Opening Day

"The Greatest Sports Day of the Year"

Although sometimes plagued by winter-like weather, nothing beats a home opener at Yankee Stadium.

MLB Opening Day is widely considered the “Greatest Sports Day of the Year” by many. There is no opening to a season quite like baseball season. Opening Day is a day in which every team believes it has a shot to make the playoffs. Hopes are high, even for teams who are division “underdogs” going in. These teams are given hope by teams like the 2010 San Diego Padres and the 2010 Cincinnati Reds, both of whom were long shots to win their respective divisions. The Reds in fact won their division, while the Pads led the NL West most of the way before bowing out to the World Series Champion Giants. Case in point: raise your hand if you picked the Giants over the Rangers in the World Series prior to 2010.... 

Nobody picked this hippie to lead the Giants to a World Championship last year.

These are the things that make Opening Day so great. Maybe the Orioles will be this year’s Rangers. Or the Brewers this year’s Reds. Or the Diamondbacks this year’s Padres. Hopes are high all across the country, and there is no high loss total to deter that right now. The start of baseball season each year marks the beginning of Spring weather (OK, don’t look outside right now) and the beginning of thoughts of summer.

Congratulations everyone. You have made it through the lull between football season and baseball season. Special thanks to March Madness for helping to bridge the gap.

To kick off my first baseball season as a blogger, I’d like to make a list of things that I think will happen this year. I was going to call them “Bold Predictions”, but that’s too ESPN-y. So, this is what I came up with… (special thanks to Shift + F7)

Vociferous Vibes

1.  The Kansas City Royals will lose 110 games.

Have you seen their lineup? They have Aviles, Alex Gordon (who, once heralded as the top prospect in baseball, is 7/8ths of the way to being an epic bust). Grienke’s gone, DeJesus is gone, and they are running out there a team of absolute unknowns. No, they will NOT be this year’s San Diego Padres. Explain to me how they are going to win games. Then, explain to me how they are going to draw fans.

In Aviles we trust? Yeish!

2.  The Baltimore Orioles will win 82+ games.

That’s right, for the first time since 1997, the Orioles will finish above .500. They don’t have the pitching to win the division, or even the Wild Card, but I think they have a shot to leapfrog Tampa Bay and Toronto in the AL East and finish 3^rd.

Vlad and the O's are going to be looking to stir the AL East pot some this year.

3. The Atlanta Braves will win the NL East, but the Philadelphia Phillies will win the NL pennant.

Atlanta has a very solid team. A better 162-game team (top-to-bottom) than any other team in that division. However, any team in the NL will have a hard time getting past the Phillies starters. Teams will not even be able to say “That’s OK, we’ll just be patient and wait until we get a shot at their bullpen.” Three of these guys (Halladay, Lee, and Oswalt) are good for 8-9 innings every start. Good luck beating the Phightin’ Phils in a series.

Lee, Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels in a playoff series with no DH? Good luck NL.

4. The New York Yankees will acquire Felix Hernandez.

It’s going to get done. The Mariners still covet a catching prospect (as they did last year in Cliff Lee talks), and the Yanks are rich there. The teams will hammer out a pre-deadline deal with the Yanks sending 4 prospects to Seattle (See ya’, Montero).

By mid-season we'll be hearing ..."Ohhh....oh my goodness gracious Jawhn"...."You said it Suzyn...it's another silenced bat, by Felix the Cat!" (FYI, I'm claiming ownership of that if he ever uses it ... google "Felix the Cat" and you'll appreciate the phrase)

5. Seattle’s Justin Smoak (the centerpiece of the Cliff Lee-to-Texas deal) will hit 25+ HRs this year.

Smoak was a minor disappointment as a rookie in Texas last year (.209, 8HR, 34RBI), before being traded and becoming a minor disappointment in Seatlle (.239, 5HR, 14RBI). Smoak has power and is considered to be a potential 35+HR player. He’ll make his move this year.

