2011 Fantasy RB Preview

The fantasy breadwinners. These guys are grouped based on a combination of their consensus projections, their performance last season, and where I feel they will be drafted in most drafts. There will certainly be some movement and change. Especially given that in a 12 team league, it’s very unlikely that 30 RB’s will get chosen in the first 3 rounds. I’ve chosen to “chunk” the rounds into groups of 10-11 running backs. For further elaboration on each group, read the blurb underneath.

First Round Prospects

Listed alphabetically

·         Jamaal Charles

·         Matt Forte

·         Arian Foster

·         Peyton Hillis

·         Chris Johnson

·         Maurice Jones-Drew

·         LeSean McCoy

·         Ray Rice

·         Adrian Peterson

·         Michael Turner

While this is quite a group, it has to have fantasy owners who pick in the middle of the first round quite apprehensive. Peterson, Charles, and Rice you can feel pretty good about taking. Arian Foster will have a great year again, but will not be worthy of a Top 3 pick when all is said and done. The presence of Ben Tate (injured last year) threatens to steal some taters away. If the Titans screw up the Chris Johnson situation and he misses games, it could be awful. I think they get it done and he has a banner year, but it does hurt his draft stock slightly.



Take your pick with Hillis criticism. Wore down at the end of last year. Fumbling issues. Madden curse. I wouldn't avoid him entirely in your draft, but I wouldn't draft him as my top RB.

Now to the guys who threaten to provide you with sub-first round return. Turner and Hillis wore down at the end of last season. Hillis needs to prove that he can repeat last year’s performance, and Turner is reaching the age (29) where running backs start to fade away. Jones-Drew and Forte provide value in the passing game, but MJD is getting up there in age and has Rashad Jennings to shoulder some of the load. Marion Barber will most certainly steal goal line carries away from Forte. Lastly, McCoy has Ronnie Brown in the mix in Philly, and Andy Reid has a little Mike Shanahan in him (Fantasy RB killer).

Second Round Prospects

Listed alphabetically

·         Cedric Benson

·         LeGarrette Blount

·         Ahmad Bradshaw

·         Frank Gore

·         BenJarvus Green-Ellis

·         Steven Jackson

·         Marshawn Lynch

·         Darren McFadden

·         Rashard Mendenhall

·         Knowshon Moreno

Rounds 2 and 3 provide some of the most interesting picks in a fantasy draft. You have guys who pick by the book and take the best available RB. You have guys who jump on a QB or a WR hoping to be the first to nab one of the top guys at that position. You could even see someone jump on a TE (Gates, Witten). All that makes this group (and the Rd 3 group) intriguing. Benson, Blount, Gore, Jackson, Lynch, Mendenhall, and Moreno have the luxury of being the unequivocal feature back on their respective teams. I don’t love S-Jax or Lynch, and Moreno has been injury prone. Benson is just going to be an absolute disaster this year. As a general rule, try to avoid any Bengal in your draft.



The many faces of Cedric Benson. Former first round pick Benson has had his share of trouble off the field, including this past offseason. Now, he's carrying the ball for the worst offense in football. Good luck Benson owners. I'm not touching him unless it's as my RB3 or RB4.

Ahmad Bradshaw is in a semi-time share, but possesses first round upside. Expect him to be taken in the first round in many drafts. What he loses in goal line carries is made up for in the passing game. McFadden I’m just not big on. Injury concerns aside, he was very inconsistent last season. He finished as the 7^th overall RB, but that was largely due to a 47 point week against Denver in Week 7 and a 42.5 point week against Jacksonville in Week 14. Lastly, Green-Ellis is my boy…I just don’t trust Belichick. BJGE could have a 25 point game in Week 1, and get only 5 carries (deferring to Danny Woodhead) in Week 2. As much as I love him, I’m passing.

Third Round Prospects

Listed alphabetically

·         Joseph Addai

·         Jahvid Best

·         Ryan Grant

·         Shonn Greene

·         Tim Hightower

·         Brandon Jacobs

·         Thomas Jones

·         Fred Jackson

·         Jonathan Stewart

·         Beanie Wells

·         DeAngelo Williams

A lot of uncertainty here, but also a lot of upside for a 3^rd-4^th round value pick. Of this group, I would absolutely avoid Greene, Jones, and Wells. Greene and Wells haven’t proven to me that they can be feature backs in an NFL offense. Thomas Jones has been one of the better fantasy RBs for the better part of a decade, but his time is up. Not crazy about Jahvid Best in the 3^rd round, but if he slipped to 4^th / 5^th round, I’d consider taking a flier. He has to prove that he can produce in the passing game before I’m loving him, because he’s not getting 20+ carries a game. Ryan Grant and DeAngelo Williams are intriguing, with each returning from injury. Grant should get feature back carries, while Williams has proven he can produce in a time share with Jonathan Stewart in the past. Stewart will steal some goal line touches away, but it’s possible that both can have stellar years, given Carolina’s issues at QB. I expect Newton to check down to Williams and Greg Olsen a lot, boosting each’s value.



Will Hightower be a Shanahan's Clinton Portis? Or a Shanahan's Selvin Young?

Joseph Addai has not been healthy in years, and could be part of a three-headed backfield in Indianapolis. I think Addai emerges as the best option in Indy, but I’m not crazy about him. Fred Jackson has sneaky value here. He’ll get feature back touches and has been very consistent. You’re nuts if you think CJ Spiller is going to significantly cut into his carries. Brandon Jacobs is another great value in the third round. He’ll score a lot with goal line TD’s, and scores a lot when the Giants are ahead in a game and looking to close it out. Tim Hightower looks to have amazing upside in Washington. There’s just one problem….Mike Shanahan. If you’ve ever toiled with the Ryan Torains, Peyton Hillis’, Quentin Griffins, and Selvin Youngs of the world, you know what I’m talking about.

The Rest

Listed alphabetically

·         Ronnie Brown

·         Michael Bush

·         Reggie Bush

·         Mark Ingram

·         Rashad Jennings

·         Felix Jones

·         Ryan Mathews

·         Darren Sproles

·         James Starks

·         Daniel Thomas

·         Pierre Thomas

·         Mike Tolbert

·         LaDainian Tomlinson

·         Ryan Williams

Let’s kick things off here with the rookies. Ryan Williams and Daniel Thomas have the opportunity to make the biggest impact right away. I’m down on Beanie in Arizona (enter Williams) and Reggie Bush is just not a feature back. While Bush has value if used properly, expect Thomas to be the RB point scorer in Miami. Mark Ingram is a wild card. He’s going to get used, but how much will Pierre Thomas’ health factor into Ingram’s value? And what about Sproles? It might seem interesting that there are 3 Saints running backs in this group with fantasy potential. It could happen. Don’t jump on one of them too early, but monitor this situation throughout the year.

Felix Jones (right) has had his shot to prove he's a fantasy football factor. He has disappointed the Cowboy-loving PepeVibe since he entered the league three years ago. This season, he will have DeMarco Murray (left) nipping at his heels. Murray could be a deep sleeper worthy of a late draft flier. Tashard Choice is also in the mix. It will be interesting to see how Garrett manages his backfield.

Felix Jones is the starter in Dallas. That’s most of what he has going for him. He has yet to prove that he is a consistent fantasy option, and could lose carries to Tashard Choice and DeMarco Murray. The group of top flight backups in this group includes Ronnie Brown, Michael Bush, Rashad Jennings, and James Starks.  Their value is closely tied to the health of their respective starters. Lastly, I would avoid the San Diego situation altogether. Mathews was a bust last year, and there is no way that Tolbert repeats his performance from last year.