One of the greatest predictors of success in fantasy football has got to be stability at the quarterback position. While issues at RB or WR can often be solved (or alleviated) via the waiver wire, it’s tough to grab an adequate signal caller to plug a hole. It's likely that if you are drawn into a later drafting position, you will ponder taking a signal caller with one of your first two picks. As you will see below, if you play the waiting game, you will likely be able to grab some value later in the draft.
Can’t Miss
Our Can’t Miss group contains guys who put up top flight numbers, while posing little injury risk. There are only 4 this year.
So, let’s start with the most obvious choice, Tom Brady. You know that Brady is going to put up numbers. What’s more, he’s got the potential to put up 40 points in any given week. If you’re looking for a guaranteed 25-30 each week, you can’t go wrong with Brady. Aside from a slow few weeks here and there, Drew Brees has been consistently among the top fantasy QB’s.
Our next two have graduated from being under the radar to the upper echelon of fantasy success. We are talking sustained, consistent, Pro Bowl caliber production on a yearly basis. While Aaron Rodgers has been a Top 5 QB for a few years now, the same cannot be said for Phillip Rivers. Rivers flourished last year with no LT, and it appears that the Chargers have redesigned their offense with Rivers at the center of everything. If you don’t mind having a douche on your team, Rivers is your man. Rodgers has proven to be streaky at times, and it must be considered that he faces a tough schedule of opposing defenses. However, aside from top flight QB production, he will also grab you a few points with his legs, which boosts his value.
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| It's time to accept the obvious - Phillip Rivers is one of the best fantasy quarterbacks around. Despite having some Jay Cutler-esque douche-yness to him, you can feel comfortable running him out there 15 of 16 fantasy games in 2011. |
Upper Tier
The quarterbacks in this Upper Tier just barely miss out on being Can’t Miss, for one reason or another. The list has to begin with Peyton Manning. He’s very close to being Can’t Miss, but his injury situation brings him back to Earth a bit. In addition, I’m not in love with their offensive weapons. Dallas Clark is coming off a serious injury, and the Colts running game was a constant problem last year. I’m not convinced that Jim Caldwell can coach a football team that doesn’t have Peyton Manning at quarterback.
As much as it pains me, Michael Vick has to be right here on this list. Absent the obvious injury concern, Vick flirts with being Can’t Miss. There were weeks last year in which he threw up respectable running back numbers, on top of his quarterback production. There is no substitute for a quarterback who can throw up 10+ points with his legs each week. The potential for scrambling goal line TD’s is also increased. Because of this potential, Vick is worth mentioning apart from the rest of the pack.
Our next group within the upper tier contains quarterbacks who have flirted with being spectacular, but cannot be considered Can’t Miss. Matt Schaub and Tony Romo are quarterbacks who had a rougher 2010 than most expected. Schaub was projected to enter the Brady-Brees tier, but failed to put up numbers at that clip (due in large part to the emergence of Arian Foster and the running game). Romo, of course, succumbed to injury and missed most of the season. Romo averaged nearly 25 ppg in the five full games he played, while Schaub came on late last year, averaging about 24 ppg. Those signs point to big production from these two this year.
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| Expect a huge bounce back year from Romo. The 'boys will be heavily relying on the passing game this year, with Felix Jones, Tashard Choice, and rookie DeMarco Murray carrying the ball in the running game. I'll take Witten and Austin to have big years as well. |
Solid Options
Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco came into the league together and have since been linked in numerous QB comparisons. They are linked once again as being just shy of the Upper Tier of QBs. In fact, I’m going to go on record as saying that Ryan will join the Upper Tier this year, having Julio Jones in the fold as a weapon. Flacco is kind of a Troy Aikman type (plays solid football, but his ability to put up numbers is hampered by the success of his running game).
Ben Roethlisberger looks ready to have another solid campaign, although it would be tough for him to enter the upper tier due to the Steelers offensive philosophy (ground and pound). He does have some exciting weapons with Mike Wallace and the emergent Emmanuel Sanders, so don’t be too disappointed if Big Ben is your quarterback….unless your team has a code of conduct.