Two years from now, the M's will look like geniuses for acquiring one of the most prolific power-hitting prospects in baseball during a losing season, for a pitcher who wasn't going to stay in Seattle. Smoak is on my radar and he should be on yours.

6. Curtis Granderson will hit 35+HRs this year.

You read that right. He’s going deep 35 times. He dropped 30 in Comerica in 2009, and Yankee Stadium is tailor-made for his left-handed power swing. He got off to a good start yesterday, hitting a HR off a LEFTY.

Yup. 35 times you will see this.

7. The New York Mets will trade Jose Reyes AND Carlos Beltran.

The Mets are making a push to start anew, and Reyes’ antics are growing old with a lot of people. Alderson and Collins are not the “gangsta” that Jerry Manuel was, so he no longer has much of an audience. He’ll get hurt at some point which may hurt his trade value, but the Mets better unload him. They’d be stupid to give him a long term contract, especially since they are scarred by the frequent injuries of high-priced free agents. Beltran's time in New York is up, he's not re-signing with them, and they aren't going to contend. Might as well get what they can for him while they can.

It's gettin' old guys, especially when wins aren't being delivered. See ya guys!

8. The Boston Red Sox will have the highest starting rotation ERA in the AL East.

The Sawx have Lester and Buchholz which will keep it down, but Lackey, Beckett, and Daisuke have the potential to all post ERA’s north of 4.50. The Sox will still win plenty of games and grab the AL Wild Card, but they will do it behind Pedroia, Youk, Crawford, and “Yo’ Adrian”…

Wearing a red glove? It's got "tool" written all over it. Especially when you can't find the strike zone. Especially when they paid over $100 million for you. The last Red Sox pitcher to wear a red glove "called the Yankees his daddy."

9. The Boston Red Sox will have the lowest bullpen ERA in the MLB.

The Yanks and Sox likely have the best 2 bullpens in baseball. Both have current/former All-Star closers in their 8^th and 9^th inning roles. Just think the Sox are a bit deeper with Papelbon, Jenks, Bard, and Wakefield as the long man versus Rivera, Soriano, Joba, and Colon.   

Let's be honest, Bobby Jenks is a fat mess. But he has been a dominant closer and will be an above-average 7th/8th inning guy.  

10. Adam Dunn will lead the AL in HR’s, and the White Sox will win the AL Central.

The Sox have a formidable power lineup with Quentin, Konerko, and Dunn. They have some young arms (especially in their bullpen) that are unproven, but they can navigate a division riddled with inconsistent teams. Expect the Twins to finish a close 2^nd, with the Tigers finishing 3^rd, approximately 10 games back.

"Adam Dunn.....hit the F*&$% ball into the stands...I'm not F*&%$ joking....You cross me, I ship your F%&*# ass back to Washington" I think Dunn will oblige. Possibly to the tune of 50+ dingers.

Sweet 16 Picks!

OK Folks. Back to the NCAA Tournament blogs. Before I get into my picks for the Sweet 16, we'll recap how I made out on Sunday. It would have been my worst round yet, had it not been for my Marquette pick. Special thanks to Purdue and Notre Dame for not showing up to play.

RECAP OF SUNDAY'S PICKS

#2 North Carolina over #7 Washington

#1 Duke over #8 Michigan

#1 Ohio State over #8 George Mason

#4 Texas over #5 Arizona

#3 Purdue over #11 Virginia Commonwealth

#11 Marquette over #3 Syracuse

#1 Kansas over #9 Illinois 

#2 Notre Dame over #10 Florida State  

PepeVibe's Overall Record: (36-12)

Now, on to Thursday and Friday games. Because there are only four games each day, I'm only giving you one blog for both days. I mean, who the hell wants to write up a long blog on a Friday (tomorrow). I have bigger plans, like visiting the kegerator and playing Madden. I'll re-blog again on Saturday morning with my picks for the Elite Eight. Hard to believe that after this weekend, we'll be down to our Final Four. Enjoy the games!

