibes

To all my loyal readers..I apologize. As you know, it's been quite awhile since I've blogged. It's been a combination of a hectic personal schedule and a lack of topics on which to vibe. I will admit that I did drop the ball on NFL playoff picks to this point, but what better place to start than with the conference championship games.

We've got quite the pair (TWSS) of matchups this weekend... Enjoy the games and keep the blog handy as your go-to piece of pregame analysis!

AFC: #1 New England Patriots vs. #2 Baltimore Ravens

In the AFC, you have the teams that have been the two best all season long. A prolific offense against a dynamic defense. Super Bowl champion Tom Brady against Super Bowl champion Ray Lewis. This game is intriguing from a tactical standpoint.

We aren't used to seeing a ton of points out of the Baltimore Ravens. Joe Flacco is usually good for 150-180 yards per game, while they play a ball control offense with Ray Rice (25-30 touches). When Rice breaks out, they are capable of putting up 30 points. However, if held in check, they are capable of, say, losing 12-7 to the Jacksonville Jaguars.



Paul Posluszny and the Jaguars average defense were able to bottle up Rice and shut down Baltimore's offense. It's not going to take a Herculean defensive effort to accomplish that.

With a reliance on their defense, Baltimore has been able to shut down opposing offenses and keep their offense running efficiently enough to win 12 regular season games. They are top 3 in the NFL in fewest defensive yards allowed and fewest points allowed. As usual, the Ravens can also score on defense, with 5 defensive TD's on the year.
We also aren't used to seeing a ton of points out of the New England Patriots....in the first minute of the game. The Patriots averaged 32.1ppg, while compiling just over 500 yards of offense per game. Among the top 3 in the league in both categories.  Their Hall of Fame QB threw for over 5,000 yards this year. They have the best tight end in football, along with another guy who's a top 5 tight end in football. They've proven that they can run up and down the field, and score almost at will.

The problem is that they also were in the the top 2 in the league in defensive yards allowed, and they yielded nearly as many passing yards as their QB threw for. Their secondary was suspect all season long, as they clearly felt the effects of getting rid of Brandon Meriweather.

OUTLOOK

I just don't see how Baltimore is going to do enough on offense to capitalize on New England's "poor" defense. I delibrately highlight the word "poor," because in a game like this you throw out all the stats, and anything that has happened previously this season. The Pats defense played outstandingly last week against the run-oriented Broncos. Minimize it with Tebow talk all you want, but at the end of the day they allowed only 10 points to a team that put up 30 on the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Brady's going to be finding holes downfield in the Ravens secondary, and the birds will need a couple of timely turnovers to swing the tide. They'll also need to control the clock with Rice and keep Brady and company on the sidelines.  Flacco will need to have a breakout game in the passing game, not necessarily with statistics, but with timely plays made down the field. Third down conversions, big plays to get them down the field, etc.

Your friendly neighborhood garbage man? Try again...outspoken Ravens safety Ed Reed.  

Ed Reed said it best this week. He knows the deal. The Ravens had trouble putting away the Texans and TJ Yates. How are they going to rally the troops enough to dominate the Patriots? This game will not be as close as people think.

PREDICTION:             Patriots 35, Ravens 24
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NFC: #2 San Francisco 49ers vs. #4 New York Giants

In the NFC, you have the two hottest teams. A great defensive team whose offense is hot, against a great offensive team whose defense is hot. Super Bowl champion Eli Manning vs. arguably the best defensive front seven in football. Old-school Tom Coughlin vs. wunderkind Jim Harbaugh.



The brash, new baby-faced players coach versus the dignified, canvas-faced disciplinarian.

Yes, San Fran is the #2 seed. However, many were picking the Saints as the odds-on favorite to challenge the Packers. The 49ers defense has been stellar all year, but their offense has been a relative question mark. Even as they methodically won games during the regular season, it was questionable whether they'd be able to make enough plays in the passing game to compete with the big dogs. Well, you got your answer last week, as Alex Smith and Vernon Davis "out-Breesed" Drew Brees and company. They seem to have the necessary mix of offense, defense, and moxie of a championship squad. They are as hot as any team in football.
As an objective blogger, I have to be honest about the Giants. I was super skeptical when they entered the playoffs and fans spoke that it would be "just like '07" because of their inconspicuous route to the playoffs. I didn't think they had enough to pull it together and take down any of the NFC's elite teams. And I was right to a point, because it's not like '07.

In their Super Bowl season, they had a stellar defense most of the year, and were able to pull it together on offense during their playoff run. With this current team, they have had a stellar offense for most of the year, and have seemed to have pulled it together on defense during the playoffs. Either way, they have definitely started coming together at the right time. Their defensive front gets as much pressure on the QB as any in football. They have been clicking on offense and making plays when it counts. They are as hot as any team in football.


OUTLOOK

This one has been killing me all week. As a rooting fan, I have no dog in this fight. I can't root for the Giants, because they are a hated NFC East rival. I can't root for the 49ers, because I grew up hating them and stupid Steve Young. My wife is a die hard Giants fan. My brother-in-law is a die hard 49ers fan (who's stuck around for the last 9 years as they've been abysmal). Either way, I'm at the end of the family bragging rights line.

This could be me tonight once my wife reads this blog...

That said, I have no choice but to be purely objective and pick this as a sports journalist would. Both teams are hot, so I give neither an edge there. New York's defense is playing well, but have just pulled it together the last 4-5 weeks or so. And they are still susceptible to big plays, which San Fran was able to exploit New Orleans with last week. The Niners, on the other hand, have played consistently good defense all year. They've been less susceptible to big plays, and will be able to get pressure on Eli.

The Giants offense is clearly superior, but it is definitely built on taking chances down the field. If Eli makes 1 or 2 mistakes in that regard, it could decide this one. The Niners offense (even with last week's performance) is not going to put a ton of points up on this Giants defense. However, they also don't take as many risks down the field, and will likely try to control the clock and keep Eli on the sidelines.

With absolutely no confidence in the pick at all.....

PREDICTION:             49ers 27, Giants 24