From 2000-2007, the AFC proved to be the more dominant of the two NFL conferences year in, and year out. During that time period, an AFC team won the Super Bowl every single year. Since that time, the AFC has sustained the public perception of being the more dominant conference, boasting the New England Bradys, the Indianapolis Peytons, the Baltimore Ray Rays, and the Pittsburgh Polamalus.
However, the NFC’s elite teams have held their own over the past 3 seasons, and have captured 2 of the past 3 Super Bowls (within a Santonio Holmes toe-drag of capturing all three). While the depth of the AFC is what many people cite when proclaiming it the better conference, the elite in the NFC have proven that they have what it takes to contend for Super Bowl titles.
This season, more so than usual, has produced extreme parity. Currently, there are 7 NFC teams with a record of 6-3 or better. With the NFC West occupying an unfortunate automatic playoff spot (hard to believe one of those teams will host a Wild Card game), the rest of the field will be battling for 5 berths in the postseason.
Two of these teams have a Super Bowl Champion QB, three of them have veteran QB’s who light up the stat sheet, but have never been to the Promised Land, and the other has a young QB who is polished and plays well in big spots.
Without further ado, here is a breakdown of these NFC elite:
ATLANTA FALCONS (7-2)
What to like…
The Falcons have turned into quite the offensive threat with Matt Ryan showing the leadership it takes to go deep into the playoffs. Roddy White has emerged as a Top 3 wide receiver in the NFL. Tony Gonzalez has continued to be a threat in the passing game, while also providing the team with playoff-experienced leadership on the offensive side of the ball. Yeah, the Chiefs used to go to the playoffs every year, remember? The Falcons make plays when it counts, and own 2 “signature” wins this year (Ravens, Saints). The defense is tough against the run, and though unspectacular, is solid overall.
They have a relatively easy schedule down the stretch, playing Carolina twice and the NFC West twice.
What not to like…
The Falcons have not had success in the state of Pennsylvania this year (losses to both Pittsburgh and Philadelphia), and what’s more telling is that both losses were outdoors to playoff-caliber teams. Securing home-field advantage throughout the playoffs would be HUGE for this team, as they have yet to prove they are capable of winning big games outdoors. They have two major tests (GB, NO) on their slate down the stretch, but both of them come at home.
Predicted Record: 12-4 (1st in NFC South…#1 seed in the NFC)
CHICAGO BEARS (6-3)
What to like…
The Bears defense has been stellar this season, although not at a level that they had been a few years ago. Their QB has a big arm and is operating in a Mike Martz system that seemingly suits him (throw it downfield, don’t worry about turnovers). If things click with Cutler, the Bears could be a dangerous team that could score at any moment (especially if they get Devin Hester going).
What not to like…
The Bears are running the Mike Martz “Greatest Show on Turf” offense without the “Greatest Show on Turf” players. Kurt Warner maintained a respectable 2:1 TD to INT ratio in his heyday under Martz. I’ve only seen Jay Cutler have that kind of season once ever – when I simulated a season in “Franchise Mode” on Madden 2007 and had traded Randy Moss from the Raiders to the Broncos for a future 1st round draft pick. Their running game is on life support. Chicago has become the home base for “tease fans-then-flop” running backs (Curtis Enis, Anthony Thomas, Cedric Benson).
They have the best kick returner in the history of the NFL, and they take him off the kick return team so they can get him more involved on offense. Then, they don’t get him more involved on offense. And – oh by the way, still don’t have him return kicks regularly. I also question the decision-making ability of the Lovie Smith/Mike Martz/Jay Cutler triumvirate when the game is on the line.
The Bears are looking at a tough remaining schedule (at MIN & GB, home to PHI, NWE, and NYJ)
Predicted Record: 8-8 (tied for 3rd in NFC North…miss playoffs)
GREEN BAY PACKERS (6-3)
What to like…
The Packers passing attack under Aaron Rodgers has been one of the most potent in the NFL. Rodgers also clearly possesses the intangible leadership qualities that make a winner. The Packers have proven that they can move the ball and score at a very high rate. They possess one of the most consistent kickers in the NFL in Mason Crosby.
Their defense was highly touted coming into the season, but it took a little while for things to click. Recently, they have been flying around the field and harder to score on than Lindsay Lohan on a night out (hey-oh!). They have allowed fewer than 10 points in 3 games this season, and have allowed more than 25 points only once. Clay Mathews is making a run at Defensive Player of the Year, and Charles Woodson keeps the secondary formidable.