SWEET 16 PICKS (Thursday & Friday)

#3 UConn over #2 San Diego State

#2 Florida over #3 BYU

#1 Duke over #5 Arizona

#8 Butler over #4 Wisconsin

"Upsets" are highlighted. I put that in quotes because I'm sure that many people (perhaps a majority) are also picking UConn to beat SDSU. UConn is hot, and the Aztecs were pushed to the brink by Temple in the last round. I picked Butler in my bracket to advance to the Elite Eight, and I'm going to continue to ride the "I told you so" train. There will be schools (i.e. Tennessee) beating down Brad Stevens' door at the end of this season. 

In case you haven't paid any attention, this young buck to the far left is the Head Coach of Butler. His stock will be off the charts this offseason, coming off back-to-back deep tournament runs.

#2 North Carolina over #11 Marquette

#1 Kansas over #12 Richmond (hopefully by less than 10 points!)

#1 Ohio State over #4 Kentucky 

#11 Virginia Commonwealth over #10 Florida State 

Sorry upset fans. Not much to get excited about here. I'll be rooting hard for Marquette & Richmond on Friday night, but I don't know if either has enough to win. Richmond is my Capture Pool team (as you know), so I just need them to lose close in order to capture Kansas. Ohio State looks as though they are on another level than Kentucky. VCU-FSU is interesting in that it guarantees a double-digit seed will be in the Elite Eight. I feel as though Virginia Commonwealth has a bigger chip on their shoulder than does FSU, due to pre-tourney analysts saying they should not have been selected. They also have the underdog mid-major thing going on. 

"Show us some respect or I will ram you with my sweet hat" VCU is kicking ass and taking names. Let's see if they are the Cinderella that will advance from their game with #10 seed Florida State.

There Will Be An Answer, Ollie P...

"For though they may be parted there is
Still a chance that they will see...
There will be an answer, Ollie P."

What has the Mets fan had to cheer about over the last two years? They have watched as an NLCS Game 7 loss laid the foundation for two consecutive divisional collapses, followed by two years of relative ineptitude. By relative, of course, I mean relative to the rest of the NL East besides the Washington Nationals. They have brought in stars, and have watched as these legitimate superstars physically break down on their watch (Delgado, Martinez, Santana, Reyes, Beltran to name a few).

They have sat through Willie Randolph losing the team’s respect, through Jerry Manuel not being able to put a sentence together, through Tony Bernazard taking his shirt off and challenging the team to a fight, to Omar Minaya stammering in his defense as he “scapegoated” Adam Rubin for the Mets problems.  

"That's not....what I'm saying is...I'm saying that...what I'm saying is..."

Now, the Mets fan can finally get behind something that is worth cheering for. Sandy Alderson and Terry Collins have done what most Mets fans have craved for many years. Is there a Mets fan out there who didn’t, upon buying MLB 11 The Show, immediately cut Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo? I know that would be therapeutic for me if I were a Mets fan.

These two have consistently been lumped together as the poster children for the Mets ineptitude, which is actually unfair to Luis Castillo.

LUIS CASTILLO’S METS EULOGY

Castillo came to the Mets as an aging, yet still somewhat productive, veteran player. He is more a product of diminishing skills due to age than anything else. When you are a speed guy (370 career steals) and your legs go, it's bad news for your career. Everyone in the Mets organization will testify that he says the right things and works hard at what he does. He hit .302 with 20 steals and 77 runs scored in 2009. Not terrible for a second baseman. I feel badly for him that his signature moment as a Met is dropping a popup that cost them a game against the Yankees.

If you missed this game, tune in to the YES network. It is replayed as a Yankees Classic every three days or so.

The bottom line on Castillo as a player is that he has been a very solid everyday player who sometimes played at an All-Star level. He has 1900 hits, a .290 career average, the aforementioned steals, and 1,000 runs scored. Not to mention, he possesses a pair of Florida Marlins World Series Rings from 1997 and 2003. Although, he was really only a major contributor in the 2003 run.

OLLIE P’S METS EULOGY

Oliver Perez is on a completely different level. Perez showed early promise in San Diego before throwing up 5+ ERA numbers and being traded to Pittsburgh. He reclaimed his promise there for a year (12-10, 2.98), before repeating his career collapse in (5.85, 6.63 ERA’s last two years in Pittsburgh).

