Detooled and Reloaded

2012 New York Yankees

SEASON PREVIEW

Last year's tool, AJ Burnett. (Calabrese/AP)

Last season's end left a bitter taste in the mouth of those in the Bronx. It was a season made memorable by the fantastic (Curtis Granderson, Robbie Cano, CC Sabathia, David Robertson, Mariano Rivera), the disappointing (AJ Burnett, Alex Rodriguez, Phil Hughes), and the controversial (Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada). At season's end the starting rotation was the number one area needing attention.

The fact of the matter is that with Andy Pettitte gone, Burnett was supposed to step up as a solid #2 and Hughes the #3. While Hughes battled injury all season, Burnett just proved to be more harm than help most of the year. His second consecutive Coors Field-like ERA punched his ticket out of town.

For Yankee fans, AJ Burnett has never looked so good. Wearing another team's jersey. What is that a roll of silver dollars in his back pocket?!?! (Brad Barr/US Presswire)

 Don't get me wrong. Ivan Nova was an exciting (apologies to Tim Tebow) surprise. Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon gave the team much more than could have been expected. It just wasn't supposed to be like this. The old baseball saying goes: "You can never have enough pitching."

The 2011 Yankees were evidence of that.

This year brings hope as aggressive, yet adulterous, general manager Brian Cashman worked fervently to address the starting rotation. Here's how:

1) Burnett and Colon OUT
2) Garcia signed a one year deal to pitch in more of a versatility role (a la Ramiro Mendoza)
3) Michael Pineda added via trade with Seattle
4) Hiroki Kuroda added via free agency.
5) Andy Pettitte un-retired to add depth

I'm really not sure what to make of Andy Pettitte coming back. I mean I will always love seeing him don the pinstripes. I just think it will be interesting if CC, Kuroda, Nova, Pineda, and Hughes are all pitching well come May. Do they go with a 6-man rotation? I hope not. Do they put Pettitte in the bullpen? I don't believe that's why he signed. Do they take one of the effective guys out of the rotation? That would suck as they are all young, developing starters. It's a situation that bears careful watching.

The last time Andy Pettitte threw off the Yankee stadium mound... Ceremonial first pitch on October 2nd...caught by Jorge Posada. Perhaps this year the roles in that battery will be reversed.

Overall, the Yankees will have another solid, 90+ win season this year. They will be a playoff team and will be fighting for their lives in October against an improved American League. Tampa Bay is their biggest threat in the AL East, and their 1-2-3 punch of Shields, Price, and Hellickson will be a force to be reckoned with. You can certainly see these two teams doing battle down the stretch this year.

OFFENSE

Projected Lineup
1. Derek Jeter SS
2. Curtis Granderson CF
3. Robinson Cano 2B
4. Alex Rodriguez 3B
5. Mark Teixeira 1B
6. Nick Swisher RF
7. Russell Martin C
8. Raul Ibanez / Andruw Jones DH
9. Brett Gardner LF

Why You Should PANIC...

I am not sure what the Yankees expect from the Raul Ibanez/Andruw Jones platoon, but that is the obvious weak spot in this lineup as it stands. Jones will play against lefties (2011 vs. LHP - .286, 8HR, 25RBI) and Ibanez will play against righties (2011 vs. RHP - .256, 16HR, 60RBI).

On paper that's a DH who had a stat line of .263, 24HR, 85RBI, which isn't bad. I just don't see this being a spot where they will be able to count on consistent production. I doubt it will end up as a perfect platoon. Likely they will use Eric Chavez, Eduardo Nunez, and even one of these two to spell some of their aging position players. Expect A-Rod, Tex, and even Jeter to grab some at-bats at DH this season.

No all-star caliber DH? The sky is falling!

Why You Should Feel Like You're Going to Win the World Series... 

Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson give you no reason to think they won't continue their torrid production from last season. Each was an MVP candidate last year, and expect each to have a solid year in 2012. Russell Martin fits perfectly as a role player in this lineup, and his defense was stellar last year.

Teixeira and Alex will put up run-producing numbers (I think Alex still has a lot of production left). Neither will be MVP-caliber, but each will contribute mightily to one of the best offenses in the AL. Derek Jeter bounced back to hit .297 last year, but only scored 84 runs. He'll be looking to continue proving his haters wrong.

His swag is so fresh that he kicked Minka to the curb. You wanna hate? He's beating you at life. (Peeping Tom/Some Blog) 

PITCHING

 Projected Rotation
1. C.C. Sabathia
2. Hiroki Kuroda
3. Ivan Nova
4. Michael Pineda
5. Phil Hughes
Others Receiving Votes: Freddy Garcia, Andy Pettitte

Projected Bullpen
Cory Wade
Boone Logan
Rafael Soriano
David Robertson (setup)
Mariano Rivera (closer)

Why You Should PANIC...