The Packers have one of the most dynamic home field advantages in the league. The open air, natural grass Lambeau truly becomes a “frozen tundra” come playoff time. This is not an environment that many teams in the NFC are used to.
What not to like…
Rodgers has not yet proven that he can perform well in a big spot. There is no team in the NFL that has been as decimated by injuries as the Packers have. They have not consistently run the ball against a good team all year without Ryan Grant, and have still not replaced Jermichael Finley in the passing game (Although James Jones has taken on a bigger role). It’s questionable whether Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn can fill in for Grant at a high level, and if the loss of Finley in the vertical passing game will be overcome with the emergence of Jones.
While Lambeau Field boasts playoff aura and mystique, it is not as taboo as it once was to think that the Packers could lose there.
Predicted Record: 10-6 (1st in NFC North….#3 seed in the NFC)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (6-3)
What to like…
They are the defending Super Bowl Champions.
They’ve been down this road before. They have the best quarterback in the NFC, and he has a Super Bowl Championship ring under his belt (err…I guess it’s probably on his finger). Drew Brees is capable of putting the team on his back, and Sean Payton is a confident head coach who has the tools to keep the team in a proper state of mind as they try to repeat.
Their passing attack has been above average this year (although not as prolific as in previous years). They are able to move the ball down the field as well as any team in the NFC, and have an assortment of deep threats (Robert Meacham, Devery Henderson) and red zone weapons (Jeremy Shockey, Marques Colston, Lance Moore).
They have one of the most well-respected defensive coordinators in Gregg Williams who has kept the Saints defense playing semi-well.
They could be getting two-headed rushing monster Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush back at just the right time.
What not to like…
They are the defending Super Bowl Champions.
They’ve been down this road before, and the “Super Bowl hangover” is a scientifically proven phenomenon, with a few exceptions.
Their woes in the running game cannot be ignored. Reggie Bush is due back soon, but may take a few weeks to get back to full speed. There is no guarantee that Pierre Thomas comes back this season. And if he does, how productive will he be? Is a backfield that consists of Chris Ivory, Julius Jones, and Ladell Betts capable of producing for a Super Bowl winning team? If the Saints pull it out, they could end up being the Super Bowl winner that has the lowest yardage for a leading rusher ever.
Their defense has also taken a step back and while still solid, has not been able to create turnover opportunities like they had been last year.
Can they win outdoors on the road in the playoffs?
Predicted Record: 11-5 (2nd in NFC South…..#5 seed in the NFC)
NEW YORK GIANTS (6-3)
What to like…
They have a Super Bowl champion quarterback who appears to have come into his own this season. If Eli Manning’s receivers had more consistent hands, you could wipe 5-7 interceptions off his stat line for the year. Eli is playing like an All-Pro, and the Giants offense has performed at a very high level all year long.
Their rushing attack has been a revelation. Questions about Brandon Jacobs’ ability to handle the feature back role have allowed Ahmad Bradshaw to seize the starting role, emerging as one of the most elusive running backs in the NFC. Bradshaw’s ability to stop and cut on a dime causes football fans everywhere to cringe and reach for their ACL. Jacobs has shaken off some early season disdain to turn into a force as a bruising, change-of-pace back.
Hakeem Nicks has blossomed into one of the NFL’s best playmakers in the passing game, and has shown the ability to make big plays on a consistent basis. Eli’s ability to involve auxiliary parts (Manningham, Boss, Bradshaw on screens) in the passing game has contributed to the success of the offense.
The Giants defense has looked at times like the best defense in the NFL. They absolutely abused Charlie Whitehurst in Seattle, and Jay Cutler is still tossing and turning at night seeing Big Blue monsters charging at him. Their secondary has shown the ability to create turnovers, and they have no shortage of athletes on the defensive side of the ball.
The Giants have leadership in the right places coupled with young, explosive talent that is hungry to win.
What not to like…
They are the capable of coming out and laying a dud at any time, without warning. Last week many experts hailed the Giants as the “best in the NFC” after they thumped the Seattle Seahawks with an offensive fireworks display. This week, the right mix of injuries, penalties, mistakes, and a rejuvenated Dallas Cowboys team resulted in a Giants loss.
