Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Detooled and Reloaded

2012 New York Yankees
SEASON PREVIEW

Last year's tool, AJ Burnett. (Calabrese/AP)
Last season's end left a bitter taste in the mouth of those in the Bronx. It was a season made memorable by the fantastic (Curtis Granderson, Robbie Cano, CC Sabathia, David Robertson, Mariano Rivera), the disappointing (AJ Burnett, Alex Rodriguez, Phil Hughes), and the controversial (Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada). At season's end the starting rotation was the number one area needing attention.

The fact of the matter is that with Andy Pettitte gone, Burnett was supposed to step up as a solid #2 and Hughes the #3. While Hughes battled injury all season, Burnett just proved to be more harm than help most of the year. His second consecutive Coors Field-like ERA punched his ticket out of town.

For Yankee fans, AJ Burnett has never looked so good. Wearing another team's jersey. What is that a roll of silver dollars in his back pocket?!?! (Brad Barr/US Presswire)
 Don't get me wrong. Ivan Nova was an exciting (apologies to Tim Tebow) surprise. Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon gave the team much more than could have been expected. It just wasn't supposed to be like this. The old baseball saying goes: "You can never have enough pitching."

The 2011 Yankees were evidence of that.

This year brings hope as aggressive, yet adulterous, general manager Brian Cashman worked fervently to address the starting rotation. Here's how:

1) Burnett and Colon OUT
2) Garcia signed a one year deal to pitch in more of a versatility role (a la Ramiro Mendoza)
3) Michael Pineda added via trade with Seattle
4) Hiroki Kuroda added via free agency.
5) Andy Pettitte un-retired to add depth

I'm really not sure what to make of Andy Pettitte coming back. I mean I will always love seeing him don the pinstripes. I just think it will be interesting if CC, Kuroda, Nova, Pineda, and Hughes are all pitching well come May. Do they go with a 6-man rotation? I hope not. Do they put Pettitte in the bullpen? I don't believe that's why he signed. Do they take one of the effective guys out of the rotation? That would suck as they are all young, developing starters. It's a situation that bears careful watching.

The last time Andy Pettitte threw off the Yankee stadium mound... Ceremonial first pitch on October 2nd...caught by Jorge Posada. Perhaps this year the roles in that battery will be reversed.
Overall, the Yankees will have another solid, 90+ win season this year. They will be a playoff team and will be fighting for their lives in October against an improved American League. Tampa Bay is their biggest threat in the AL East, and their 1-2-3 punch of Shields, Price, and Hellickson will be a force to be reckoned with. You can certainly see these two teams doing battle down the stretch this year.

OFFENSE

Projected Lineup
1. Derek Jeter SS
2. Curtis Granderson CF
3. Robinson Cano 2B
4. Alex Rodriguez 3B
5. Mark Teixeira 1B
6. Nick Swisher RF
7. Russell Martin C
8. Raul Ibanez / Andruw Jones DH
9. Brett Gardner LF

Why You Should PANIC...

I am not sure what the Yankees expect from the Raul Ibanez/Andruw Jones platoon, but that is the obvious weak spot in this lineup as it stands. Jones will play against lefties (2011 vs. LHP - .286, 8HR, 25RBI) and Ibanez will play against righties (2011 vs. RHP - .256, 16HR, 60RBI).

On paper that's a DH who had a stat line of .263, 24HR, 85RBI, which isn't bad. I just don't see this being a spot where they will be able to count on consistent production. I doubt it will end up as a perfect platoon. Likely they will use Eric Chavez, Eduardo Nunez, and even one of these two to spell some of their aging position players. Expect A-Rod, Tex, and even Jeter to grab some at-bats at DH this season.

No all-star caliber DH? The sky is falling!

Why You Should Feel Like You're Going to Win the World Series... 

Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson give you no reason to think they won't continue their torrid production from last season. Each was an MVP candidate last year, and expect each to have a solid year in 2012. Russell Martin fits perfectly as a role player in this lineup, and his defense was stellar last year.

Teixeira and Alex will put up run-producing numbers (I think Alex still has a lot of production left). Neither will be MVP-caliber, but each will contribute mightily to one of the best offenses in the AL. Derek Jeter bounced back to hit .297 last year, but only scored 84 runs. He'll be looking to continue proving his haters wrong.

His swag is so fresh that he kicked Minka to the curb. You wanna hate? He's beating you at life. (Peeping Tom/Some Blog) 
PITCHING

 Projected Rotation
1. C.C. Sabathia
2. Hiroki Kuroda
3. Ivan Nova
4. Michael Pineda
5. Phil Hughes
Others Receiving Votes: Freddy Garcia, Andy Pettitte

Projected Bullpen
Cory Wade
Boone Logan
Rafael Soriano
David Robertson (setup)
Mariano Rivera (closer)

Why You Should PANIC...

Another year of Boone Logan? Awesome. Coupled with Rafael Soriano, this is one of the more shaky 6th-7th inning pairs in baseball. Soriano came to the Yankees to boost his future stock as a closer, and ended up turning into a poor man's Tom Gordon. He needs a big rebound year, both for the Yankees and for himself. I know its frustrating, but Robertson can't pitch every day. They will need some of these other guys to step up and get some outs.

Why You Should Feel Like You're Going to Win the World Series...

While lacking the star-studded 1-2-3 punch that a team like Philadelphia has, the Yanks have a tremendous amount of depth in their starting arms now, and might have the best collective 1-5 in the AL.

C.C. Sabathia is a horse and a legitimate #1 starter - Cap'n Crunch or not. Hiroki Kuroda gives them a legitimate #2, as he has done nothing but improve since he came over from Japan. He is 37, but is coming off back-to-back seasons with a sub-3.40 ERA and around 200 innings. He must be thrilled that he isn't stuck in run-support purgatory anymore. The 3rd-5th spots are less proven, but the odds are good. Pineda and Nova were ROY candidates last year, and Hughes was an all-star two years ago. Even if just 2 of those 3 have a solid year, the Yanks rotation will be formidable. 

Kuroda is being counted on as a bona fide #2 in this rotation. He could be the biggest key to the Yankees success this year.
Mariano Rivera is the greatest closer of all-time and has done nothing to show that we should not expect vintage Mo' this year. Robertson gives them a solid, dominant strikeout pitcher to set Rivera up. You may not know this, but Robertson finished 10th in AL Cy Young voting last year. Remarkable for a relief pitcher on any team. Even more remarkable for a relief pitcher on Mariano Rivera's team.

FINAL OUTLOOK

The Yankees are built, if nothing else, for regular season success. They have a lineup with few weak spots and a rotation that is deep from 1-5. They have the best setup-closer tandem in baseball. As is usually the case in Yankee land, the question is can they succeed in the postseason? They've seen plenty of Yankee teams hum right along in the regular season, only to run into a swift playoff exit. The answer to this question? You will have to read tomorrow's MLB preview.

RECORD: 96-66 (1st in the AL East)

P.S.
It's worth noting that Joba Chamberlain and his injury were not mentioned at all in this blog, thus cementing his status as irrelevant in Yankee-land. 

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