Another year of Boone Logan? Awesome. Coupled with Rafael Soriano, this is one of the more shaky 6th-7th inning pairs in baseball. Soriano came to the Yankees to boost his future stock as a closer, and ended up turning into a poor man's Tom Gordon. He needs a big rebound year, both for the Yankees and for himself. I know its frustrating, but Robertson can't pitch every day. They will need some of these other guys to step up and get some outs.

Why You Should Feel Like You're Going to Win the World Series...

While lacking the star-studded 1-2-3 punch that a team like Philadelphia has, the Yanks have a tremendous amount of depth in their starting arms now, and might have the best collective 1-5 in the AL.

C.C. Sabathia is a horse and a legitimate #1 starter - Cap'n Crunch or not. Hiroki Kuroda gives them a legitimate #2, as he has done nothing but improve since he came over from Japan. He is 37, but is coming off back-to-back seasons with a sub-3.40 ERA and around 200 innings. He must be thrilled that he isn't stuck in run-support purgatory anymore. The 3rd-5th spots are less proven, but the odds are good. Pineda and Nova were ROY candidates last year, and Hughes was an all-star two years ago. Even if just 2 of those 3 have a solid year, the Yanks rotation will be formidable. 

Kuroda is being counted on as a bona fide #2 in this rotation. He could be the biggest key to the Yankees success this year.

Mariano Rivera is the greatest closer of all-time and has done nothing to show that we should not expect vintage Mo' this year. Robertson gives them a solid, dominant strikeout pitcher to set Rivera up. You may not know this, but Robertson finished 10th in AL Cy Young voting last year. Remarkable for a relief pitcher on any team. Even more remarkable for a relief pitcher on Mariano Rivera's team.

FINAL OUTLOOK

The Yankees are built, if nothing else, for regular season success. They have a lineup with few weak spots and a rotation that is deep from 1-5. They have the best setup-closer tandem in baseball. As is usually the case in Yankee land, the question is can they succeed in the postseason? They've seen plenty of Yankee teams hum right along in the regular season, only to run into a swift playoff exit. The answer to this question? You will have to read tomorrow's MLB preview.

RECORD: 96-66 (1st in the AL East)

P.S.
It's worth noting that Joba Chamberlain and his injury were not mentioned at all in this blog, thus cementing his status as irrelevant in Yankee-land. 

Pansy Scheme

2012 New York Mets

SEASON PREVIEW

"But they moved the fences in" said a Mets fan who I spoke with about this season, "Jason Bay and David Wright will have more jacks." That's cute. It's important to remember that they won't be moving the fences back out when the Mets are playing the field. As these two Mets thumpers will be trying to get their HR totals above 20, the opposing teams will be taking full advantage of the hitter-friendly modification to the ballpark. 

On second thought, can we just have the grounds crew take down the fence after the bottom half? (Jim Mancari)

 The team is clearly in a rebuilding phase. Likely, they are at least two carefully planned years away from returning to relevance in the NL East. And I feel that's being pretty generous. They are a team of "IF's."  

If David Wright and Jason Bay return to form. 

If Johan Santana and Ike Davis stay healthy.

If Lucas Duda, Daniel Murphy, and Dillon Gee build on last year.

If Pelfrey, Niese, and Dickey step up and have career years they've proven capable of in the past.

And the list could go on and on. It's just too many things that need to break right. They have the right manager in place to oversee these young guys, but they are several key pieces away from being competitive. A successful year for the Mets would be to see growth from their young guys, along with sense and brains from their front office.

OFFENSE

Projected Lineup
1. Andres Torres CF
2. Daniel Murphy 2B
3. Jason Bay LF
4. Ike Davis 1B
5. David Wright 3B
6. Lucas Duda RF
7. Josh Thole C
8. Ruben Tejada SS

Get Excited About ....

These guys play hard for Terry Collins, and a few of them enjoyed promising "jumpstart" campaigns last year. Lucas Duda hit .292 with 10 HR and 50 RBI in just over half a season, giving fans promise that he will develop into a run producer. Daniel Murphy has proven he can hit at the big league level (.320, 6, 49 last year) and looks to make his mark as the everyday second baseman.

Don't get excited about his defense though. We didn't see this in the Tom Emanski instructional video. (Jeff Roberson/AP)

Be Unsure About...

