I always thought that straight draft predictions were nearly destined to fail from the start, because there is almost ALWAYS a trade in the first round. One trade can change the whole complexion of the draft. For example, a rumor came out today that the Redskins were trying to trade up to #2 to select Blaine Gabbert. Does that guarantee Patrick Peterson to the Cardinals at #5? Does that mean Jake Locker (the consensus #3 QB) gets drafted higher? A trade like this could change the entire landscape of the draft. Shanahan has always been one to fall in love with strong-armed passers, and Gabbert fits the mold.
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| Like I said, Shanahan has ALWAYS loved strong-armed passers....Hey, wait just a minute... |
With the unpredictability of the first round and my limited knowledge of 32 teams’ needs, I will not do a team-by-team prediction. Rather, I will rant about five topics that I think are interesting going into the draft, write a few picture captions, and then try to make picks for some of the local teams (and teams who are near and dear to certain blog readers).
1. Will Cam Newton be successful as a pro?
I do not think that Cam Newton is a good character guy. He got booted out of Florida, and definitely was in on the whole recruiting scandal with his father. His father took the hit for him in order to protect his son’s season with Auburn (and Auburn’s team, for that matter).
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| Before Auburn made him the highest paid free agent in the SEC, he was booted out of the traditionally lenient Florda program for an academic cheating scandal (and allegedly stealing a laptop). |
That being said, he’s got two things going for him.
#1 – He’s a physical freak of nature. He is 6’5 and 248lbs. He’s basically as big as Daunte Culpepper, with much more mobility. He ran a 4.6 in the 40 at the NFL combine, but is said to have run a 4.42. Probably was wind-aided. He also has significant arm strength. The big question is – Will he be able to make good decisions on the field?
#2 – He’s got a major chip on his shoulder and seems like the type of guy who’s going to use that to fuel his work ethic. The opposite of this, of course, is former top pick JaMarcus Russell, who had a major chip on his shoulder and used it to fuel a different kind of appetite in his belly.
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| Poor JaMarcus is a constant PepeVibe target. He had a chip on his shoulder but chose to take the money and get fat and happy. This is how bad it is....when you start typing "JaMarcus Russell" into the Google images search bar, the second quick search that pops up as you get to the end is "JaMarcus Russell fat" |
I think he’s going to be pretty good. He’s going into a pretty good situation in Carolina where they can run the ball (when healthy). As poorly as they played last year, they are not far off from being competitive. Having a gamer with some physical tools under center can go a long way towards achieving that.
THE VERDICT = QB’s the Panthers to NFC Playoffs by Year Three
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| You don't have to be a good guy to have success in the NFL, and Newton will be a playoff QB in Carolina before all is said and done. |
2. Where will Patrick Peterson end up?
People are in love with Peterson. It is said that some teams have him ATOP their draft boards. Most mock drafts have him going as high as #3 to Buffalo, while few having him dropping past Arizona at #5. He’s thought to be among the closest things to a “lock” in this draft, in terms of being an impact player.
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| Patrick Peterson (#7) intercepting a pass in front of another first round pick, AJ Green of Georgia. Patty Pete is said to be a pro-ready cornerback who will be able to immediately shore up the secondary of whichever team he goes to. |
If the draft stays as is, the Cardinals could really have the ability to impact the rest of the Top 15. If they take Gabbert, then there could be teams trying like crazy to trade with Cleveland to take Peterson at 6. If they take Peterson, then there is less of a frenzy, and Prince Amakumamamamamama of Nebraska becomes the CB consolation prize. More importantly, the question becomes….where does Gabbert fall to? Ahhh, sounds like a whole other topic worthy of ranting on.
THE VERDICT = Peterson to the Cardinals at #5
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| Where Peterson ends up will be a stiuation that bears watching. His final landing spot could set off a chain reaction of moves for many of the teams looking at Gabbert and for a CB. |
3. Blaine Gabbert is the QB of the future for…
In looking at the current Top 10, there are four teams who could definitely be in the market for a QB: Buffalo, Arizona, SF, and Washington. Carolina excluded, of course, because it’s pretty widely accepted that if they take a QB, it’s Newton. I have a feeling that Tennessee will take a QB at some point in this draft, but it might not be in Round One. They could be lining up Mallet in the 2nd round.