As much as their passing game has been stellar this year, it is crazy to think where they might be had their receivers learned how to catch the ball properly. Not only do the Giants receiving corps drop passes, but they drop them in a way that has often created interceptions for the opposing defense. Even the usually sure-handed Steve Smith had difficulty being consistent this year. A costly WR drop at the wrong time could spell doom for Big Blue.
The Giants have MAJOR injury issues. Their offensive line is decimated without Shaun “Scarlet (Knight)” O’Hara, David Diehl, and Will Beatty. While fill-ins have performed respectably at times, the absence of these de facto leaders could hurt the Giants in the playoffs. Pro Bowler Steve Smith could be lost for up to 8 weeks, and Ramses Barden just broke his ankle. The fallout? Derek Hagan has a job again. The bad news: Derek Hagan is no David Tyree (the best 5th string WR in Giants history). Kevin Boss is also banged up, depleting the passing game even further.
Predicted Record: 11-5 (1st in NFC East….#2 seed in the NFC)
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (6-3)
What to like…
They turned in quite possibly the single most explosive offensive performance of the season last week at Washington. They have arguably (but not really arguably…they pretty much are) the best duo of playmakers in the league in Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson.
Andy Reid’s west coast game plan has helped Vick in making smarter, high percentage decisions both inside and out of the pocket. Vick’s pocket awareness is unlike anything he showed in Atlanta. He has a very legitimate chance to enter the NFL MVP discussion, despite having missed 3 games.
DeSean, although a serious Ryobi (that’s a tool….get it?), runs deep routes better than anyone in the league, and is a threat to score a touchdown every single time he touches the ball. Maclin and he are a scary task for any defensive secondary, especially if you have to sacrifice someone in coverage to shadow Michael Vick.
What not to like…
How many characters am I allowed to type? They are the Eagles. There is A LOT not to like. They lack an on the field leader with significant playoff experience. Michael Vick getting injured would make them into a completely different team (and a less explosive one). Why mention that? Vick’s style of play lends itself to injury at some point. As team’s begin to see more and more film on Vick, someone is bound to find a way to keep him at bay. After all, he had the same skill set in Atlanta that he does now, and his play was erratic to say the least.
Predicted Record: 10-6 (2nd in NFC East….#6 seed in the NFC)
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (6-3)
What to like…
Josh Freeman. The kid can play the position of quarterback in the NFL. He has shown poise all year long, and is near the top of the list of QB’s whose hands you want on the ball when the game is on the line. In a clutch spot, you’d take Freeman on your team.
Their defense is opportunistic and has forced 19 turnovers this year in 9 games, including 14 interceptions. If their offense successfully protects the ball, they should win the turnover margin routinely.
What not to like…
They are the Bucs. They are in the NFC South, which means they would have to make the playoffs as a 3rd place team. This is very hard to do, especially in a year like this in which there are so many contending teams.
Hofstra’s own Raheem Morris put a bullseye on his team’s back by declaring them the “best in the NFC” earlier in the year. Act like ya’ been there dude…you almost got fired last year.
They’ve had a nice year, but will start to sputter very soon. 9-7 is well above what most expected from them this year.
Predicted Record: 9-7 (3rd in NFC South….miss playoffs)
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS (as of Week 10):
We can all agree that the NFC West could send an All-Star team to the playoffs to represent them as the #4 seed, and they are not advancing in the playoffs. Especially since they will likely match up with the high-powered runner-up team of either the NFC East or NFC South.
Wild Card Round
#5 Saints over #4 NFC West All-Stars
#6 Eagles over #3 Packers
Divisional Round
#1 Falcons over #6 Eagles
#2 Giants over #5 Saints
NFC Championship
#1 Falcons over #2 Giants
You are a friggen animal pep. I should hire you to do weekly predictions in fantasy. great job.
ReplyDeleteNice job...I would, however, have liked to see this blog posted one week later as I think this upcoming week's matchup btw Giants and Eagles will go along way to deciding who is coming out on top in that division. Giants have yet to prove themselves against a good playoff type team and the colts (who resemble the Saints IMHO) picked them apart. I fear that is a bad matchup for them. I also think Atlanta is a bit overrated in your blog and I am begining to sense a mancrush on Matty Ice. If only Brett the hitman Garder played football for the Falcons it could be LOVE and the sad cowgirls would just be an afterthought!
ReplyDeleteGo G-MEN!