Josh Thole showed he could develop into a serviceable big league backstop, but the Mets really need him to take a step forward this year to sell fans that he's the answer behind the plate. Ruben Tejada faces a tall task in replacing the Mets most popular player, but is said to be among the slickest-fielding young shortstops in baseball. Offensively, he's a work in progress, but you can get by with your shortstop hitting .260 if he's saving runs on defense. Tejada hit .284 last year in 328 at-bats, but the Mets would be happy with .260 and gold glove caliber defense. We will see. Andres Torres is likely going to be shopped for prospects as soon as his stock rises. There are always plenty of teams looking for a speedy 4th outfielder come trade deadline.

Thole shows some flashes of brilliance at the plate but is very streaky. A consistent offensive season would cement him as a nice complimentary piece that the Mets can use in their rebuilding. (AP Images)

Throw Up About...

Jason Bay is an absolute disaster. He is one of the main reasons the Mets are in their current situation. Think about this...the Mets had a choice in the 2009-10 winter to go after Matt Holliday or Jason Bay. They pursued Bay as their #1 guy. How did that work out?
 

Jason Bay 2010  - .259, 6HR, 47RBI 2011  -  .245, 12HR, 57RBI

Matt Holliday 2010  -  .312 28HR, 103RBI 2011  -  .296, 22HR, 75RBI (...oh, and a World Series title)

In case you're wondering, this is not a Monday Morning QB job. I killed the Mets for going after Bay at the time. They had some fly ball formula that showed that Bay would've had more home runs at CitiField. Nice formula.

Ohhh...THAT'S who came up with the Jason Bay fly ball formula (see left).

David Wright is officially in career decline and does not look to be pulling himself out of it any time soon. His plate discipline is deteriorating, his power numbers are down, and he has no one in this lineup to protect him. Expect big strikeout numbers again as he gets impatient with the junk he is given. One more season like last (.254, 14, 61) and he can take a seat on Jason Bay's lap in the disappointment chair.

Ike Davis could really be in any of these three categories. I feel bad for the poor guy, but he just can't get out of his own way. It won't be his performance that puts him in this category, but his inability to stay healthy. Mets fans should expect another up-and-down season for Davis in which he gives them a spark, but misses significant time along the way.

PITCHING

Projected Rotation
1. Johan Santana
2. Mike Pelfrey
3. Jonathan Niese
4. R.A. Dickey
5. Dillon Gee

Projected Bullpen
Pedro Beato
Bobby Parnell
Manny Acosta
Ramon Ramirez
Jon Rauch (setup)
Frank Francisco (closer)

Get Excited About...

If there is any place where they have some promise, it is their bullpen. Though they lack a true "closer," their back four of Acosta, Ramirez, Rauch, and Francisco is solid. If they had a top closer in here we'd be calling them among the best bullpen in baseball. As it stands, they are still solid.

Please don't tell Frankie I said he's not a true closer.

Be Unsure About...

Obviously, Johan Santana. What will you get from him? I sure don't know the answer to that. My gut feeling is that when he is healthy, he will give you 6 solid innings. Cautious optimism should be tied to Jonathan Niese and Dillon Gee as well, as their continued development could leave the Mets one legitimate arm away from a solid 2013 rotation. The jury is still out on Gee. I can definitely see a sophomore slump as a possibility...he's not going to sneak up on anyone this year.

Throw Up About...

Mike Pelfrey and Bobby Parnell. Each once considered to be a highly touted Mets prospect, both have one foot out the door going into this year. Parnell has done far less in his career than Pelfrey and still is considered to be relatively young. Pelfrey has shown dominance (first 10 starts of 2010) which makes his situation a more urgent one. He is one more down year away from being a staple in the Kansas City Royals rotation.

Ironic? The stereotypical "ball of nerves," Big Pelf has left many Mets fans with their head buried in a bucket over the last year and a half. His placement in the "make you vomit" section is warranted. (AP Images)

FINAL OUTLOOK

The team plays hard all year. A few of the young guys prove they should stick around, while some others prove to be expendable. They'll be pesky and hang around (within 8 games of first) until the All-Star break, but ultimately they will fade in the second half. They get inconsistent #4/5 starter-type production out of Pelf, Niese, Dickey, and Gee, which will not be enough to make a run at a .500 record.

RECORD: 77-85 (5th in a very competitive NL East)

Hunger Game: A Teblog

The attention-hawking New York Jets are at it again. Hungry to snag an opportunity to grab the NY football spotlight, the team made a splash by trading for Tim Tebow from the Broncos in exchange for a pair of draft picks. I'm not a Jet hater....not by a long shot. In fact, let me make two more things clear right off the bat. I'm not a Tim Tebow hater, and I'm sure not a Mark Sanchez hater.