You know what they say….”Fool me once, shame on you….Fool me twice….ya’ can’t get fooled again” – unless you are the Mets.

G-Dubbs knows the deal....How come the Mets didn't?

Perez, as he has done in SD and PIT before, had 1 ½ good years with the Mets when he first joined them. And I use the term “good” inclusively. (15-10 3.56 & 10-7 4.22). Someway, somehow, the Mets thought this warranted a 3 year-$36million contract. Sometimes, it pays to have a pulse and throw left-handed.

Since signing, he has been accused of being lazy. He has come to camp overweight and out of shape. He refused an assignment to the minor leagues last year when the Mets wanted to send him down, opting instead to collect splinters while taking up a roster spot in the bullpen. Unlike Castillo, whose demise was more or less out of his own hands, Perez had a chance to do things differently. Instead, he chose to collect his $36-million and sit on it.

Ollie P opted for the glory and honor of a bullpen role over a minor league assignment. Because every team needs a lefty specialist who only comes in when the score differential is +/- 5 runs.

At 29 years old, I would almost expect him to sign on with another team, experience some success at some point, and then return to his dysfunctional self.

Finally, in throwing a bone to my cherished Mets fan friends, I’ve included a link to the 40-man roster of the Mets, so that you can look it over and relish the absence of LHP Oliver Perez and IF Luis Castillo:

http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=nym

NCAA Sunday Round of 32 Picks

Let's first look at how we made out yesterday. Butler made me proud! What a great day of basketball. WVU-Kentucky, Floriday-UCLA, SDSU-Temple, Butler-Pitt all nail biters. It was a good day overall for the Vibe. As a quick sidebar, shout out to Arizona State 125 lber Anthony Robles, who won an NCAA title on Saturday with one leg. It is a rarity to become an NCAA champion (only 10 weight classes in college) in one's wrestling career. Imagine how hard this kid had to work to do it with one leg.

Arizona State's Anthony Robles (left) became an NCAA Champion at 125lbs. on Saturday.

And now, a recap of how we made out with Saturday's picks:

SATURDAY GAMES (7-1)

#4 Kentucky over #5 West Virginia 

#2 Florida over #7 UCLA 

#12 Richmond over #13 Morehead St. 

#2 San Diego State over #7 Temple 

#8 Butler over #1 Pittsburgh

#3 BYU over #11 Gonzaga 

#5 Kansas State over #4 Wisconsin

#3 UConn over #6 Cincinnati 

Butler rides the momentum train into the Sweet 16. Richmond keeps rolling, inspired by its status as the Vibe's Capture Pool team. The party will almost certainly be over for San Diego State in the Sweet 16 against UConn. UConn just looks like they are on a roll right now, despite most of America killing the Big East.

Can we just give Kemba Walker tournament MVP right now? No one puts their guys on his shoulders like #15 of UConn.

PepeVibe's Overall Record: (31-9)

SUNDAY'S PICKS

#2 North Carolina over #7 Washington

#1 Duke over #8 Michigan

#1 Ohio State over #8 George Mason

#4 Texas over #5 Arizona

#3 Purdue over #11 Virginia Commonwealth

#11 Marquette over #3 Syracuse

#1 Kansas over #9 Illinois 

#2 Notre Dame over #10 Florida State  

 

Not many reaches here, with the exception of Marquette over 'Cuse. I didn't even have that in my bracket, it's just a gut feeling I have having seen both teams play thus far. Marquette has some momentum on their side, and they have won the only meeting this year between the teams. Kansas-Illinois could be a tight game, while both other #1's roll easily. Expect VCU to give Purdue some fits.

Maybe it's just me, but this is what I think of when I see "Notre Dame-Florida State". Charlie Ward and the Seminoles sputtering in South Bend during the 1993 season. Ward, of course, also ran the point for the 'noles.