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| You mean Max Hall isn't the answer in Arizona? |
Gabbert has all the physical tools (just shy of 6’5….235lbs), but a criticism is that he did not play in a pro-style offense at Missouri. He took a lot of snaps out of shotgun (as Jon Gruden pointed out in his self-proclaimed "QB Camp" in ESPN).
*Sidebar….I can’t stand those Gruden pieces. I saw him in this episode nearly berate Gabbert for not getting to the handoff spot as quickly as Peyton Manning. The pomposity on Gruden’s part is too much for me. And no, I did not use Shift + F7 for “pomposity”…
This will be one of the most interesting things to watch in Round One….
THE VERDICT = Gabbert to the 49ers at #7
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| Not many know that this STALLION above (Gabbert) actually runs as fast a 40-yard dash as Cam Newton. An athlete who will be able to grow under Jim Harbaugh in San Francisco. |
4. Odds the Patriots make both of their first round picks…
The Pats have the luxury of having two first round picks…..one in the middle of the round (#17) and one late in the round (#28). On top of that, they possess only 5 total picks for the entire draft. Knowing how the Patriots traditionally mini-rebuild through the draft, I don’t know if the Pats will sit with only 5 picks. I also think they need some help in spots, especially on defense and WR. I forsee one of two scenarios:
1) The Pats package both 1st round picks to move up into the Top 5 to grab a player like Patrick Peterson.
2) The Pats trade away one – or both – of their picks to move back and add to the overall number of picks.
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| Billy will be wearing his Thursday night best as the Pats will likely wheel and deal for either a defensive stud like Patty Pete, or for some additional picks. |
I see scenario 2 being more likely, I think that Billy Boy wants to have at least 7+ picks coming out of this draft….ESPECIALLY since it looks like teams will not be able to sign undrafted free agents right away after the draft because of the lockout.
THE VERDICT: Pats trade their #17 pick for two later picks, plus a pick in the 2012 draft.
| The Pats never need to have high draft picks to grab talented players. Case in point, Aaron Hernandez (above) was taken in the 4th round of last year's draft and ended up being a breakout tight end. |
5. Former Heisman Trophy-winning RB Mark Ingram….Where will he go, and how good will he be?
Ingram is going anywhere from mid-first round to somewhere in the second round. I can’t help but think that if he had been able to come out last year after his Heisman, he would’ve been a Top 10 pick (I mean, CJ Spiller was the #9 pick…and he’s the same type of runner). Suffice it to say, Ingram is not a fan of the "3 years in college" NFL draft rule. I think that despite the durability concerns, and concerns about his ability to handle 20 carries a game, Ingram will be a useful player in 2011 (assuming there is a season).
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| Dude! You could've gone Top 10 last year! Tough luck, especially if you fall out of the first round! |
I feel confident in saying that he will be a productive running back. Will he end up being a dominant feature back like ADP, Gore, Chris Johnson, MJD, etc? I don’t think so (just yet), but I like him to get 15-20 touches per game wherever he goes. The Dolphins would make sense at #15, but who knows if they’ll look to address RB in the first round (lord knows, they need it to be addressed). After the Fins, the next logical suitors are the Pats at 28 and the Pack at 32. It will be interesting to see where he goes.
THE VERDICT: Pats use their #28 pick on Mark Ingram
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| So you mean to tell me that the Fins will pass on Ingram and roll yet AGAIN with Ronnie Brown?!?!?! Yeish.... |
LOCAL DRAFT PICKS
New York Jets(#30) Justin Houston, LB, Georgia
New York “Little Sisters”(#19) Nate Solder, OL, Colorado
Philadelphia Eagles(#23) Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
SPECIAL BLOG FANS TEAMS
Buffalo Bills(#3) Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M
Miami Dolphins(#15) Mike Pouncey, OL, Florida
Dallas Cowboys(#9) Tyron Smith, OL, USC
San Francisco 49ers(#7) Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
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