Big Mouth Billy Bass and company have found yet another way to grab the NFL spotlight. One thing is for sure, when Tim Tebow kneels down to kiss the feet of Jesus, there's at least one person in the Jets locker room who will be right down there next to him.

In fact, I think the sequence of events in this whole situation left a number of people getting a raw deal. First, Peyton Manning got one in getting released by the Colts. Then, Mark Sanchez got his first raw deal when the Jets went after Peyton (while pretending they weren't) and superficially "rewarded" Sanchez with an extension when they didn't land Manning.

Manning goes to Denver. Raw deal for Tebow. Although you really can't kill Denver for doing what they did, given that their upper management were not the ones who brought in Tebow. But it was a tough pill to swallow for Tebow.

You can kill his mechanics and upside as an NFL QB all you want, but the fact of the matter is that in his second year he took a team to the playoffs (while going 7-4 as a starter) and then was sent packing. That my friends is a raw deal. (AP Images)

Tebow gets traded to the Jets. Raw deal #2 for Sanchez. Raw deal for Drew Stanton. Jets totally pulled the rug out from under him. He chose to come to NY over other teams who were offering competitive money and a guaranteed backup job. A real classy move by the Jets. Good luck signing free agents in the future. At least they did the right thing by trading him to a better situation, but their reputation as an organization takes a hit with that "bang up job."

Again, I don't wish any ill will towards the Jets. I'm just being objective. They could not be more inept as an organization. They just don't understand what it takes to build a championship team. I mean they really think that Tebow is going to come in and help clear up their locker room issues. He's the backup quarterback! What's more, don't they see that Tebow-mania has much more of a chance to divide their locker room than unify it? You have a bunch of selfish guys in your locker room, so you bring in someone who's going to get more attention than anyone on the team....and won't even really be seeing the field. It's laughable.

What team succeeds without two starting quarterbacks? What organization succeeds without two CEO's? What ship navigates without two captains? (AP Images)

The football side of the move shows no common sense either. Tebow will back up Sanchez. Tebow can't run the same offense as Sanchez does, so what happens if he gets hurt? If the Jets are 9-1 and Sanchez gets hurt, they're gonna change their whole offense? Smart planning.

They will use him to run the wildcat. Really? How many plays do you plan on running out of the wildcat during a game? 4...maybe 5? Some goal line situations? You're paying Tebow a lot of money to be on the field such a small amount. And if he sees the field more than that, you're paying Mark Sanchez a lot of money to come out of the game for 10+ plays.

To top it off, we all know how impatient Jets fans are. As soon as Sanchez starts to struggle or the team starts to lose, they will be calling for Tebow.

As much as people think Sanchez had a "down" year last year, there are teams that would kill to get Sanchez's first three years out of a first round QB pick. Like Denver for instance.

It basically comes down to this...


Neither Mark Sanchez nor Tim Tebow will be able to grow and develop effectively in the current situation. They will not push each other, because they are two different types of quarterbacks. Tebow won't develop as a passer if he's just running the wildcat as a backup, and Sanchez won't develop as a leader if he's coming off the field for some key plays throughout the game.

As for the Jets, all I can say is at least they'll have the spotlight on them..

NFL Two-fer Thursday

Thank you, NFL for providing us with bloggable topics as we wait for baseball spring training to wind down !!! It's been a wild offseason week in the NFL, and next week proves to be quite the interesting one as well with Manning on the market! Lastly, happy birthday to my wonderful wife! Enjoy.
 
Un-canonized Saints? 

Yet another story of greed, coverup, and corruption in the Catholic Church. The feel good (for some) rise of the New Orleans Saints in the wake of Hurricane Katrina - behind the lovable Drew Brees - has been dealt a significant blow. Confirmed reports of defensive player bounties have hit the airwaves this week, as they have found themselves in the middle of a brewing controversy.

See...the Saints aren't the only bounty hunters with religiously-driven intentions. OK....I know I sold out by going with the obvious pop culture reference (a picture of Dog), but sometimes you just take what's given. Got it brah?

 To most, the big issue arises from the payment of bounties related to injuring opposing players. It's one thing (albeit illegal) to offer up incentive for a player with the most tackles, most sacks, or defensive play of the game. It's another to offer up money for a player to go out and mess with someone's career.

Viewed with an objective critical lens, this flies in the face of everything that unions have ever stood for. Unions are predicated on the collective strength of a unified membership that operates in the best interests of the group. Members look out for each other....they ensure that others are able to perform their work as effectively as possible for as long as possible.