 

NCAA First Round Recap & Saturday Picks

Before going into picks for Saturday’s round of 32, let’s recap the Friday games. The picks made in the previous blog by the Vibe are recounted. Green highlights are correct, red are incorrect:

FRIDAY AFTERNOON (5-3)

#4 Texas over #13 Oakland (West)

#9 Tennessee over #8 Michigan (West)

#2 Notre Dame over #15 Akron (Southwest)

#9 Villanova over #8 George Mason (East)

#5 Arizona over #12 Memphis (West)

#1 Duke over #16 Hampton (West)

#7 Texas A&M over #10 Florida State (Southwest)

#1 Ohio State over #16 UT-San Antonio (East)

Not a good start to Friday for the Vibe. There were three “toss up” games in the early slate, and all three were picked incorrectly. How embarrassing for Tennessee. Guess Bruce Pearl will have to turn in those creamsicle blazers (see previous blog).

The George Mason Patriot had a lot to cheer about on Friday. Has George Mason re-lit their spoiler flame of a few years ago? That seems to be the bravado if you read any articles about the team. Still not buying the hype. They're out next round.

 FRIDAY NIGHT (7-1)

#1 Kansas over #16 Boston University (Southwest)

#2 North Carolina over #15 Long Island (East)

#3 Purdue over #14 St. Peter’s (Southwest)

#11 Marquette over #6 Xavier (East)

#9 Illinois over #8 UNLV (Southwest)

#7 Washington over #10 Georgia (East)

#6 Georgetown over #11 VCU (Southwest)

#3 Syracuse over #14 Indiana State (East)

Marquette becomes the latest team to sell out on their real school colors in favor of the marketing angle of an alternate jersey. On the court, however, they are making some noise. First in the Big East Tournament, and now in the Dance. Rest assured that Syracuse does NOT want to be playing them tomorrow, with Marquette having won their only meeting.

The Vibe roared back with a vengeance on Friday Night, correctly picking the Marquette upset and the Illinois (kinda) upset. Georgetown stood in the way of a perfect session. While there were quite a few “no brainer” picks in here, 7-1 is a good showing.



FRIDAY TALLY: (12-4 overall)

FIRST ROUND RECORD: (24-8) a.k.a. a middle of the road showing

And now, without further ado, the picks for Saturday’s games. Some interesting games here could make for a wild Saturday afternoon. Upset picks are highlighted in yellow.

SATURDAY GAMES

#4 Kentucky over #5 West Virginia 

#2 Florida over #7 UCLA 

#12 Richmond over #13 Morehead St. 

#2 San Diego State over #7 Temple 

#8 Butler over #1 Pittsburgh

#3 BYU over #11 Gonzaga 

#5 Kansas State over #4 Wisconsin

#3 UConn over #6 Cincinnati 

You heard it here first. Pittsburgh is the first #1 to fall. Richmond becomes the first double-digit seed to advance to the Sweet 16 this year. Florida wins easily over UCLA. The Zags hang tough against BYU, but fall close, while Cincinnati does the same versus UConn. The two hardest to pick in the Saturday slate are Kentucky-West Virginia and Kansas State-Wisconsin. Should be a great day of basketball.

I'm all about Butler today. They'll give Pittsburgh all they can handle. I think they pull it off. If they do, can we PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE not have to hear a "the Butler did it" again. I realize how appealing it is to have a school whose name is a common noun, but do we really have to force the issue?



NCAA Friday Picks

Before making picks for today (Friday), I’d like to rundown the picks made for yesterday’s games, and highlight some intriguing occurrences.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON (7-1)

#5 West Virginia over #12 Clemson (East)
#8 Butler over #9 Old Dominion (Southeast)
#4 Louisville over #13 Morehead State (Southwest)
#7 Temple over #10 Penn State (West)
#4 Kentucky over #13 Princeton (East)
#1 Pittsburgh over #16 UNC-Asheville (Southeast)
#12 Richmond over #5 Vanderbilt (Southwest)
#2 San Diego State over #15 Northern Colorado (West)

Richmond gets love from the Vibe. Aside from justifying the Vibe’s only upset pick in the Thursday afternoon games, they kept the blogger in good position in the “charity” NCAA Capture Pool. Morehead State (home of Phil Simms) shocked most by downing Louisville, and the afternoon slate was highlighted by four “down-to-the-wire”  finishes. An exciting kickoff to the tournament.