Josh Freeman proved all naysayers – myself included – wrong last season with a Top 10 finish (18.5 ppg) among quarterbacks. Although aided with a 41 point Week 16 showing, Freeman was consistent for most of the year. Like Vick and Rodgers, Freeman provides an added bonus with his scrambling ability (although he did not get into the end zone on the ground much last year). Like Matt Ryan, Freeman has the potential to make the leap into the next tier during this year. He’s just so young that it’s tough to rate him as such right now, having only one stellar season under his belt. If you’ve drafted standouts at other skill positions, and are “stuck” with Freeman as your quarterback, you should be very happy.
And finally, begrudgingly, I’ll include Jay Cutler as Solid…but I’m not happy about it. Just to be clear, I wouldn't be caught dead with Cutler on my team. While Cutler is a player I wouldn’t touch with a 10 foot pole, he could provide you with some Can’t Miss type weeks (over 25 points five times last season). However, he also has the potential to fall on his face (Under 10 points five times last season). I don’t drop him down a tier just because he will end up as a starter in just about every fantasy league. Bleh…gag me.
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| If it isn't two of The Vibe's favorite targets, Douche #1 and Douche #2. Resisting the temptation to repost the "Drink Like a Champion" pic of Big Ben, since I've used it twice already. The big fella tied the knot (left) over the summer, while Cutler's romance (right) fell apart, probably because she read The Vibe's take on her boy #6.... Emotions aside, any way you slice it, these two are solid fantasy options. |
Top Backups
I’ve got to separate these guys, because some of them have the potential to end up with fantasy-stud-like numbers. For example, Eli Manning probably made owners pull their hair out last year with inconsistency and interceptions (although largely not his fault), but he finished as the 10th ranked quarterback. Matt Cassel finished 11th and ended up with some quality numbers, but I’m going to have to see that out of him again before I move him up a tier. Ryan Fitzpatrick also played well for most of last season, but has not shown sustained NFL success yet. On top of that….he plays for the Buffalo Bills. Lastly, Sam Bradford showed signs of breaking out last year, but was very inconsistent down the stretch last year. Bradford’s point totals in the last 6 weeks = 33, 5, 11, 3, 15, 4. With his second season in this offense, Bradford should make a move to hop over Cutler.
Our next group of guys finished right there with EManning, Cassel, and Fitzpatrick point-wise, but will be playing this season with competent (allegedly) backups nipping at their heels. David Garrard played outstandingly at times last year, but has Blaine Gabbert in camp this year as the Jags QB of the future. A slow start could result in Garrard’s benching. Kyle Orton is Denver’s man, but with Tim Tebow waiting to take over, you have to wonder how stable Orton’s situation is. If traded to the Dolphins, Orton would have been worth solid mention with Eli, Cassel, and Fitz.
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| Eli will still not have Tyree around to...um, service him. Even so, you could do a lot worse than Eli as a fantasy option. If he cuts back on the INT's (or, if his receivers cut back on the hot potato drops) he could end up as a breakout player this year fantasywise. The problem with that statement, however, is that we've been saying that for a few years now. |
Competent Fill-Ins
These guys are players I would never trust to lead my team for more than one week. These are guys who you might be able to grab off waivers at times this year to fill-in for your starting quarterback. This group contains a few young guys like Mark Sanchez and Colt McCoy as well as some veterans like Donovan McNabb, Matt Hasselbeck, Alex Smith, and Jason Campbell.
Sanchez and McCoy are young players who do not possess (or have not shown to have) All-Pro caliber potential. But, they could have nice years. Sanchez would be more likely to be used as a fill-in than McCoy, but McCoy has scrambling ability that could make him worthy of use at some point this year.