Imagine if the United Association of Plumbers and Pipefitters hung its members out to dry like the NFLPA did? Who would be there to watch over these guys?

 The NFL Players Association actually defended the Saints players involved.... (?!?!?!) I guess because they didn't want any of them to get in trouble? That's got to be it. What about protecting the players who they went after? An interesting piece of this whole argument.

The Vibe's Take

Listen, I'm not going to overblow anything here and flip about this being so incredibly terrible. If the Saints defense had a bounty program, it failed with flying colors this year. That said, I can't get on board with those (some even ex-NFL players like Mike Golic) who are completely minimizing this. Imagine the precedent it would set if no action is taken. Open season on defensive bounties around the league. The "boys will be boys" and "it's a warrior's game" arguments don't hold any water here.

Gregg Williams penalty? He has to fish-hook himself for 8 hours straight while watching re-runs of Mr. Belvidere.

I can almost see some playful non-injury-related bounties adding to team camaraderie and helping a defense unite. However, bounties that promote going after someone's livelihood are just not right....even if it is against Brett Favre. That said, I'm also not on board with a complete decapitation of everyone involved. NFL disciplinary action should be taken against Sean Payton, Gregg Williams, and any other coach deemed to have involvement or knowledge of the program....but no one should lose their job over this. Fine them, strip them of draft picks. Make it harder for them to have success. That's appropriate. Meanwhile, the NFLPA should make it a point to advise its members to avoid this type of practice in the future.

The Vibe coming to the defense of Brett Favre? What's next...props to Jay Cutler?

Pey-ment Delinquency 


Peyton Manning is no longer a Colt. Not to have a predictable, cookie-cutter opening...but I still can't believe it even as I type. I watched the press conference yesterday in disbelief as the most skilled (carefully stated....not "greatest") quarterback in the history of the NFL was cast aside at the not-so-old age of 35. The team that turned from a laughingstock for most of the 1980's and 1990's, into a viable Super Bowl threat in the 2000's has turned its back on the man who carried them there.

From 1977 to 1999 (21 seasons), the Colts had ZERO seasons of 10 wins or more. From 1999 (Peyton's second season) to present day, they had ELEVEN. Sometimes when a team has success, you are able to say "Well, he's pretty good...but they could have done well without him too." This is not one of those cases. Peyton Manning WAS the Colts for 14 years. No team's success (Pats included) was more closely tied its quarterback than the Colts. So, I ask you...where's the loyalty?

Cut that meat! Cut that meat! ...One of Peyton's best commercials. Kind of ironic given the current situation, no?

 You can tell me that they have paid him over $150 million in his career. You can cite the money he's made on endorsement deals. You can use these to try to tell me that he's been handsomely taken care of by the Colts, and that he should be on his way.

And, you'd be dead wrong.

The Vibe's Take

They go 2-14 with him on the path to recovery all year. They happen into the first overall pick. And, all of a sudden...they panic.  They see a blue chip, "can't miss" (really?!?!) QB prospect available, and they cast aside the best quarterback they have ever had (apologies to Johnny Unitas...it's fact).

He's injured you say? He's getting old you say? For all the success, media attention, and goodwill he's brought them over the years...doesn't he deserve a chance to find that out with the Colts. Shouldn't he get to leave the team on his own terms? They'd owe him a $28 million dollar roster bonus? So what!

There's a sap willing to overpay at every NFL draft!

Furthermore, they could have likely gotten a team to mortgage its entire draft (Ditka-style) for the chance to take Luck. They could have built a young, talented foundation and added some pieces to help right the ship. Instead, they are going to roll the dice with Andrew Luck. Yeah, it's definitely rolling the dice, no matter what you saw from Luck in college. The Colts have been down this road before....twice! They've seen both sides of it. In 1990, they took "can't miss" Purdue QB Jeff George with the top pick. The consensus was that the Indiana native would lead the Colts to the promised land. How'd that work out? In 1998, they were on the good end of things, taking "can't miss" Peyton over another "can't miss" named Ryan Leaf. Many teams had Leaf projecting as a better NFL player.

Who can forget Jeff George's 1991 "No Trim 'Til the Colts Win" campaign that saw the team go winless through Week 10. Seriously, if there is any consolation prize for the Colts for drafting him, it has to be the super-mullet and porn 'stache that George brought to the fold.

My angle isn't about the money....Obviously not. I realize that Jim Irsay went to that press conference and stated that he "wanted to keep" Manning, instead of cutting him loose. They just "couldn't afford" him. I just don't buy that whole "we're loyal to Peyton, but he's off our team" angle, regardless of what the financial factors are. What if Andrew Luck is Jeff George? (or worse....Ryan Leaf) How ridiculous will the Colts look?

