Pansy Scheme

2012 New York Mets

SEASON PREVIEW

"But they moved the fences in" said a Mets fan who I spoke with about this season, "Jason Bay and David Wright will have more jacks." That's cute. It's important to remember that they won't be moving the fences back out when the Mets are playing the field. As these two Mets thumpers will be trying to get their HR totals above 20, the opposing teams will be taking full advantage of the hitter-friendly modification to the ballpark. 

On second thought, can we just have the grounds crew take down the fence after the bottom half? (Jim Mancari)

 The team is clearly in a rebuilding phase. Likely, they are at least two carefully planned years away from returning to relevance in the NL East. And I feel that's being pretty generous. They are a team of "IF's."  

If David Wright and Jason Bay return to form. 

If Johan Santana and Ike Davis stay healthy.

If Lucas Duda, Daniel Murphy, and Dillon Gee build on last year.

If Pelfrey, Niese, and Dickey step up and have career years they've proven capable of in the past.

And the list could go on and on. It's just too many things that need to break right. They have the right manager in place to oversee these young guys, but they are several key pieces away from being competitive. A successful year for the Mets would be to see growth from their young guys, along with sense and brains from their front office.

OFFENSE

Projected Lineup
1. Andres Torres CF
2. Daniel Murphy 2B
3. Jason Bay LF
4. Ike Davis 1B
5. David Wright 3B
6. Lucas Duda RF
7. Josh Thole C
8. Ruben Tejada SS

Get Excited About ....

These guys play hard for Terry Collins, and a few of them enjoyed promising "jumpstart" campaigns last year. Lucas Duda hit .292 with 10 HR and 50 RBI in just over half a season, giving fans promise that he will develop into a run producer. Daniel Murphy has proven he can hit at the big league level (.320, 6, 49 last year) and looks to make his mark as the everyday second baseman.

Don't get excited about his defense though. We didn't see this in the Tom Emanski instructional video. (Jeff Roberson/AP)

Be Unsure About...

Josh Thole showed he could develop into a serviceable big league backstop, but the Mets really need him to take a step forward this year to sell fans that he's the answer behind the plate. Ruben Tejada faces a tall task in replacing the Mets most popular player, but is said to be among the slickest-fielding young shortstops in baseball. Offensively, he's a work in progress, but you can get by with your shortstop hitting .260 if he's saving runs on defense. Tejada hit .284 last year in 328 at-bats, but the Mets would be happy with .260 and gold glove caliber defense. We will see. Andres Torres is likely going to be shopped for prospects as soon as his stock rises. There are always plenty of teams looking for a speedy 4th outfielder come trade deadline.

Thole shows some flashes of brilliance at the plate but is very streaky. A consistent offensive season would cement him as a nice complimentary piece that the Mets can use in their rebuilding. (AP Images)

Throw Up About...

Jason Bay is an absolute disaster. He is one of the main reasons the Mets are in their current situation. Think about this...the Mets had a choice in the 2009-10 winter to go after Matt Holliday or Jason Bay. They pursued Bay as their #1 guy. How did that work out?
 

Jason Bay 2010  - .259, 6HR, 47RBI 2011  -  .245, 12HR, 57RBI

Matt Holliday 2010  -  .312 28HR, 103RBI 2011  -  .296, 22HR, 75RBI (...oh, and a World Series title)

In case you're wondering, this is not a Monday Morning QB job. I killed the Mets for going after Bay at the time. They had some fly ball formula that showed that Bay would've had more home runs at CitiField. Nice formula.

Ohhh...THAT'S who came up with the Jason Bay fly ball formula (see left).

David Wright is officially in career decline and does not look to be pulling himself out of it any time soon. His plate discipline is deteriorating, his power numbers are down, and he has no one in this lineup to protect him. Expect big strikeout numbers again as he gets impatient with the junk he is given. One more season like last (.254, 14, 61) and he can take a seat on Jason Bay's lap in the disappointment chair.

Ike Davis could really be in any of these three categories. I feel bad for the poor guy, but he just can't get out of his own way. It won't be his performance that puts him in this category, but his inability to stay healthy. Mets fans should expect another up-and-down season for Davis in which he gives them a spark, but misses significant time along the way.

PITCHING

Projected Rotation
1. Johan Santana
2. Mike Pelfrey
3. Jonathan Niese
4. R.A. Dickey
5. Dillon Gee

Projected Bullpen
Pedro Beato
Bobby Parnell
Manny Acosta
Ramon Ramirez
Jon Rauch (setup)
Frank Francisco (closer)

Get Excited About...

If there is any place where they have some promise, it is their bullpen. Though they lack a true "closer," their back four of Acosta, Ramirez, Rauch, and Francisco is solid. If they had a top closer in here we'd be calling them among the best bullpen in baseball. As it stands, they are still solid.

Please don't tell Frankie I said he's not a true closer.

Be Unsure About...

Obviously, Johan Santana. What will you get from him? I sure don't know the answer to that. My gut feeling is that when he is healthy, he will give you 6 solid innings. Cautious optimism should be tied to Jonathan Niese and Dillon Gee as well, as their continued development could leave the Mets one legitimate arm away from a solid 2013 rotation. The jury is still out on Gee. I can definitely see a sophomore slump as a possibility...he's not going to sneak up on anyone this year.

Throw Up About...

Mike Pelfrey and Bobby Parnell. Each once considered to be a highly touted Mets prospect, both have one foot out the door going into this year. Parnell has done far less in his career than Pelfrey and still is considered to be relatively young. Pelfrey has shown dominance (first 10 starts of 2010) which makes his situation a more urgent one. He is one more down year away from being a staple in the Kansas City Royals rotation.

Ironic? The stereotypical "ball of nerves," Big Pelf has left many Mets fans with their head buried in a bucket over the last year and a half. His placement in the "make you vomit" section is warranted. (AP Images)

FINAL OUTLOOK

The team plays hard all year. A few of the young guys prove they should stick around, while some others prove to be expendable. They'll be pesky and hang around (within 8 games of first) until the All-Star break, but ultimately they will fade in the second half. They get inconsistent #4/5 starter-type production out of Pelf, Niese, Dickey, and Gee, which will not be enough to make a run at a .500 record.

RECORD: 77-85 (5th in a very competitive NL East)