THURSDAY EVENING (5-3)

#2 Florida over #15 UCSB (Southeast)
#3 BYU over #14 Wofford (Southeast)
#3 UConn over #14 Bucknell (West)
#13 Belmont over #4 Wisconsin (Southeast)
#10 Michigan State over #7 UCLA (Southeast)
#11 Gonzaga over #6 St. John's (Southeast)
#11 Missouri over #6 Cincinnati (West)
#5 Kansas State over #12 Utah State (Southeast)

Some bold picks were made for the evening games, and the results show accordingly. The Michigan State loss was frustrating, because they did not show up to play until midway through the 2^nd half. Belmont was a shot in the dark, based on the ineptitude of Wisconsin’s scoring of late, but was easily handled. There were not really any close finishes here, although some games were very competitive. St. John’s came out and laid an egg (as predicted)

THURSDAY overall (12-4) 2 upsets picked correctly, 3 upsets picked incorrectly.

Now, on to Friday’s picks. Upset picks highlighted in yellow.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON

#4 Texas over #13 Oakland (West)

#9 Tennessee over #8 Michigan (West)

#2 Notre Dame over #15 Akron (Southwest)

#9 Villanova over #8 George Mason (East)

#5 Arizona over #12 Memphis (West)

#1 Duke over #16 Hampton (West)

#7 Texas A&M over #10 Florida State (Southwest)

#1 Ohio State over #16 UT-San Antonio (East)

Tennessee could be playing for Bruce Pearl's job today.

Not many “upsettable” teams here in the early slate (famous last words, right?). I took the 9’s over the 8’s, but not with great conviction. Memphis could hang with Arizona, and TAMU-FSU will be interesting. Texas, Notre Dame, Duke, and Ohio State will roll.

FRIDAY NIGHT

#1 Kansas over #16 Boston University (Southwest)

#2 North Carolina over #15 Long Island (East)

#3 Purdue over #14 St. Peter’s (Southwest)

#11 Marquette over #6 Xavier (East)

#9 Illinois over #8 UNLV (Southwest)

#7 Washington over #10 Georgia (East)

#6 Georgetown over #11 VCU (Southwest)

#3 Syracuse over #14 Indiana State (East)

Some local teams in this one, with LIU (Brooklyn) and St. Peters (Jersey City) entering the fray. Unfortunately, they won’t fare too well. The best games of the night slate are Marquette-Xavier, Illinois-UNLV, and Washington-Georgia.

Some of the best things around are from Long Island....but it won't help them much today versus the Tar Heels.

 

NCAA Thursday Picks

Below are the Pepe Vibe's picks for the Thursday NCAA games. Upset's galore in the nightcap!

AFTERNOON SLATE

#5 West Virginia over #12 Clemson (East)
#8 Butler over #9 Old Dominion (Southeast)
#4 Louisville over #13 Morehead State (Southwest)
#7 Temple over #10 Penn State (West)
#4 Kentucky over #13 Princeton (East)
#1 Pittsburgh over #16 UNC-Asheville (Southeast)
#12 Richmond over #5 Vanderbilt (Southwest)
#2 San Diego State over #15 Northern Colorado (West)

Richmond will once again be first round bracket busters in 2011.

EVENING SLATE

#2 Florida over #15 UCSB (Southeast)
#3 BYU over #14 Wofford (Southeast)
#3 UConn over #14 Bucknell (West)
#13 Belmont over #4 Wisconsin (Southeast)
#10 Michigan State over #7 UCLA (Southeast)
#11 Gonzaga over #6 St. John's (Southeast)
#11 Missouri over #6 Cincinnati (West)
#5 Kansas State over #12 Utah State (Southeast)

Screw you Johnnies!