It's a humbling dose of reality for NFL fans everywhere. Peyton Manning sent packing.

The Next Big Thing: Lin or Out?

The most talked-about athlete on the planet right now...

At the time of my last blog, I must admit that I had no idea who Jeremy Lin was. Lin played a collective 48 minutes in 20 games prior to February 1st. Two weeks later, he has me writing the first non-Lebron NBA blog since February of 2011 (Knicks acquisition of Carmelo Anthony).

The Knicks' sheepish start to the season had sufficiently stomped out my NBA rooting interest after the NFL season. It was promising to be a long month and a half before baseball opening day. The tide began to sway on February 10th with a simple text message from my wife: "Lin is amazing"  My reply: "who?" 

This fan likely had no idea who Jeremy Lin was last Valentine's Day.

What prompted the exchange of texts was Lin's dominating 38 point performance against the Lakers, in a game that the Knicks were without both Carmelo and Amare. It was this performance (not his previous three 20+ point efforts) that catapulted him to "household name" status. He absolutely lit up the Lakers on ESPN. A remarkable run for an undrafted player from basketball power Harvard who bounced around last year and was on nobody's radar yet this year.

How big is Jeremy Lin? Go ahead, type "jer" into google. The first three quick search terms are (in order):

jeremy lin
jersey shore
jerry sandusky

I'm not making that up. Try it. That's how big he is. Bigger than Snooks. Bigger than Sandusk.

Can't hide from Google...

OK...so 3 of the first 4 quick search terms...who cares about Jersey Gardens anyway?

In the 7 games since Lin began to rack up 30+ minutes per night, he has averaged 25.0+ppg with roughly 10 assists per. He has pulled the Knicks out of an 8-15 hole to .500 and into the 8th playoff spot in a span of 10 days. He may have single-handedly saved Mike D'Antoni's job. He has provided, in advance, the spark that people were expecting from a healthy Baron Davis.

He has endeared himself to America as the lovable underdog. The sports fan loves to embrace something they don't see every day. As an Asian-American player who is Harvard-educated, Lin would fit that criteria.

Only 3 players in the history of the NBA have come from Harvard...His Taiwanese heritage contributes to the his lore, as he is among the few Asian players in the NBA.

Will he have staying power? Only time will tell...but usually you don't put up the type of numbers that Lin has the past ten days and then fade away into obscurity. Is he a 25ppg player? Probably not. When the Knicks are at full strength, the scoring responsibility will be spread around. Lin could be a solid 15.0 ppg, 8.0 apg presence on the floor going forward.

Super Bowl Shuffle of Emotions: To Hate or to Hate?

That is the question...

Not that I've had much vested interest in any Super Bowl since January of 1996, but it's particularly troubling to watch two teams I've come to despise play in the big game.....for the second time in 4 years. I can deal with a Packers-Steelers Super Bowl. I can get behind an underdog story like the 2008 Cardinals or 2009 Saints. What I can't deal with is having no dog in the fight. Not even one to be dog for a day.

Who can't appreciate a feel good underdog story like the 2009 Saints? Re-energizing a city ravaged by Hurricane Katrina, Brees and the Saints were easy to root for against the Colts.

As much as the fan in me wants to hate on these two teams, there clearly needs to be credit given where credit is due. It's not easy to make it to a Super Bowl. You have to be good, and you have to be lucky. The Patriots and Giants have made their respective runs through the playoffs with a healthy combination of the two.

THE GOOD
Each team is here because they got hot as the playoffs ensued, albeit the Pats had sustained success in the regular season. These teams have had prolific quarterback play all season long, and their defenses are playing well at the right time. A Patriots defense who was among the worst statistically of all-time, yielded just 15ppg in two playoff games. Meanwhile, the Giants defense has re-emerged as a dominant pass rushing force, making the Falcons, Packers, and 49ers offenses look inept (13ppg in three playoff games).

Even though they've annoyingly modified Naughty's "O.P.P." for this guy, he's an absolute beast on the field. The continuity of monster pass rushers on the Giants D-line (Strahan to Osi to Kiwanuka to Tuck to JPP) is uniquely spectacular.

THE LUCKY
Neither team is here because they "made a play" in a big spot in the championship game. Each team is here because their championship game was handed to them. Don't get me wrong, you don't get to a Super Bowl without making a play at some point in your league championship game. It's just that coming down to the wire of each game, it was a costly miscue that yielded the championship result.

