The greatest day of the year….almost. In terms of anticipation building, fantasy football draft day is rivaled only by Christmas Eve. The feeling of a “clean slate” from the previous year…the feeling of having your fate for the next 16 weeks at your fingertips. Nothing beats a fantasy football draft.
This league is a 12 team PPR league that has been in existence for over 5 years. The teams are a relatively close-knit group of guys who make each season an interesting one. In terms of competition, I’d put this league up there against any other. Each year, we leave the draft feeling that each of the 12 teams has a shot to win the title. I’m not sure you can say that about many leagues. The team names in this blog have been altered to protect the identity of everyone in the league. The Vibe won the league two years ago, while DeBow is the defending champion.
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| If you're wondering what the defending champ looks like...start by picturing this guy! |
Prior to the first round, team owners drew cards for draft position. There was a trade between the #2 and #5 positioned teams that was questionable at best. The teams (Mac Attack and Latwig) exchanged picks for the first 2 rounds, then reverted back to their original draft position for the remainder of the draft. It remains to be seen whether the trade made sense for Mac Attack (original #2), but my initial analysis is given below. I dissected the first few rounds with a more critical lens, while the last 9 rounds (where mostly backups are drafted) were analyzed as a larger chunk.
Rounds 1 & 2
Saint Nick – Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN
Latwig – Arian Foster, RB, HOU
Schmatty Fo’ – Ray Rice, RB, BAL
Cowlings – Jamaal Charles, RB, KC
Mac Attack – LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI
Señor Paisan – Chris Johnson, RB, TEN
DeBow – Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB
The Vibe – Andre Johnson, WR, HOU
Coach – Phillip Rivers, QB, SD
Elroy – Michael Vick, QB, PHI
Itchy – Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
Slopster – Frank Gore, RB, SF
Slopster – Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
Itchy – Darren McFadden, RB, OAK
Elroy – Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC
Coach – Matt Forte, RB, CHI
The Vibe – Roddy White, WR, ATL
DeBow – Michael Turner, RB, ATL
Señor Paisan – Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI
Mac Attack – Tom Brady, QB, NWE
Cowlings – Drew Brees, QB, NO
Schmatty Fo’ – Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG
Latwig – Miles Austin, WR, DAL
Saint Nick – Steven Jackson, RB, STL
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| Maybe you didn't have Rivers as a first round pick, but you can't say that he won't have a shot to finish as the top QB scorer. He has the ability to outpoint Rodgers, Brees, and Brady. |
The Vibe Commentary: In drawing the 8th pick, I knew I’d miss out on the top RB’s. I immediately began to think Aaron Rodgers or a top WR. I was confident in my evaluation of the mid-level RB’s, and felt I could wait a few rounds to take a RB without losing too much value. I decided I would be going WR-WR with my first 2 picks. Incidentally, I ended up with my top 2 rated WR’s, as Slopster jumped on Calvin Johnson before Roddy White went.
League Commentary: The first round unfolded very predictably, as the “top tier” running backs all went early. Señor Paisan answered the question of where Chris Johnson will end up. At #6 overall, he could prove a beast for the Paisans if his contract dispute gets settled. The back end teams began to jump on top guys at other positions, as non-RB’s went from picks 7 thru 10. The selection of Phillip Rivers at #9 left some heads scratching, but I think that ultimately he’ll put up numbers comparable to your top QB’s. Coach probably could’ve had him on the wrap around though. The Elroys were pumped about their selection of Vick at #10. Only time will tell. No player in the league is more of a risk/reward case than Vick.
Round 2 brought a run of uncertain running backs (D-Mac & MJD due to injury….Turner & Jackson due to potential declining production). Elroy went with MJD, giving him consecutive risk/reward picks.
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| Mac Attack said "No Thanks" to Arian Foster and opted for McCoy and Brady instead. Latwig took Foster and paired him with Miles Austin as a product of the first draft day trade in fantasy league history. |
Saint Nick paired top running back ADP with a solid, consistent Steven Jackson – another feature back. Could be the best 1-2 punch in the league. Schmatty Fo’ went with his heart, taking a Scarlet Knight and a G-man. Allegiances aside, both solid picks…An early look at the pre-draft trade after the first two rounds: Bowling guru Latwig trades LeSean McCoy & Tom Brady to futbol wunderkind Mac Attack for Arian Foster & Miles Austin. Advantage bowling.