McNabb and Hasselbeck will be asked to manage their respective offenses, while having pieces around them that could result in successful team seasons. They also run the risk of being replaced by Christian Ponder and Jake Locker, respectively. Alex Smith is keeping the seat warm for the 49ers real QB of the future, but has some upside. I’ll always be indebted to Alex Smith for QBing my team in my championship game 2 years ago (Peyton was my QB, and the Colts were not going to play him in Week 16). Smith could show value at times this year, but probably just as a fill in. Jason Campbell has the ability to put up 25 points in any given week, but he also has the ability to lose his job to players like Bruce Gradkowski. Good news for Campbell, as Gradkowski is gone. Bad news though, is that he still plays for the Raiders.
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| Colt McCoy (left) and Mark Sanchez (right) might have some fantasy relevance this year, but neither can be counted on for consistent production. Sanchez, with more offensive weapons and a greater Jets commitment to the pass, could move up into the next tier by the end of the season. McCoy is a major wild card, and could have upside if he starts scoring fantasy points with his legs. |
Leave Em Alone
If these guys find their way onto your roster this year, your team is waist deep in it. You are one step shy of waiving the white flag. These are players who have the ability to lose their gig at any given time this year, and cannot be trusted under any circumstance. Let’s start with Dolphins QB Chad Henne, who appears to have a little Dave Brown in him (Giants fans know exactly what I’m talking about). Another pair of veterans, Rex Grossman and Charlie Whitehurst, could very well find themselves out of the lineup in favor of John Beck and Tavaris Jackson, respectively. All four of them belong in this section.
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| No matter how hard I try, I can't stop calling Charlie Whitehurst "Wally Whitehurst". Thanks to this guy! Just like ol' Wally, Charlie isn't a guy you want on your team either. |
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| As funny as "The Shermanator" is, let's be honest. You don't want poor Andy Dalton on your team. This kind of reminds me of when the Panthers drafted Chris Weinke and inexplicably handed the franchise over to him in his rookie year. They went 1-15. Expect the Bungles to suffer a similar fate. Make sure your fantasy team doesn't. |
These last two guys I have absolutely no idea how to evaluate. Each has shown signs of breakout potential and elite production over the past two years. Each has also played in fewer than half of his team’s games over the past two years. That being said, I decided to devote a special section to these two.
Matthew Stafford looks to be a leader with a strong arm who is mentally tough. I still remember him throwing a 2-point conversion pass with a separated shoulder. His problem is that he can’t stay on the field. His shoulders separate when he blows his nose. Given a full season, I have every confidence that he could outperform even the Solid tier. Detroit’s QBs actually had a collectively above average season last year. That could be Stafford. But he has to stay on the field.
Kevin Kolb was the off season’s biggest acquisition. It wasn’t enough pressure that the Cards traded a starting corner (Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie) and a 2nd round pick to acquire him. They then signed him to a 5-yr, $63 million contract. All of this for a player who has not yet started 10 NFL games. Kolb has looked capable of playing like Matt Schaub/Tony Romo, but has also looked like Chad Henne at times.
Expect both Kolb and Stafford to get drafted in with the Top Backups (Eli, Cassel, Fitzpatrick, Bradford) in your league. I’d expect someone to jump on Kolb first, maybe even as their starter. Stafford I would grab later in the draft as a flier if you’re set at quarterback already.
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| One thing is for sure, Kolb won't be worse than the Derek Anderson/Max Hall/John Skelton experiment of 2010. However, will he be a viable fantasy starter with Larry Fitz catching balls from him? |
Drafting Strategy
Having stability at quarterback can go a long way toward fantasy football success. Do not discount the importance of drafting well at QB, especially in selecting a potential backup. Very few QB’s start all 16 games, and your ability to evaluate the position from 1-32 can save your season if your #1 guy goes down. If you are going to take one of the Can't Miss or Upper Tier QB's early, you should grab a semisolid backup in rounds 12-14 just as some insurance. You will likely start your top guy every game all year (except the BYE), but it's important to have a capable fill-in. If you wait and draft a Flacco/Ryan/Roethlisberger type as your starter, you will want to grab a Top Backup such as Eli or Bradford as some insurance. Especially if you are a "play the matchups" kind of guy, you need to have 2 competent QB's.
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