Lee Evans was brought in to give the Ravens a viable target to replace Derrick Mason opposite Anquan Boldin. Instead, he did nothing all season, and waited until the worst possible moment to remind Ravens fans he was still on the team.

For the Patriots, it was Ravens WR Lee Evans who didn't maintain possession of the sure-to-be game winning TD. Sure, Pats corner Sterling Moore got a piece of it once Evans had caught it. But an NFL WR makes that catch 9 times out of 10.

The saving grace for Pats fans is that the Ravens then had a chance to send it to overtime after the miscue, and botched the FG attempt.

For the Giants, it was the referees who gave them a chance to advance. Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled in the waning minutes of the game. A fumble that would have given the 49ers a certain chance at winning the game in regulation with a FG. Inexplicably, the zebras blew it dead for forward progress. Even though 99 times out of 100 they let the defense make the tackle in that spot. If that was forward progress, there should be no such thing as a "good second effort" on short yardage. It should be blown dead on the initial contact. Mini rant complete.

Not to be believed...this non-fumble left 50% of the 49er fans in America (data based on a controlled sample size of 2) on the ledge the morning after the game.

The saving grace for Giants fans is that the 49ers also had a chance to seal the game out, but their rookie kick returner handed the ball back to the Giants in two key spots. The last of which set up the game-winning FG in overtime.

SUPER BOWL OUTLOOK
With the sour grapes out of the way, I think this is going to be a very competitive Super Bowl. Having listened to talk radio the last 2 weeks in NYC, the Giants fans have soured me on them even more. Many are not giving the Pats the respect they deserve, assuming that victory is a foregone conclusion. Luckily for Eli and Co., they are likely preparing for the Pats as they have for each playoff game this postseason. While their fans might be taking the Pats lightly, it's certain the actual Giants are not.

The Patriots offensively are going to exploit the Giants weak linebacking corps. Yes, they have played improved football of late. However, it is still the weak link of their defense. Expect Belichick to gameplan for that. You might think they will be hurt by the absence of a healthy Gronkowski (he'll be limited, at best), but you can be sure that Tom Brady will find other targets to pick up the slack. I can see someone like Danny Woodhead coming out of nowhere and having a big impact on the game.

Unheralded Jake Ballard made a number of clutch receptions in the Giants 24-20 victory over the Pats earlier this year, including the game-winning touchdown. Expect an unsung hero like Ballard or the Patriots Danny Woodhead to step up and become a household name on Sunday.

The Giants offensively will attack the Pats secondary. Opposing QB's have blown away the Patroits all season long, and expect a quality performance from Eli Manning. They will have to find a way to control the clock too, to keep Brady and his offense on the sidelines. I'd expect Cruz and Manningham to have a big role in the possession game, with Eli taking periodic shots down the field to Nicks. A sleeper player for the Giants heading into this game is TE Jake Ballard. Eerily #85 (David Tyree?), Ballard was an important part of the Giants regular season win over the Patriots. He'll make an impact again today.

I hate myself for doing this, but....

The Pick:   GIANTS 38, PATRIOTS 35

Championship Vibes

To all my loyal readers..I apologize. As you know, it's been quite awhile since I've blogged. It's been a combination of a hectic personal schedule and a lack of topics on which to vibe. I will admit that I did drop the ball on NFL playoff picks to this point, but what better place to start than with the conference championship games.

We've got quite the pair (TWSS) of matchups this weekend... Enjoy the games and keep the blog handy as your go-to piece of pregame analysis!

AFC: #1 New England Patriots vs. #2 Baltimore Ravens

In the AFC, you have the teams that have been the two best all season long. A prolific offense against a dynamic defense. Super Bowl champion Tom Brady against Super Bowl champion Ray Lewis. This game is intriguing from a tactical standpoint.

We aren't used to seeing a ton of points out of the Baltimore Ravens. Joe Flacco is usually good for 150-180 yards per game, while they play a ball control offense with Ray Rice (25-30 touches). When Rice breaks out, they are capable of putting up 30 points. However, if held in check, they are capable of, say, losing 12-7 to the Jacksonville Jaguars.



Paul Posluszny and the Jaguars average defense were able to bottle up Rice and shut down Baltimore's offense. It's not going to take a Herculean defensive effort to accomplish that.