Best Value Pick: Cowlings – Drew Brees (Round 2, 9th Pick)
Biggest Reach: Coach – Phillip Rivers (Round 1, 9th Pick)
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Rounds 3 & 4
Saint Nick – DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
MacAttack – Greg Jennings, WR, GB
Schmatty Fo’ – Vincent Jackson, WR, SD
Cowlings – Peyton Hillis, RB, CLE
Latwig – Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
Señor Paisan – Matt Schaub, QB, HOU
DeBow – Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
The Vibe – LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB
Coach – Mike Williams, WR, TB
Elroy – Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG
Itchy – Dez Bryant, WR, DAL
Slopster – Peyton Manning, QB, IND
Slopster – Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ
Itchy – Antonio Gates, TE, SD
Elroy – Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC
Coach – Jason Witten, TE, DAL
The Vibe – Tony Romo, QB, DAL
DeBow – Ryan Mathews, RB, SD
Señor Paisan – Felix Jones, RB, DAL
Latwig – Jermichael Finley, TE, GB
Cowlings – Steve Johnson, WR, BUF
Schmatty Fo’ – Jahvid Best, RB, DET
MacAttack – Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN
Saint Nick – Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL
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| This is what Steve Johnson looks like. Rose from obscurity last year to post one of the better seasons for a WR. Was he a one hit wonder? I'm glad I don't have to find out with him on my team. |
The Vibe Commentary: I thought it appropriate to grab a RB in Round 3, even though I was tempted to shore up my QB situation with Romo or Manning right there. I went with Blount (despite his lack of passing game versatility) because he is the unquestioned feature back in an offense that will be running a lot. I was really torn between him and Bradshaw, but I’m nervous with the way Brandon Jacobs is running right now. I think he’ll get even more touches in the Giants running game than he did last year. In Round 4, I was committing to either Romo or Witten. When Witten got taken by Coach right before my pick, it made the decision an easy one. I feel good about my draft at this point, as I think Romo has top 5 QB scoring potential.
League Commentary: As much as it pains me to say, I think Itchy reached with Dez in Round 3. He did pick Gates at an appropriate time (you have to almost evaluate Gates as another WR), but I’m not convinced yet on Dez. DeBow, who had drafted his first 3 guys over the phone, went with Ryan Mathews in Round 4. A questionable pick at best. Slopster followed up a smart pick (Manning) with a questionable one (Greene). Greene has a lot to prove this year. Coach decided to go with a WR in Round 3 instead of doubling up at RB, passing up the likes of Ahmad Bradshaw for Mike Williams of Tampa. We’ll see.
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| Jahvid Best has to prove he can make cuts like this without getting turf toe. There's no way he gets 20+ carries a game, but has increased value in this league because it is a PPR. |
“We’ll see” can be said about the last six guys taken in Round 4, as Felix Jones (inconsistent?), Jermichael Finley (injury?), Steve Johnson (one hit wonder?), Jahvid Best (turf toe?), Knowshon Moreno (injury?), and Anquan Boldin (diminishing skill?).
Best Value Pick: Elroy – Ahmad Bradshaw (Round 3, 10th Pick)
Biggest Reach: DeBow– Ryan Mathews (Round 4, 6th Pick)
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Rounds 5-8
Saint Nick – DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR
MacAttack – Dallas Clark, TE, IND
Schmatty Fo’ – Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
Cowlings – Vernon Davis, TE, SF
Latwig – Santonio Holmes, WR, NYJ
Señor Paisan – Brandon Lloyd, WR, DEN
DeBow – Marques Colston, WR, NO
The Vibe – Cedric Benson, RB, CIN
Coach – BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NWE
Elroy – Mark Ingram, RB, NO
Itchy – Brandon Marshall, WR, MIA
Slopster – Wes Welker, WR, NWE
Slopster – Beanie Wells, RB, ARI
Itchy – Reggie Bush, RB, MIA
Elroy – Percy Harvin, WR, MIN
Coach – Hines Ward, WR, PIT
The Vibe – Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA
DeBow – Owen Daniels, TE, HOU
Señor Paisan – Brandon Pettigrew, TE, DET
Latwig – Joseph Addai, RB, IND
Cowlings – Mike Sims-Walker, WR, STL
Schmatty Fo’ – Danny Amendola, WR, STL
MacAttack – Daniel Thomas, RB, MIA
Saint Nick – Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT
Saint Nick – Jimmy Graham, TE, NO
MacAttack – Sidney Rice, WR, SEA
