Back up in time, if you would, to late August, 2010. It is the day of your fantasy football draft. Your friends assemble at the commissioner’s house for the annual draft. The draft order gets picked, and you’re sweating bullets (and not because it’s 80° in the house). You’ve drawn the last pick, which means you get the 12th and 13th picks, respectively. You hope and pray that a front-line running back makes it to your draft position.
Meanwhile, the guy with the 11th pick is the one guy in the league who everyone knows does not do his homework. One year he drafted a defense in the 4th round. Another, a kicker in the 8th. He’s a fantasy football disaster and everyone looks forward to playing his team. You’re feeling confident that he will not snag any of your target players, as he is screwing up his draft.
 |
| Every group of friends has that one person who everyone thinks knows nothing about football. |
The draft begins and the big names start flying off the board…Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, MJD, Gore, Steven Jackson, Rashard Mendenhall all gone. The 11th pick comes and the clueless wonder takes Arian Foster of Houston….who? Nobody has him ranked in their first 3 rounds, and you rejoice at your fortune.
You can’t believe your luck, as you select Ryan Grant and Matt Schaub on the wrap around.
On the way back, with receivers starting to go off the board, he declares “I need to nab a top WR”, and subsequently picks Dwayne Bowe of Kansas City. You laugh to yourself (because he is your friend) and take sleeper Ryan Mathews and Arizona feature back Beanie Wells. You’re feeling great about getting 3 of the top RB’s and a top flight QB.
As he nabs Hakeem Nicks and Kevin Kolb with his next two picks, your “clueless” buddy continues to make head scratching moves throughout the draft. True to form, he takes Pittsburgh D/ST in Round 5 and Stephen Gotkowski in Round 6. As you figured, he is left with a paltry pool of players to select from for the remaining rounds, and ends up with a suspect roster of skill position players.
You had exactly ZERO of his players targeted on your radar. He grabs some mid-range wide receivers late in the draft, and even takes Michael Vick to “handcuff” Kevin Kolb. You spend the next few days laughing with other league owners about how screwed up his draft was.
OK, now fast-forward. The “clueless” wonder is 10-2. Your team, led by Matt Schaub, Brandon Jackson (picked up when Ryan Grant went down), Beanie Wells, and Ryan Mathews, is 3-9 and has had a disasterous season. Meanwhile, your boy has the following lineup in place for the playoffs:
QB Michael Vick 33.0 ppg
RB Arian Foster 24.5 ppg
RB Peyton Hillis 20.5 ppg
WR Dwayne Bowe 19.0 ppg
WR Hakeem Nicks 17.0 ppg
FLEX Brandon Lloyd 18.5 ppg
TE Marcedes Lewis 10.0 ppg
K Shayne Graham 8.0 ppg
D/ST Steelers 10.5 ppg
*Numbers when all players healthy
Now, be honest. NOBODY wants to see this guy’s team in the playoffs. This lineup averages 161.0 ppg!
His team is laden with fantasy football (and “real” football) breakout players.
Pep’s Vibe – The BREAKOUT Players
Michael Vick is playing out of this world, and has re-emerged on the fantasy radar as a much more consistent (and, incidentally, more valuable) player than he ever was in Atlanta.
| Michael Vick has matured - both on and off the field - since his days in Atlanta. |
Arian Foster was projected by many to have a solid year, but best running back in football? Nobody saw that coming – even owners who drafted him in the first 5 rounds of this year’s drafts.
___________________________________________________
Peyton Hillis was on nobody’s radar prior to the season. Jerome Harrison was handed the reins to the Browns rushing attack, and Monterio Hardesty was a sexy “sleeper” pick for those without faith in Harrison.
 |
| Peyton Hillis was given away by Denver for Brady Quinn and draft picks. Its debatable whether Browns fans or fantasy owners are more giddy about that trade. |
Dwayne Bowe looked to possibly be heading the route of Michael Clayton after Week 5 (breakout rookie season, followed by methodical fade away into oblivion). Since becoming BFF with Matt Cassel, Bowe has played out of his mind – at a level above what anybody, anywhere, at any time, ever thought possible.
___________________________________________________
Hakeem Nicks had upside prior to the season, but was hampered by an injury-plagued rookie year and existence in a Bradshaw/Jacobs dominated offense, with returning Pro Bowler Steve Smith as the primary receiving threat. He has emerged as one of the most explosive WR’s in football and is a bona fide star.
___________________________________________________
Brandon Lloyd was a much-traveled, much-overhyped wide receiver entering this season (stops with the 49ers, Bears, and Redskins pictured below). He was on his last legs in the NFL, having busted in quite a few places. In 2010, he has become a better Brandon Marshall than Brandon Marshall himself.
___________________________________________________
Mike Williams of Seattle would not be in the NFL if Pete Carroll did not abandon USC for the Seahawks. A poster child for the term “draft bust”, MWSEA was always big, but lacked speed and work-ethic. He has come out of nowhere (propelled by trades of TJ Housh-ma-zoad and Deion Branch) to become a top level WR.
___________________________________________________
Mike Williams of Tampa Bay was taken late in the 2010 NFL draft because of off-the-field issues. He quit the football team at Syracuse, and was even the second rookie WR drafted by the Bucs (behind Arrelious Benn). MWTB has emerged as a consistent producer and his rise has coincided with that of Josh Freeman.
___________________________________________________
Danny Amendola was a practice squad player who was cut by several NFL teams. He was athletic but lacked the “look” of a prototypical NFL wide receiver. St. Louis has found a way to use his speed, and he has emerged as one of rookie phenom Sam Bradford’s favorite targets.
 |
| When he was a practice squad player with the Cowboys, few believed Danny Amendola would develop into a fantasy PPR machine. |
Marcedes Lewis was a big tight end with a below average QB. He played in an offense that consistently struggled to move the ball and create plays in the passing game. Notice the previous two sentences were written in the past tense. Lewis has been a revelation this year on a surprising Jaguars team that is in control of its own destiny in the AFC South.
___________________________________________________
Concluding Thoughts
All fantasy football players realize that much will change from draft day throughout the season. However, it is difficult to remember a season in which so many unforeseen players have emerged as “must-start” players in all formats.
In addition to the players mentioned, the following players could be considered “Honorable Mention” fantasy surprises:
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, NWE
Danny Woodhead, NWE
Matt Cassel, KC
Josh Freeman, TB
Sam Bradford, STL
Steve Johnson, BUF
Mike Tolbert, SD
Jacob Tamme, IND
No comments:
Post a Comment