With a reliance on their defense, Baltimore has been able to shut down opposing offenses and keep their offense running efficiently enough to win 12 regular season games. They are top 3 in the NFL in fewest defensive yards allowed and fewest points allowed. As usual, the Ravens can also score on defense, with 5 defensive TD's on the year.
We also aren't used to seeing a ton of points out of the New England Patriots....in the first minute of the game. The Patriots averaged 32.1ppg, while compiling just over 500 yards of offense per game. Among the top 3 in the league in both categories.  Their Hall of Fame QB threw for over 5,000 yards this year. They have the best tight end in football, along with another guy who's a top 5 tight end in football. They've proven that they can run up and down the field, and score almost at will.

The problem is that they also were in the the top 2 in the league in defensive yards allowed, and they yielded nearly as many passing yards as their QB threw for. Their secondary was suspect all season long, as they clearly felt the effects of getting rid of Brandon Meriweather.

OUTLOOK

I just don't see how Baltimore is going to do enough on offense to capitalize on New England's "poor" defense. I delibrately highlight the word "poor," because in a game like this you throw out all the stats, and anything that has happened previously this season. The Pats defense played outstandingly last week against the run-oriented Broncos. Minimize it with Tebow talk all you want, but at the end of the day they allowed only 10 points to a team that put up 30 on the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Brady's going to be finding holes downfield in the Ravens secondary, and the birds will need a couple of timely turnovers to swing the tide. They'll also need to control the clock with Rice and keep Brady and company on the sidelines.  Flacco will need to have a breakout game in the passing game, not necessarily with statistics, but with timely plays made down the field. Third down conversions, big plays to get them down the field, etc.

Your friendly neighborhood garbage man? Try again...outspoken Ravens safety Ed Reed.  

Ed Reed said it best this week. He knows the deal. The Ravens had trouble putting away the Texans and TJ Yates. How are they going to rally the troops enough to dominate the Patriots? This game will not be as close as people think.

PREDICTION:             Patriots 35, Ravens 24
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NFC: #2 San Francisco 49ers vs. #4 New York Giants

In the NFC, you have the two hottest teams. A great defensive team whose offense is hot, against a great offensive team whose defense is hot. Super Bowl champion Eli Manning vs. arguably the best defensive front seven in football. Old-school Tom Coughlin vs. wunderkind Jim Harbaugh.



The brash, new baby-faced players coach versus the dignified, canvas-faced disciplinarian.

Yes, San Fran is the #2 seed. However, many were picking the Saints as the odds-on favorite to challenge the Packers. The 49ers defense has been stellar all year, but their offense has been a relative question mark. Even as they methodically won games during the regular season, it was questionable whether they'd be able to make enough plays in the passing game to compete with the big dogs. Well, you got your answer last week, as Alex Smith and Vernon Davis "out-Breesed" Drew Brees and company. They seem to have the necessary mix of offense, defense, and moxie of a championship squad. They are as hot as any team in football.
As an objective blogger, I have to be honest about the Giants. I was super skeptical when they entered the playoffs and fans spoke that it would be "just like '07" because of their inconspicuous route to the playoffs. I didn't think they had enough to pull it together and take down any of the NFC's elite teams. And I was right to a point, because it's not like '07.

In their Super Bowl season, they had a stellar defense most of the year, and were able to pull it together on offense during their playoff run. With this current team, they have had a stellar offense for most of the year, and have seemed to have pulled it together on defense during the playoffs. Either way, they have definitely started coming together at the right time. Their defensive front gets as much pressure on the QB as any in football. They have been clicking on offense and making plays when it counts. They are as hot as any team in football.


OUTLOOK

This one has been killing me all week. As a rooting fan, I have no dog in this fight. I can't root for the Giants, because they are a hated NFC East rival. I can't root for the 49ers, because I grew up hating them and stupid Steve Young. My wife is a die hard Giants fan. My brother-in-law is a die hard 49ers fan (who's stuck around for the last 9 years as they've been abysmal). Either way, I'm at the end of the family bragging rights line.

This could be me tonight once my wife reads this blog...

That said, I have no choice but to be purely objective and pick this as a sports journalist would. Both teams are hot, so I give neither an edge there. New York's defense is playing well, but have just pulled it together the last 4-5 weeks or so. And they are still susceptible to big plays, which San Fran was able to exploit New Orleans with last week. The Niners, on the other hand, have played consistently good defense all year. They've been less susceptible to big plays, and will be able to get pressure on Eli.

The Giants offense is clearly superior, but it is definitely built on taking chances down the field. If Eli makes 1 or 2 mistakes in that regard, it could decide this one. The Niners offense (even with last week's performance) is not going to put a ton of points up on this Giants defense. However, they also don't take as many risks down the field, and will likely try to control the clock and keep Eli on the sidelines.

With absolutely no confidence in the pick at all.....

PREDICTION:             49ers 27, Giants 24