Schmatty Fo’ – Eli Manning, QB, NYG
Cowlings – James Starks, RB, GB
Latwig –Matt Ryan, QB, ATL
Señor Paisan – Ryan Grant, RB, GB
DeBow – Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI
The Vibe – Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG
Coach – Pierre Thomas, RB, NO
Elroy – Mario Manningham, WR, NYG
Itchy – Chad Ochocinco, WR, NWE
Slopster – Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
Slopster – Tim Hightower, RB, WAS
Itchy – Plaxico Burress, WR, NYJ
Elroy – Zach Miller, TE, OAK
Coach – Donald Driver, WR, GB
The Vibe – Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR
DeBow – Tashard Choice, RB, DAL
Señor Paisan – Julio Jones, WR, ATL
Latwig – Mike Tolbert, RB, SD
Cowlings – Lance Moore, WR, NO
Schmatty Fo’ – Mike Thomas, WR, JAX
Mac Attack – A.J. Green, WR, CIN
Saint Nick – Steve Smith, WR, CAR
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| The last time Beanie Wells had a run of over 4 yards.... |
The Vibe Commentary: I took some heat here, but I could care less. As indicated earlier, I was confident with my mid-range RB evaluation. As such, I selected 4 consecutive RB’s from Rounds 5-8. Two feature backs (Benson & Lynch) and two timeshare guys with tremendous upside (Jacobs & Stewart). If two of these 4 pan out, I’ll be in good shape.
League Commentary: Collectively, the league had a strong Round 5 …DeAngelo Williams, Dallas Clark, Vernon Davis, Santonio Holmes, Marques Colston, Cedric Benson, Brandon Marshall. Some great value picks in there. That said, Round 6 was a disaster. The run of picks from R6, #4 to #7 (Ward, Lynch, Daniels, Pettigrew) leave a lot to be desired. I mean…Señor Paisan… Brandon Pettigrew in the 6th round? He may not even be the primary pass catcher on his own team (Tony Sheffler).
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| Senor Paisan invested a high pick in Pettigrew, who has been going undrafted in some leagues. Will it pay off? |
After a return to sanity (Latwig with Joseph Addai), the league resumed with a run of Sims-Walker, Amendola, and Daniel Thomas. I know people are high on Bradford, but back-to-back Rams WR’s in the SIXTH round of a fantasy draft? Cowlings’ Sims-Walker hasn’t been relevant in 2 years, and perhaps Schmatty Fo’ doesn’t realize that return stats won’t count for Amendola’s offensive scoring. His value is enhanced because it’s a PPR league….but Round 6? Saint Nick threw together a great 4 pick run, with consistent Big Ben and Welker mixed in with sleeper Jimmy Graham. Meanwhile, Coach assembled one of the great wideout tandems of 2004 with Hines Ward and Donald Driver. Last, but certainly not least, is DeBow’s puzzling “Choice” of the Cowboys backup RB in Round 8. Rumors out of Dallas have rookie DeMarco Murray hopping Choice on the depth chart. We will see. Either way, is there any question Choice would’ve been there in Round 14?
Best Value Pick: Slopster – Tim Hightower (Round 8, 1st Pick)
Biggest Reach: DeBow– Tashard Choice (Round 8, 6th Pick)
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Rounds 9-17 Summary
Best Value Picks
Round 9, Pick 1 Saint Nick – Austin Collie, WR, IND
Round 10, Pick 3 Elroy – Josh Freeman, QB, TB
Round 11, Pick 8 The Vibe – Kellen Winslow, TE, TB
Round 12, Pick 9 Cowlings – Darren Sproles, RB, NO
Round 13, Pick 2 Mac Attack – Greg Olsen, TE, CAR
Round 14, Pick 1 Slopster – Jordy Nelson, WR, GB
Round 15, Pick 3 Schmatty Fo’ – Jason Snelling, RB, ATL
Round 16, Pick 3 Elroy – Eric Decker, WR, DEN
Round 17, Pick 12 Cowlings – Riley Cooper, WR, PHI
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| Eric Decker had injury problems at Minnesota, but possesses first round talent. You may not know him now, but you will know him by Week 5. Elroy uses an expendable late round pick to snag Decker. |
Can we be honest here? If you’re a non-kicker or defense drafted in rounds 16-17, you have an excellent shot at being a good “value pick.” I like Schmatty Fo’s pick of Snelling in the 15th with Michael Turner looking like a late-career Jerome Bettis. Jacquizz Rogers is there as well, but it’ll be Snelling’s show if/when Turner goes down. Cowlings grabs the Reggie Bush heir apparent in New Orleans in Sproles, who is at worst a great bye week fill-in. Mac Attack stole one of the sleeper tight ends in Olsen (I had rated him higher than Pettigrew, who was taken in the 6th). Josh Freeman was a top 10 quarterback last year, and has been getting dogged out this year in drafts. An excellent pick for Elroy….Freeman will be starting by Week 5 when Vick gets hurt.
Biggest Reaches
Round 9, Pick 11 Itchy – Roy Helu, RB, WAS
Round 10, Pick 8 Latwig – Delone Carter, RB, IND
Round 11, Pick 2 Mac Attack – Johnny Knox, WR, CHI
Round 12, Pick 10 Schmatty Fo’ – Eddie Royal, WR, DEN
Round 13, Pick 1 Coach – Nate Kaeding, K, SD
Round 14, Pick 5 The Vibe – Jacob Tamme, TE, IND
Round 15, Pick 1 Saint Nick – Kendall Hunter, RB, SF
Round 16, Pick 5 The Vibe – Rams D/ST
Round 17, Pick 7 DeBow – Rex Grossman, QB, WAS
Let’s start with the last pick listed there. You read that correctly. Not only did DeBow draft a Redskins quarterback….he drafted the Redskins backup quarterback. I know it’s your last pick, but let’s not throw it away completely. I would have taken any of the remaining kickers, or defenses, ahead of Rex Grossman. But then again, this guy did win the league last year.
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| Is the defending champ just messing with us by drafting Redskins backup Grossman (left) over starter Beck (right)? Who knows, but I'm nominating Rex as the "Most Droppable Player" coming out of the draft. |
Coach wins the award for being the first to jump on a kicker, grabbing Kaeding in the 13th. While solid, you’ll never get me to subscribe to taking a kicker prior to the last 2 rounds. He also nabbed Pittsburgh D/ST in Round 12, becoming the first to choose a defense. Saint Nick reached deep into the sleeper pool with Kendall Hunter in Round 15, but the fact of the matter is it looks like him and Dixon will split duties in the event of a Gore injury.
For Itchy and Latwig, snatching rookie RB’s with upside was not a bad thought, but they may have jumped the gun a little early. Helu is currently 3rd on the depth chart and exists in the Mike Shanahan running back crapshoot. Delone Carter is also 3rd (at best) on the depth chart, and will need to work his way up. I think both could have been had about 3-4 rounds later.
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| "Hmmm...how can I split the touches 3 ways?" Shanahan has been a running back value's worst nightmare over the last 10 years. With Torain, Hightower, and Helu, the pieces are in place for him to screw with us all again. |
In the interest of being objective, I added The Vibe twice to the “reach” list. I’m not trying to sandbag, as I think most would say each of those picks is questionable. Tamme is a reach for me, but just have a hunch it may work out. Low risk/high upside. Rams D/ST is more about Spagnuolo and their presence in the NFC West than their talent. Expect The Vibe to play matchups for most of the year.
The Vibe’s Picks (9-17): Pierre Garcon, Javon Ringer, Kellen Winslow, Jerome Harrison, Mike Williams (SEA), Jacob Tamme, Kyle Orton, Rams D/ST, Nick Folk
The Vibe Commentary: I grabbed a couple of backups (Ringer and Harrison) who have potential to contribute this year. Ringer has more immediate value, as he’ll be the guy if Chris Johnson does not sign to start the year. I like Orton and Williams as backups at their respective positions for me, and my selections of Winslow, Tamme, and the Rams are explained above.
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LEAGUE POWER RANKINGS
Based on ESPN season point projections (projected starting players only)
1. Mac Attack 1792.5
2. Señor Paisan 1762.0
3. Latwig 1755.0
4. Saint Nick 1740.0
5. DeBow 1732.1
6. Schmatty Fo’ 1727.0
7. Elroy 1726.0
8. Cowlings 1716.0
9. The Vibe 1694.0
10. Coach 1678.5
11. Itchy 1675.5
12. Slopster 1602.0
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